Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 08:25:35 PM

Quote from: tertius993 on Today at 08:06:57 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 07:13:48 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 06:40:54 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 02:36:36 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on Today at 01:28:42 AM

Good we dropped the 2021 number 1 notch today

Little by little, we are going to eek out those 2021 dates.. .. but I would imagine that the odds are quite high that it is likely to take more than 82 days to accomplish such eekening...

Not impossible to do it in 82 days, but seems like a long shot-- maybe greater than 90% odds of taking longer than 82 days.

Poor us.

Don't get me wrong. I am not much of a subscriber to any theories regarding "down before up" since there are several ways in which we might not end up accomplishing ONLY "UP only" from here... so in that regard, I am continuously suggesting that folks make sure that they are prepared for UP.. .. but still, how could we assign less than 90% odds towards ONLY 82 days remaining to knock out the remaining 2021 dates?

so we take off now and smoke them and 82 bagger.

you say 1 in 10

Approximately 1 in 10.. something in that range.. Are you in the mood to bet me, you gambling fool? hahahahahaha no homo..

I couldn't resist to address you as a "fool".. it just seemed to fit well.

By the way, I would not be willing to give anyone the level of odds that I believe to be likely on me, but I might be willing give odds that are slightly greater than 50/50.. .. .. but yeah, so maybe that reflects that I am not as confident that I say, since I am not willing to give the full odds that I ascribe.. so then a balance might be considering what odds I might be willing to give, and surely each day the odds might be different from the previous day (and even changes on the hour could cause the odds to change). so today (or earlier today at that particular moment) I was saying (and still I say, for now) 90%-ish odds..

but with the passage of time and if we were to continue to stay above $67,483, then the odds surely would continue to come down with the passage of each day that we were to stay above $67,483, if such a thing were to happen, and then also questioning how far we might end up going above $67,483 would also likely be a factor and would also end up changing the odds in my own head.. So, for sure, odds are a kind of ephemeral concept that have to be captured at the time that they are proclaimed because various subsequent events could end up changing how they are perceived and assessed and based on the passage of time and event(s) could change such assessment of odds radically and/or materially in one direction or another.

What is your basis for calculating these odds? Show your workings ...

It is just off the top of my head, and so I see no reason to show my work, especially since it merely my opinion, and you are free to come to your own conclusions, including if you want to enter into a bet with me in regards to your coming to some other conclusion and considering my opinion (assessment of odds to be outrageous) and/or to the opposite of your own in some kind of a bettable way, yet like I said most likely I would not be betting the odds that I believe to be likely, which maybe goes to show some lack of conviction on my behalf in regards to the specifics and what I would be willing to stand behind in terms of a possible negotiation of a bet.

Why would you consider my assessed assertion of probabilities to be needing any kind of showing in regards to how I arrived at it? ..

and yeah sure, I will concede that if I were forced to show my work (or to enter into an actual bet), then that kind of exercise or forced action from me in regards to the topic might end up showing a number that more actually reflects to where I am wiling to put money.. ..

yet at the same time, you likely realize that almost no one is going to enter into a bet that he believes to be merely 50/50 odds unless he is mostly just interested in the idea (and/or funzies) of the bet, so most of the time, any rational person entering into a bet would prefer to ONLY enter into bets in which he believes the odds to be sufficiently in his favor, so his entering into a bet or playing certain odds might already show some kind of a cushion that the guy wants to feel that he has in any bet that he is willing to enter into.

In other words, it seems to me that any normal rational guys (not talking about compulsive gamblers) likely ONLY enter into bets when they perceive the odds of the bet to be sufficiently in their favor of winning... and yeah for sure there are going to be some differences in personalities in regards to differences between folks who are more risk averse and other folks who are more risk seekers... and surely, there could be some luck in regards to which folks end up being correct in their bets, yet outcome does not even necessarily mean that such losing person entered into a bad bet, especially if the odds were actually in his favor (not merely his assessment of the odds).

I do not think we have any data that would enable making such estimates in any way reasonable. So entering into such a bet would be pure gambling. However, as you say your unwilligness to bet based on your own probabilities suggests that you actually think the same.

I think there is more to it than probability of winning it is also a matter of stake vs potential reward. That's what makes people play the lottery, they know the chance of winning is infinitesimal, but the stake is small and the reward high.

Accordingly at maybe 100 or 1000:1 I'd consider it ... say 0.001 to 1 BTC? Though I'm pretty sure I'd still lose!