[edited out]
OK, so are you suggesting 10:1 (i.e. 0.01 to 0.001 BTC) or 4:1 (0.01 to 0.0025 BTC)?
As per my comments above and previously, I'm not sure this is a sensible bet on any terms, but maybe we can agree something.
I am not even sure if we understand each other enough to make a bet.. since I said that I would
not be wanting to make any bet that merely reflects what I believe the odds to be in the event that someone else is proclaiming odds that I consider to be way outrageous as compared to my odds, so I would want to get surplus out of that.. so that is why I suggested the possibility of entering into a 100:1 bet (or was it 99 to 1, since you were proclaiming 1000:1 or 999:1... .. yet originally I said that I thought that it was 10:1 and now I am more in the ballpark of thinking that the odds are getting to be 4:1, but why would I enter a bet in which you got all the surplus especially since you are thinking the odds are 999 to 1?.. .. but yeah, if I say 99:1 and you say that all the surplus is on my end and I need to go back to 10:1.. since I would still be getting surplus since I really believe the odds to be closer to 4:1..
Anyhow, I would think that each of us would want to have surplus on each of our ends, since you would be more hesitant to enter into a bet that is closer to your true beliefs of 999 to 1, just like I am reluctant to enter into a bet that is closer to my current beliefs of 4:1.. .. which maybe in some sense I am admitting that they might be a bit higher than what I am tentatively thinking right now... . but yeah, we still may well have to describe it out or figure out numbers if we really were going to enter into a bet.. but you did move away from my real offer of 99:1 and suggest the other two possibilities of 10:1 or 4:1 which surely seems like you are wanting to suck all of the surplus value on my end, which is causing it to be unbettable.. .. so I had ONLY proposed possibly considering 99:1.. while at the same time, there could be some [potential to negotiate another set of odds, but I had not proposed those lower odds (or is it higher odds that you are wanting to gravitate towards so that you seem to want to get more surplus value out of the situation.
Well, exactly, everyone taking on a bet wants it to be on the most favourable terms possible. However, as I said before I don't think this is a bet that anyone with any sense would be taking on. On the underdog side the stake is low and the reward is high but the risk of losing is even higher; conversely on the favourite side the probability of winning is good, but the stake is high and the reward is small.
In truth I am less interested in a bet and much more interested in my opening question - what are your workings - i.e. how are you coming to your estimates? And are you still thinking that staying above $67,483 is a 1 in 4 chance or are you re-thinking after the fall today?
For what its worth my view is that:
1. we've only been above 67.4k for a few days;
2. even now we are barely sitting above that level;
3. in the last month we've seen 6 days with >$2,500 falls
4. the halving is coming and we usually see a strong dip after the halving;
5. it'll take nearly 80 straight days (I assume 79 now) to clear $67,483 off the top 100 days (and of course just one day will blow it);
So all in my assessment is the chances are very high that we'll dip below $67,483 sometime in the next 79 days.
I'd be interested to hear why your assessment is different.