Quote from: philipma1957 on April 10, 2024, 01:45:17 PM

Quote from: JimboToronto on April 10, 2024, 03:52:30 AM

Wrong direction. Angry

Serious drop today.

67.7k which is a reaction to inflation rising which means rates are not going to drop.

Well
good for my silver
good for my wife’s 401k
not good for my btc.

You have not figured out yet, that king daddy cornz, aka BTC gives little shits?

Holy fucking shit.. you constantly get distracted by dumb short-term news and continuously seem to be missing the BIG picture, which likely means that your wife should already be drawing upon her 401k so that you are either able to defer drawing on BTC, ONLY draw minimally on BTC or even continue to stack BTC while you spend from those various inferior sources also including your silver shitcoin, too.

You still don't see it? After around 13 years in bitcoin and you still haven't figured it out?

Horey sheit, philip!

Quote from: tertius993 on April 10, 2024, 03:13:05 PM

Gosh another wall of text to wade through. Have you ever thought about the advantages of a bit of brevity?

Fuck off with your patronizing nonsense. Is that brief enough for uie-pooie?

Quote from: tertius993 on April 10, 2024, 03:13:05 PM

Key points:

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 09, 2024, 09:17:35 PM

yet originally I said that I thought that it was 10:1 and now I am more in the ballpark of thinking that the odds are getting to be 4:1, but why would I enter a bet in which you got all the surplus especially since you are thinking the odds are 999 to 1?

Going from 1000:1 to 100:1 is a ten-fold difference.
Going from 4:1 to 100:1 is a 25-fold difference.

So the majority of the "surplus" is on your side.

About 63:1 would put it in the middle.

Yeah, but we are ballparking anyhow.. so it makes it come off as if you may well be quibbling.. especially when you are trying to maximize by going with the 4 to 1 and even I had clarified several times that I was not even very committed to the claims, even when I first posted about the 10-1, I said that I was giving a rough ballpark, as compared with you stating that it is "at least 1000-1"

But still , I might consider some kind of compromise attempt at balancing surplus values, even though you do seem to be exaggerating a bit in your trying to lock me into 4-1 when my opinion was never very strong on that.. I was giving an off-the-cuff ballpark idea of what it might be and also even if the $47,483 were to be crossed in the coming days, that would not mean that my estimate of probabilities was a wrong estimate.. even though I was still suggesting that I might not consider them to be bettable, even if I did not see you making exaggerated claims on your own end of matters..

Quote from: tertius993 on April 10, 2024, 03:13:05 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 09, 2024, 09:17:35 PM

On the other hand the guy who believes that the odds are less than 1/1000, then he also considers the bet to be good since it is almost like free money since he considers that there is less than 1 time out of 1,000 that he would not end up winning the bet. I am not sure what makes it so crazy that no one would enter into such bets if that is what they actually believe and they are willing to stand behind it.. It may just be a matter of the amount that ends up getting bet. .. I mean would you really want to put a whole BTC at risk so that you might be able to win .01 BTC? I did not even say that I would bet that amount, but I might allow you to put up 0.01 BTC if you are wanting to try to win 0.0001 BTC.. I think that would be 100 to 1 odds..

I have already said I don't think it is a good bet for either party since I don't think we have sufficient meaningful data to properly assess the risk.

You are not in a position to decide what is bettable for another party, but you surely can decide for yourself, and sure it could be possible that we are not able to work out terms that each of us considers to be sufficiently bettable.. .but if I believe you are making outrageous claims, and you consider that I am making outrageous claims, just on the face of those ways of framing matters, it seems that we are in bettable territory.. even if we might not be agreeable t work out terms that each of us might be consider to be acceptable from our own perspective... why would I give any shits about your perceptions of risk? you have to figure that part out for yourself... The same is true on my end.. .you have no need to worry about whether I have hedged my risks or whatever, and if we are worried that they other might not pay (if he loses), then we might have to seek someone to escrow the bet.

Quote from: tertius993 on April 10, 2024, 03:13:05 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 09, 2024, 09:17:35 PM

I think when push comes to shove, you would not even be willing to stand behind your own probabilities of 1000 to 1

Any more than you are willing to stand behind your odds of 4:1?

We can agree to disagree in terms of claims of waffling.

Quote from: tertius993 on April 10, 2024, 03:13:05 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 09, 2024, 09:17:35 PM

Of course the BTC price goes up and down all the time, and surely $2,500 does not mean as much in these upper $60k prices as it did when we were in the $6k prices.

Correct but irrelevant to the point I was making. When we are less than $2.5k above the price point we are discussing, it means rather a lot.

Of course, it does but we have not made any bet or otherwise taken action on our assertions besides stating them in a forum thread.. so who cares?

Quote from: tertius993 on April 10, 2024, 03:13:05 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 09, 2024, 09:17:35 PM

It could go up before it goes down too..

Also correct but also irrelevant for the same reason.

Not irrelevant for the purposes of planning your own situation regarding what are you going to do in terms of managing your BTC portfolio whether you are a trader or merely someone that holds on and never sells or maybe if you are still accumulating BTC.. There are a lot of situations in which you might assess to do something different that is partly based on the current price and/or expectations of future price direction.

Quote from: tertius993 on April 10, 2024, 03:13:05 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 09, 2024, 09:17:35 PM

Already sufficiently explained to the extent that any of the nuances even matter in the whole scheme of things.. The ONLY time that the assignment of odds might matter would be if there might be some action that is being considered around the assignment of such odds... so right now I am floating between 1/4 and 1/10 and you are supposedly higher than 1/1,000 even though you are unwilling to enter a 1/100 bet.. so it probably shows that you are not as convicted as you are making it out that you are... to the extent that any of it even matters...especially if neither of us is planning to act upon it.. at least we have not figured out some kind of an agreeable action point, yet.

OK, so you are just guessing, you have no logic?

I have explain this point enough. Whether we agree or not or understand each other or not, it may well not matter that much, it seems that I have explained it and perhaps even over explained it to as much details as seems to be worthy of repetition.

Quote from: tertius993 on April 10, 2024, 03:13:05 PM

Since you seem so keen on a bet how about this?

I am not that keen on a bet, and I am getting some senses that you are being purposefully annoying.

Quote from: tertius993 on April 10, 2024, 03:13:05 PM

We use odds of 100:1, outline terms as follows:

1. tertius993 will wager 0.01BTC to be paid to JayJuanGee if tertius993 loses

2. JayJuanGee will wager 0.0001BTC to be paid to Dirtykeyboard* if JayJuanGee loses

3. tertius993 will win if on at least one day in the next 78 days the volume weighted average USD price on Bitstamp (as reported in Dirtykeyboard's daily update to this thread) is less than $67,483.

4. JayJuanGee will win if for the next 80 consecutive days the volume weighted average USD price on Bitstamp (as reported in Dirtykeyboard's daily update to this thread) will not be less than $67,483

5. If Dirtykeyboard stops updating the thread before the 78 days are up, the bet will be void.

6. If the lowest volume weighted average USD price reported in the next 78 days is EXACTLY $67,483 the bet will be void.

7. The "next 78 days" means the period from today up to and including 27 June 2024.

* as a thank you for the updates to the thread

I think I have calculated the number of days correctly but happy to be corrected on that.

Your framing of such a proposed bet is not very annoying.. and I am thinking that right now it is 76 days remaining, since the number of days has to do with whether the tradeweighted price would fall of the 100 day chart without having any one day below that price.

In regards to your number 6, it would almost be impossible for there to be a tie if we were to use the actual digits of the underlying data,.. since DirtyKeyboard has already shown us that the data does down to around 10 digits or

Quote from: DirtyKeyboard on April 05, 2024, 09:37:56 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on April 05, 2024, 01:38:48 AM

[edited out]

2021-11-09 67482.752117444
2024-04-04 67481.7742406439

Maybe I should upload the raw data to a linked public cloud drive?

Quote from: tertius993 on April 10, 2024, 03:13:05 PM

If you agree copy the terms into a new post with just the terms and say you agree, I will then quote and agree your post.

If you want to change anything propose your amendments and we can take it from there.

I will have to think about if I want to agree or propose any changes, but what you are describing seems to be somewhat reasonable and even bettable in the 100 to 1 sentiment... .though I might want a escrow. and DirtyKeyboard might not appreciate receiving dust (of 0.0001 BTC), if I were to lose the bet.

Quote from: philipma1957 on April 10, 2024, 08:55:48 PM

got close today 67,494.

lets argue that is the correct low.

it missed by under 15 dollars

the real question is do we swing up hard and no dance of a dump.

we are certainly right at the low point easy peasy.

Part of the reason that we are looking at these trade-weighted averages is to get away from getting worked up about highs and lows, so the weighted price did not even come close to $67,483, even though the low for the day did... so anyhow fast-forward ahead and we still finished the day close to $1,500 higher... so when you had posted your earlier post, there were ONLY three hours left in the day, so most of the day's numbers had already been established by then, so there would have had to have been a lot of volume in the last 3 hours and the price would have likely needed to bounce at least a few thousand below $67,483 to bring down the trade weighted price for those last three hours of the day.