We use odds of 100:1, outline terms as follows:
1. tertius993 will wager 0.01BTC to be paid to JayJuanGee if tertius993 loses
2. JayJuanGee will wager 0.0001BTC to be paid to Dirtykeyboard* if JayJuanGee loses
3. tertius993 will win if on at least one day in the next 78 days the volume weighted average USD price on Bitstamp (as reported in Dirtykeyboard's daily update to this thread) is less than $67,483.
4. JayJuanGee will win if for the next 80 consecutive days the volume weighted average USD price on Bitstamp (as reported in Dirtykeyboard's daily update to this thread) will not be less than $67,483
5. If Dirtykeyboard stops updating the thread before the 78 days are up, the bet will be void.
6. If the lowest volume weighted average USD price reported in the next 78 days is EXACTLY $67,483 the bet will be void.
7. The "next 78 days" means the period from today up to and including 27 June 2024.
* as a thank you for the updates to the thread
I think I have calculated the number of days correctly but happy to be corrected on that.
1. tertius993 will wager 0.01BTC to be paid to JayJuanGee if tertius993 loses
2. JayJuanGee will wager 0.0001BTC to be paid to Dirtykeyboard* if JayJuanGee loses
3. tertius993 will win if on at least one day in the next 78 days the volume weighted average USD price on Bitstamp (as reported in Dirtykeyboard's daily update to this thread) is less than $67,483.
4. JayJuanGee will win if for the next 80 consecutive days the volume weighted average USD price on Bitstamp (as reported in Dirtykeyboard's daily update to this thread) will not be less than $67,483
5. If Dirtykeyboard stops updating the thread before the 78 days are up, the bet will be void.
6. If the lowest volume weighted average USD price reported in the next 78 days is EXACTLY $67,483 the bet will be void.
7. The "next 78 days" means the period from today up to and including 27 June 2024.
* as a thank you for the updates to the thread
I think I have calculated the number of days correctly but happy to be corrected on that.
Your framing of such a proposed bet is not very annoying.. and I am thinking that right now it is 76 days remaining, since the number of days has to do with whether the tradeweighted price would fall of the 100 day chart without having any one day below that price.
In regards to your number 6, it would almost be impossible for there to be a tie if we were to use the actual digits of the underlying data,.. since DirtyKeyboard has already shown us that the data does down to around 10 digits or
[edited out]
2021-11-09 67482.7521174442024-04-04 67481.7742406439
Maybe I should upload the raw data to a linked public cloud drive?
In that case we can strike no. 6.
And yes, we need to get the number of days exactly right - indeed I notice a typo in my suggested terms that needs fixing, no 4. said 80 instead of 78.
If you agree copy the terms into a new post with just the terms and say you agree, I will then quote and agree your post.
If you want to change anything propose your amendments and we can take it from there.
If you want to change anything propose your amendments and we can take it from there.
I will have to think about if I want to agree or propose any changes, but what you are describing seems to be somewhat reasonable and even bettable in the 100 to 1 sentiment... .though I might want a escrow. and DirtyKeyboard might not appreciate receiving dust (of 0.0001 BTC), if I were to lose the bet.
Yep, fair point, in fact Dirtykeyboard would need to agree in any event. If he doesn't want it we should agree a suitable destination for the 0.0001 if it becomes due, maybe ChartBuddy?
I see no particular need for escrow, but have no issue if you want to find someone.
Also note I'm away for a few days and probably won't have good online access now until Sunday/Monday.
I second the ChartBuddy fund target, and thank you, and you're welcome tertius993.