Of course, on my end the amount of the bet is not very much (since it is being framed in terms of a 100 to 1 chances.. so the amount is attempting to reflect that, yet on your end, the amount becomes quite significant, especially in 75-ish days the BTC price could end up in over $100k and your 0.01 BTC amounts to more than $1k dollars.. while currently mine is around $7 and if the BTC price goes down in such a way that I would end up losing the bet, then presumptively it would be less than $7 when I were to pay the bet. .. so lopsided bets seem to have more justification for escrow.. yet I don't really have any reason to believe that you are not good for it.. since the bet does not really seem that complicated.
As we already mentioned, the odds are surely more likely that I am going to lose, but the amount on each side justifies going into the bet at 99 to 1 odds... and the main point of the bet is that I would be betting that the BTC trade weighted prices through the system of positing of DirtyKeyboard is not going to end up going below
2021-11-09 67482.752117444
prior to that November 9, 2021 date getting pushed off the table.. and yeah, by today there are ONLY 75 days remaining that the trade-weighed price would need to stay above 67482.752117444 in order for November 9, 2021 to get knocked off the top 100 table.
As far as the payment of the beneficiary of the bet in the event that I lose (which is the most likely outcome), all you have to do tertius993 is give me a wallet address and I will pay it whether it is an onchain address or a lighting address, yet I am not going to feel as comfortable paying such a low amount (of 0.0001 BTC) to a regular onchain bitcoin address if there remains such uncertainties with fees.... or if it is going to someone who had not agreed to take it, then they might consider such a low payment amount as a kind of spam (or a dust attack) unless it is getting sent to some kind of a wallet that the recipient would be sure to be able to manage such small amount in the future. An exchange address would actually work o.k. for that kind of a purpose, yet I am not sure if there might be some exchanges that don't want to receive dust amounts.. .. but I don't know about any of them providing such minimums.. . .even though I have seen some that have trade minimums (around $5-ish, and those kinds of minimums could change with times too)..
I can certainly see your preference for escrow, except that the most likely outcome is:
a. I sent to the escrow (incurring transaction fees)
b. the escrow charges a fee (%age I assume)
c. it ends up coming back to me (incurring more transaction fees)
Whereas if we do without escrow the only fees are for the transaction from me to you.
I don't mind paying the fees for step a. (indeed I expect to) but I don't particularly want to pay the fees for steps b. and c.!
Also agree if you end up paying me (or whoever we determine should receive it), then a lightning address would be superior.
So if you are happy to cover the fees for steps b. and c. then no issue.
NB still away with limited access.
I think that one of the main purposes of escrow is to assure seriousness in any proposition and/or bet, and yeah in recent times there are more needs to be concerned about on chain transaction fees... and surely there could be charges (fees) with any person providing escrow as well... although there might be some forum members willing to provide escrow without charging, yet we would still have to make sure the fees are covered.
Yeah, I don't really know the solution, except each side would bear his own transaction fees and perhaps the splitting of escrow costs... and I was not completely inclined to insist upon escrow services in the event that seriousness could otherwise be confirmed, and perhaps your writing out the bet terms did contribute towards showing that your proposed terms were more serious than I had originally thought.. ...
So even if we did not exactly agree upon escrow, yet if we are able to establish that the bet was sufficiently serious, then it appears pretty likely that such bet is going to end today, since there are ONLY 6.5 hours left in the day, and it appears that currently (as I type this post) there is around $325 of weight-traded BTC price that has to be made up (or increased).. which seems very difficult to accomplish especially since the BTC price is currently moving lower rather than higher, unless there were a pick up in BTC trade volume and/or a decent enough pick up in the BTC price, which it seem the opposite is taking place right now... so yeah, sure, prepare to give me a lightning address, whether it is your own address or some other lightning address... and yeah, I am not very comfortable with such low amounts on chain.. at least right now and not without the consent of the recipient to receive such low amounts (which might be a little bit lesser of a deal if the amount were sent to an exchange address),, but yeah if you are agreeable to lightning then we could probably make that work.. .. yeah if it comes to the actual exchanging of payment information, we most likely could figure out the part of the actual confirmation of the address by PM..