Quote from: paxmao on August 09, 2024, 08:57:18 AM

Quote from: DaRude on August 08, 2024, 11:50:29 PM

Quote from: paxmao on August 08, 2024, 07:50:39 PM

Edit to update: Ukraine is 40 km deep in Putin's Ruzzia (some claim). Troop are 25 km from Kursk, 20 from the nearby Kurskaya nuclear power-plant. This is day 3 of this new offensive direction.

Quote from: DaRude on August 08, 2024, 04:38:02 PM

Quote from: paxmao on August 08, 2024, 02:36:50 PM

Quote from: DaRude on August 08, 2024, 10:24:24 AM

Quote from: magistrator on August 08, 2024, 10:07:42 AM

Guys, what's going on near Kursk? They say Russians are being chased ?

Indeed interesting development. On surface another suicidal mission like all of the previous attempts. Russia has around 300k conscripts which it's not allowed to use inside Ukraine, but can definitely use on its own land, so PR move for next few days at great cost to Ukraine. Now let's see why Ukraine is willing to sacrifice it's remaining military force for some PR points now:

Quote from: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/ukraine-breaks-silence-on-kursk-raid-objectives/ar-AA1oru05

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak announced during a national TV broadcast that the surprise incursion was launched to boost Kyiv's position in future negotiations with Russia, Telegram channel Country Politics reported.

The presidential adviser said Russian losses of territory, people and equipment will positively impact potential future negotiations with Russia in the war, launched by President Vladimir Putin in February 2022.

Heading into this winter with power cuts would be suicidal for Ukrainian leadership (and nothing good for EU), they risks full collapse and revolt from its citizens. So this is UA's last hurrah before they must start negotiations with Russia. Like i've been saying, this madness should finally end before 2025

The "suicidal mission" is now equivalent to what Ruzzia can take in more than a month of fighting anywhere else in the front. Yesterday's data shows 18 km of front with a maximum penetration of 20 km.

If there is a nearby negotiation (and it seems Zelensky has pointed in that direction and the last summit in Switzerland seemed to be a preparation to measure positions internationally), there is of course an interest in having as many PoWs as possible and getting as much land as possible.

It also seems there are some strategic objectives around creating a more defensible border and cutting at least one important railway line.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-incursion-kursk-region-putin-b2593051.html

Quote

War monitor the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Ukrainian soldiers had penetrated more than six miles (10km) across the border, breaking through two Russian defensive lines and a stronghold.

Russia declared a state of emergency amid the fierce fighting, despite seeking to claim that the situation was under control. Russian state media said that 3,000 people have been evacuated from the area.

This does not look "suicidal" to me. You know... compared to what Ruzzia has to throw in the meat grinder for an equivalent result, one would say that you are trying to make it look the opposite. Just saying.

Let's face it: Ruzzia has been caught on the wrong foot... by a lot.

...

Yes yes ingenious war tactic, when you're already stretched thin and giving up territory every day just collect your reserves and throw them in an attack (cause everyone knows you loose less troops when attacking right Huh

) Odd that Zaluzhnyi hasn't done that before, if he had, this would've already been over by now. Totally rational to call it a win even before we find out if UA can hold it for more than 98hrs, you're like UA;s cheerleader squad whatever UA does is totally amazing and a right decision, why, because you're unable to say otherwise and don't even attempt to appear remotely objective Undecided

Oh, sure, sure... bad idea, bad tactic meat grinder, reserves... all the buzz words, but at the end of the day Ukraine has freed from Putin a good chunk of Ruzzian land in just a couple of days. If you want it back come take it or... trade it for something Ukraine likes. Keep on you accomplished military genius, move your beers in the troll farm bar and imagine winning imaginary wars.

Meanwhile, surrender of the untrained border troops has been filmed in-mass - again, want them back? I will update on this, it is starting to look embarrasing for Ruzzia to have such a lassitude in defence and I would not want you to miss the opportunity to say something stupid again.

Easy way to spot propaganda is they have to claim that whatever happens, surely happens for the best, and any outcome is surely to your benefit, you're unable to even discuss any costs, downsides or risks. On the contrary my argument is that this doesn't make any military sense, but potentially can destabilize the regime with some rogue general like with Prigozhin so it's a psyop, build up internal pressure on Putin so that his hawks will demand to rush troops from Kharkov to free Russian land right away. If Ukraine manages to hold on to this land when negotiations start, or Russia moves it's troop away from Kharkov i will concede that this was a smart move before negotiations, on the other hand if Russia doesn't overreact and UA retreats in few days this would be a breaking point for Ukraine. But you're unable to do that, you're just parroting how amazing it is that few thousands soldiers with tanks were able to overrun some border guards, on a thousand km border. Goals and outcome of this mission doesn't really fit into your propaganda, does it?

[... stuff that does not return 100 km2 back to Ruzzia ...]

On the contrary, I am absolutely OK to discuss losses, risks and benefits, but I have the feeling you are not and will come out with something else (e.g. your favourite fixations Nuland and Nordstream) or some troll farm parroting. Let's try to see if you actually have any data or you are ... just saying...

1. what do you think are the loses for Ukraine in three days?
2. How many Ruzzian PoW has Ukraine made?
3. How many km2 has Ruzzia lost in these 3 days?
4. What is the benefit for Ruzzia of Ukraine being (some sources claim) 50km, loosing several localities including Sudzha 5000 habitants?

Let's compare:
1b. How long did it take for Ruzzia to take Avdiivka and how many loses would you say were there?
2b. How many loses would you say takes Ruzzia to take and equivalent bit of land and localities in the Donbas?
3b. How long in advance did Ukraine noticed that there would be a Kharkiv offensive from Ruzzia? Why Ruzzia did not notice the Kursk offensive?

I can tell you about risk to Ukraine is, if they are not able to move forward and later build defences fast enough, having to retreat in a hurry.

There seems to be quite a bit of air defence combined with surveillance and FPV drones, IFVs and some tanks have been seen so threats have been considered as they know now very well how the Ruzzian army operates.

This has been pulled out right under Ruzzia's nose, so I guess one of the risks out there is to the head of the Ruzzian military intelligence. To his head properly said.

1-From what i read the consensus seems to be that this attack caught Russians unprepared, Russia didn't expect such brazen frontal attack. Such "blitzkrieg" is typically to attacker advantage as long as they can sustain movement and keep outmaneuvering defenders. No clue on absolute numbers, believe i read RU side claimed 1k UA losses.
2-If we only view these past 3 days, as Ukraine advanced for the first time since the counteroffensive, and caught Russia by surprise, logically UA would take in more PoW than RU. But overall i believe RU still has overwhelmingly more UA's PoWs than UA.
3-Operations is still ongoing so it's all fluid and no one will release true numbers, but some reports claims 100s of km^2 on first 3 days, reportedly since then Russia has already liberated Martynovka. But once again it's still ongoing
4-What's the benefit for Russia loosing land Huh

rhetorical question.

1b-Silly propaganda attempt, more specifically, false comparison, trying to equate taking a well fortified city on the frontline for years to a surprise attack across the border taking few villages.
2b-Again trying to compare attacking well fortified position to a rushed surprised attack.
3b-All of western intelligence is concentrated on Ukraine. NATO has exponentially more satellites than Russia, so naturally it's intelligence would be better. Don't think anyone would argue against that. Plus it's hard to predict such suicidal attacks.

Now, how high were UA losses protecting Avdiivka, and what are RU losses during this operation?

So if Ukraine will retreat in few days you'd concede that this operation was a failure?

Quote from: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/10/world/europe/ukraine-russia-cross-border-attack.html

Russia Appears to Partly Halt Ukraine’s Cross-Border Assault, Analysts Say
...
Pasi Paroinen, an analyst from the Black Bird Group, a Finland-based organization that analyzes satellite imagery and social media content from the battlefield, said in an interview on Saturday that evidence suggested that Moscow had been able to stall major advances in Russian territory late in the week.

“We’re now entering the phase where the easy gains have been made,” he said of Ukraine’s initial advance. “This phase, for the first three days, saw the most rapid movement,” he added. “And yesterday, I think, we started to see the effects of the Russian response.”

To counter the incursion, Russia’s military appears to be relying mostly on units that were already deployed near the area, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank. Most of those units consist of military conscripts and irregular forces, as opposed to the battle-hardened soldiers fighting in Ukraine.
...
So far, Russian forces have not let up in their frontline pushes. In recent days, they have made some inroads near the embattled eastern Ukrainian towns of Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Pokrovsk, the Institute for the Study of War said. On Friday, the British Defense Ministry said that Russian troops in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine had gained ground, pushing to about 10 miles from Pokrovsk.
...
The new offensive has also alarmed the Russian public, and if conscripts are killed, that could bring the war home in a way that losses along the front lines have not.
...The Ukrainian authorities, perhaps preparing for retaliation, said on Friday that they were evacuating 20,000 people from the Sumy region, across the border from Kursk.

As expected, looks like Russia is tapping into it's 300k of conscripts on it's land, instead of pulling contractors from the front line. Desperate attempt to destabilize Russia from within. Should know in few days how well that worked.

Militarily, seems like UA is not only planning for a possibility of a retreat but also expecting Russia won't be satisfied with just getting it's territory back but will push further and enter Sumy.

Quote from: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-volunteers-evacuate-residents-near-russias-embattled-kursk-region-2024-08-10/

Ukrainian volunteers evacuated dozens of residents, and their pets, from northern Sumy region in anticipation of more Russian attacks in response to Ukraine's cross-border military incursion into the Kursk region...
Sumy Governor Volodymyr Artiukh ordered 28 villages evacuated from a 10-km (six-mile) zone hugging the border. National police said on Friday that 20,000 would have to leave.

Seems that we can both agree that regardless of the outcome, this operation brings negotiations closer. Which everyone should welcome.

But these events also set yet another terrible precedent onto our world. Now countries can openly equip third country and pay for their soldier to invade/attack another country, while claiming not to be a party to the conflict. I'm sure a lot of good will come out of this in the future. This of course has been done many times before in our history, but never with countries openly admitting to it like now. If UN will let this slide, it would be catastrophic, would mean that they managed to completely destroy the core idea for UN.