Quote from: DaRude on Today at 11:06:40 AM

Quote from: paxmao on August 10, 2024, 10:47:03 PM

Quote from: DaRude on August 10, 2024, 01:37:30 PM

Quote from: paxmao on August 09, 2024, 08:57:18 AM

On the contrary, I am absolutely OK to discuss losses, risks and benefits, but I have the feeling you are not and will come out with something else (e.g. your favourite fixations Nuland and Nordstream) or some troll farm parroting. Let's try to see if you actually have any data or you are ... just saying...

1. what do you think are the loses for Ukraine in three days?
2. How many Ruzzian PoW has Ukraine made?
3. How many km2 has Ruzzia lost in these 3 days?
4. What is the benefit for Ruzzia of Ukraine being (some sources claim) 50km, loosing several localities including Sudzha 5000 habitants?

Let's compare:
1b. How long did it take for Ruzzia to take Avdiivka and how many loses would you say were there?
2b. How many loses would you say takes Ruzzia to take and equivalent bit of land and localities in the Donbas?
3b. How long in advance did Ukraine noticed that there would be a Kharkiv offensive from Ruzzia? Why Ruzzia did not notice the Kursk offensive?

I can tell you about risk to Ukraine is, if they are not able to move forward and later build defences fast enough, having to retreat in a hurry.

There seems to be quite a bit of air defence combined with surveillance and FPV drones, IFVs and some tanks have been seen so threats have been considered as they know now very well how the Ruzzian army operates.

This has been pulled out right under Ruzzia's nose, so I guess one of the risks out there is to the head of the Ruzzian military intelligence. To his head properly said.

1-From what i read the consensus seems to be that this attack caught Russians unprepared, Russia didn't expect such brazen frontal attack. Such "blitzkrieg" is typically to attacker advantage as long as they can sustain movement and keep outmaneuvering defenders. No clue on absolute numbers, believe i read RU side claimed 1k UA losses.
2-If we only view these past 3 days, as Ukraine advanced for the first time since the counteroffensive, and caught Russia by surprise, logically UA would take in more PoW than RU. But overall i believe RU still has overwhelmingly more UA's PoWs than UA.
3-Operations is still ongoing so it's all fluid and no one will release true numbers, but some reports claims 100s of km^2 on first 3 days, reportedly since then Russia has already liberated Martynovka. But once again it's still ongoing
4-What's the benefit for Russia loosing land Huh

rhetorical question.

1b-Silly propaganda attempt, more specifically, false comparison, trying to equate taking a well fortified city on the frontline for years to a surprise attack across the border taking few villages.
2b-Again trying to compare attacking well fortified position to a rushed surprised attack.
3b-All of western intelligence is concentrated on Ukraine. NATO has exponentially more satellites than Russia, so naturally it's intelligence would be better. Don't think anyone would argue against that. Plus it's hard to predict such suicidal attacks.

Now, how high were UA losses protecting Avdiivka, and what are RU losses during this operation?

So if Ukraine will retreat in few days you'd concede that this operation was a failure?

Quote from: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/10/world/europe/ukraine-russia-cross-border-attack.html

Russia Appears to Partly Halt Ukraine’s Cross-Border Assault, Analysts Say
...
Pasi Paroinen, an analyst from the Black Bird Group, a Finland-based organization that analyzes satellite imagery and social media content from the battlefield, said in an interview on Saturday that evidence suggested that Moscow had been able to stall major advances in Russian territory late in the week.

“We’re now entering the phase where the easy gains have been made,” he said of Ukraine’s initial advance. “This phase, for the first three days, saw the most rapid movement,” he added. “And yesterday, I think, we started to see the effects of the Russian response.”

To counter the incursion, Russia’s military appears to be relying mostly on units that were already deployed near the area, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank. Most of those units consist of military conscripts and irregular forces, as opposed to the battle-hardened soldiers fighting in Ukraine.
...
So far, Russian forces have not let up in their frontline pushes. In recent days, they have made some inroads near the embattled eastern Ukrainian towns of Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Pokrovsk, the Institute for the Study of War said. On Friday, the British Defense Ministry said that Russian troops in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine had gained ground, pushing to about 10 miles from Pokrovsk.
...
The new offensive has also alarmed the Russian public, and if conscripts are killed, that could bring the war home in a way that losses along the front lines have not.
...The Ukrainian authorities, perhaps preparing for retaliation, said on Friday that they were evacuating 20,000 people from the Sumy region, across the border from Kursk.

As expected, looks like Russia is tapping into it's 300k of conscripts on it's land, instead of pulling contractors from the front line. Desperate attempt to destabilize Russia from within. Should know in few days how well that worked.

Militarily, seems like UA is not only planning for a possibility of a retreat but also expecting Russia won't be satisfied with just getting it's territory back but will push further and enter Sumy.

Quote from: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-volunteers-evacuate-residents-near-russias-embattled-kursk-region-2024-08-10/

Ukrainian volunteers evacuated dozens of residents, and their pets, from northern Sumy region in anticipation of more Russian attacks in response to Ukraine's cross-border military incursion into the Kursk region...
Sumy Governor Volodymyr Artiukh ordered 28 villages evacuated from a 10-km (six-mile) zone hugging the border. National police said on Friday that 20,000 would have to leave.

Seems that we can both agree that regardless of the outcome, this operation brings negotiations closer. Which everyone should welcome.

But these events also set yet another terrible precedent onto our world. Now countries can openly equip third country and just pay for their soldiers to invade/attack another country, while claiming not to be a party to the conflict. I'm sure a lot of good will come out of this in the future. This of course has been done many times before in our history, but never with countries openly admitting to it like now. If UN will let this slide, it would be catastrophic, would mean that they managed to completely destroy the core idea for UN.

If you have no clue on numbers, you should think twice before calling suicidal, bad strategy, etc... I think in fact you are still trying to make this look like and incursion - sorry to break this to you - it is not, there are significant forces of Ukraine involved.

I do not think Ukraine will withdraw in a few days, they have not sent just a few vehicles as of right now they are still pushing forward. Still, I would not measure success in terms of Ukraine retrating - they can retire but the PoW conscripts are now in Ukrainian detention camps, the two Ruzzian convoys that were detected going in support are now destroyed, the reputation of Ruzzia and the Ruzzian government takes a hit... I think it is already a quite decent operation as it is now.

RE calling propaganda... well, it is not: Ukraine has taken several localities in days. Ruzzia has taken several localities in months. It is an absolutely fair comparison ... I understand that you do not like it - it is impossible to deny they obvious. This is not about "taking a well fortified position", because war does not give points for effort. Ukraine has taken plenty of land, very quickly and if Ruzzia was not ready to defend it... too bad. (well, in fact Ukraine did break the Surovikin line).

This is not a rushed attack, the preparation took at least a month. Again, if Ruzzia was looking to their own but and did not see it is Ruzzia's problem Again, there are no extra points for being inept.

And once again, you prove that propaganda cannot allow for a loosing scenario (craftier propaganda will allow for a downside as long as conditions are unattainable). Whatever happened is already a victory, and the outcome doesn't really matter, well, because this was already a success

And what I'm saying is when you're retreating daily and cannot protect your power infrastructure, pulling your best troops, equipment and desperately needed air-defense into an attack on some villages that don't hold and military strategic value cannot be a successful military operation, but it's not trying to be by design. That is, it's a psyop mission which can be successful if:
1-It brings a political victory i.e. destabilizes Russia from within, RU hawks will demand total capture of Kiev requiring new wave of mobilization, leading to civil unrest
2-Rogue general turns onto Moscow (Prigozhin style)
3-UA manages to hold on to the taken Russian land when negotiations begin, securing themselves some leverage in negotiations

Without achieving these targets this would be a failure. Where propaganda must constantly hedge exposure and ignore the risks. It's already a success even if UA retreats, because then i'll just claim that we managed to get some PoWs which was totally worth it Roll Eyes

Surely everyone would ignore the development elsewhere on the frontline and just believe such logic

[...]

Dude, you are calling propaganda on facts... unless you choose to disagree in some fundamental facts?? So, you say, there are no Ukrainian troops in Kursk, they have not taken a signigicant chunk of land, they have not taken a large number of PoW and at least two on the convoys sent to repel have not been destroyed? So it is not happening, it is not much faster than anything has been able to pull in the last year? All that is "propaganda"?

Are you trying again and again to divert the attention to what I say, instead of what it is actually happening?? Are you trying to score a "dialectical win" of some short that will give Ruzzia back all the lost territory?

LOL - so in your world this mission is only successful if it collapses Ruzzia and pretty much ends the war?? That is the equivalent of saying that a chess move is only successful if it check-mates the opponent

The mission HAS been successful already within the timeframe of a few days, in terms of land, prisoners, equipment destroyed and political impact. It can be even a greater success if Ruzzia fails to send support to the area and do it fast enough. It gives Ukraine yet another card to play with in the future.

I have no idea of what the Ukrainian command will do - neither do you - all I am saying is that there are significant resources, these were gathered under Ruzzia's nose for a veeery long time, that Ukraine is digging into the taken territory and it is unlikely that they will withdraw like in previous incursions.

I understand it is difficult for you to assume that Ruzzia was so utterly unprepared for this contingency, but... you do not get "victory points" for crying.