Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on Today at 01:13:33 PM

Had a concern that we were due a dip after pumping literally $15,000 in a very short time. The price seems to be settling at $87-000 - $89,000.

It’s looking like we have a constant flow of buying to support current price levels. I am starting to feel more bullish daily, excited for 2025.

Yep.. it can be quite difficult to know whether we had a true step-up from $69k-ish to $89k-ish until we get to see it play out and if the step up can be sustained, even though we know that there can be extended periods in which the BTC price is being held down way longer than it should be or can be (like trying to hold a beachball under water and various waves are coming in).. We have seen these kinds of step-ups in bitcoin plenty of times, and even though we can kind of attempt to infer that buying support is there, we really cannot know until the ups and downs get tested out.... and yeah, we've been talking about "supply shock" for years, and personally, I think that there is some kind of truth to supply shock ideas, yet at the same time, many times we wonder with a bit of awe: "why aren't the corn prices going up?"

So yeah, we also likely know that there are a variety of ways that the BTC supply can also be inflated, yet with the unique nature of the cornz, some of the manipulators can really end up on the wrong side of a trade if they try to prolong their attempts to overly inflate the BTC supply.. and yeah, a lot of those fucktwats are really good at such manipulations, yet at the same time, even some of them likely realize that there is ONLY so much bailout that they are going to be able to get if they end up overly blowing up their lil selfies due to not having anywhere close to the supply of corn they claim to have.

Quote from: PremiumcryptoHub on Today at 03:02:11 PM

JUST IN: Satoshi era Bitcoin wallet just moved 2,000 BTC for the first time since 2010

Does it make you scared?

Hahahahahaha

I tried to link to the actual transaction, but I was not able to do it... so if anyone has a link that would be great.. probably helpful to other guys here too.

It is interesting to see so many old coins moving, and sometimes it can be a bit funny or strange to see the coins moving now, and personally if I were to hold such coins, I may well would have moved them earlier, just to make sure that I could still move them, but surely some of the older guys might not be worried about whether they can move the coins... . and then sometimes the coins could be split up in order to be put in some more comfortable sized amounts.

The transaction fee is a bit strange, but I am imagining that the transaction fee is so high since at minimum the total amount might be contained in 40 UTXOs? Even though I am not really sure about that either - that is 2,000 BTC in the wallet / 50 per UTXO. Admittedly, I am still not very knowledgable about some of these kinds of basic matters in regards to how older UTXOs were treated or were they able to be combined so there would have had only been 1 UTXO rather than a minimum of 40 in this particular case if we are presuming that the amount came straight from mining rewards from back then.

Quote from: d_eddie on Today at 03:03:36 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 14, 2024, 07:40:29 AM

--snips for clarity--

Quote from: d_eddie on November 13, 2024, 12:53:12 PM

you can get additional bitcoin exposure even if you're balls deep, all-in,
no fiat left
you get paid in btc straight away
it isn't necessary to leverage above 1:1 at all

Sounds scary to me
never much confidence
that at any point in the short run
the odds are better than 50/50 that BTC is going up

As soon as she finds herself up, you can close your position with a tiny profit.
What matters is
1. Not getting liquidated, so you remain in play
2. Having a fairly long time horizon, so she has time to float in her preferred direction (uppity).

I wouldn't do perpetuals because in general I don't short. If longing perpetuals, you almost always pay interest, as I explained in the quoted post.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on November 14, 2024, 07:40:29 AM

Is it even possible to be more happier than 89.7x profits in 11-ish years?

Yessir it is, much very happier.

Think if the 89.7x profits were not in fiat ($1 becomes $89.7) but in corn (0.01BTC becomes 0.897BTC). Or if, corn forbid, you are a shorter and have theoretically no risk of liquidation. You can short perpetuals and meanwhile pocket tasty funding interest, or regular (expiring) futures and pocket the future premium as soon as you paper-sell. Besides, when there is downity, the profits are higher in btc terms for the same dollar amount.

This said, I do not advise trading except maybe marginally, with a little throwaway play stash. I certainly do not advise SHORTING. Of course, once or twice in a lifetime can still be fine.

Of course you can't be bothered with this risky, sweaty business since per your own admission you've long reached your accumulation goals. 0.63BTC is nothing to be sneezing at, as somun sez. I can't blame you. My words will resonate more with some of the rest - those who feel they haven't accumulated enough yet.

If you think about it, even with all of your lovely math, you said that you were losing on longs, so if you are proclaiming that your profits would be in BTC rather than in dollars, then truly if your BTC is going up, then you should be making profits... at least in the long run, and especially if you are not putting additional capital in, yet your BTC are continuing to go up, then you cannot be losing money, right?

When I got to my accumulation goal, which was something like 0.21 BTC (in order to be able to relate to newbies), so then when I got to 3x my accumulation goal of 0.63 BTC and above, then at that point I might try to presume that I am going to be able to stay above the 0.63BTC and to set goals around trying to stay above the 0.63 BTC and so my BTC never falls below that. The goal may well change based on how the valuation changes, yet we are then valuating based on 200-WMA, then the value is continuously going up so then we might be able to make various sustainable withdrawal plans based on that, whether they are price based and/or time based... but yeah, there is a particular trick to reaching and exceeding our accumulation amount, but then being able to continue to withdraw from that amount with the dollar value presumptively going up faster than the withdrawal rate (including accounting for the debasement of the dollar).

So the ideas around building up your BTC stash are different from figuring out what to do once achieving and/or exceeding such goals, and surely I attempt to continuously talk with guys about building up their BTC stash, since an overwhelming majority of guys are still building their BTC stash, so your ideas of trading would not be off topic for me, and I frequently suggest that trading is not a good way to build up your BTC stash as you seem to suggest that trading can be good to build up your BTC stash, but even though you come out with various kinds of decently good sounding math, you still said that you really don't do too much of your trading stuff since you were finding that you were not really building up your BTC from those kinds of practices.

Of course, we likely realize that if you are mostly long leveraging bitcoin through those practices, yet most of bitcoins overall price movement is likely down, and then we get a lot fewer shorter periods of UP in which any of the shorts get busted the fuck out of their position over and over and over, which are fun times in bitcoin, even though way fewer days per year in bitcoin are recking shorts as compared to the number of days recking longs.. and at the same time, you better fucking be in bitcoin on the days that it unexpectedly does some kind of a step up.

Anyhow, I think that part of my point is that once any of us reaches our accumulation (and really more than accumulation) level then we are likely more free to start to sell the extra that we got, but still I am not really talking about trading or further accumulation at that point, even though surely sometimes we can still end up maintaining our holdings by selling on the way up and buying on the way down, but not in order to accumulate more bitcoin, even though sometimes there can be a side effect of ending up getting more bitcoin when the BTC price dips. In the overall scheme of things, prior to reaching overaccumulation status, I would not be suggesting those who have not reached such status to accumulate bitcoin through anything other than ongoing persistent and consistent buying..and surely not selling any coin until they have figured out that they have reached over accumulation status..