Quote from: DaRude on Today at 03:47:31 AM

Quote from: paxmao on Today at 01:51:56 AM

Quote from: DaRude on February 01, 2025, 07:25:36 PM

Quote from: paxmao on January 31, 2025, 01:06:17 PM

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Your fixation with cookies does not let you see a simple reality. Effective Ruzzia and the West play in different leagues.

You can replace cookies with "financial expansionism", if you wish. As i previously said, yes i agree, on a financial plain, "west" and RU are clearly in different leagues. And that's exactly the reason why US started to play on this field, to leverage it's advantage, and exactly the reason why RU decided to switch plains to the one it's more level on (military). Everyone was well aware of RU's red lines and were fully aware that RU wouldn't play on the field where it's guaranteed to loose from the start. RU even demanded written response to their security demands before this all started which i fully expect them to publish once this is over. Knowing all this, why Zelenskyy still volunteered to sacrifice his people is beyond me Huh

Quote from: paxmao on February 01, 2025, 12:07:30 AM

Quote from: be.open on January 31, 2025, 06:52:12 PM

Quote from: paxmao on January 31, 2025, 02:00:44 PM

Quote from: be.open on January 31, 2025, 01:27:57 PM

Quote from: paxmao on January 31, 2025, 01:06:17 PM

Of course, it could be expected from you to say anything different. But why don't we talk about the elephant in the room?

You probably were thinking that Trump was going to hand over Ukraine, and now you have probably realised that it is not only the case, but further more Trump is going to arm twist the Ruzzian economy further into reaching a reasonable peace plan.

Trump is a chatterbox and a fascist. But this is not Russia's problem now, but rather Canada, Denmark, Panama, Ukraine and the EU. Trump promised to end this conflict in 24 hours and did not do it. Now Trump wants to end this conflict in 100 days and it is unlikely that anything will happen again if he has not even bothered to call Putin. This is all empty talk, not worthy of interested attention.

I am no fan of Trump, and be sure it is everyone's problem Â Grin

You are right about one thing there, he makes a lot of noise for every tiny thing he does, but he wants to end the war in Ukraine and he cannot be seen as a weakling, so... expect an inordinate degree of pressure to be on the table.

Biden, in my view, never wanted to really end the war, it would have been very easy to provide the right level of support for that, and not a few bradleys here and there.

Trump has nothing to put pressure on Putin with. Well, maybe Trump has something to put pressure on Zelensky with, we'll see.

You may need glasses, even with 2 minutes of thinking anyone could come up with some ideas...

- What if the aid to Ukraine triples for a year? It would not take much of the US budget to do so.
- What if the US decides that, after all, it is OK for Ukraine to join NATO?
- What if the oil production is increased until barrel at 35 USD? Ruzzia would not be able to finance the war, but not only that, the debt that is hidden all over the privates companies would be at default most likely.
- What if the US decides that Wagner should be expelled from Africa?

If you ask me, this war has not finished yet because the US wants it to continue. From US point of view, you do not always get the chance to destroy the Ruzzian arsenal, damage their economy and harm their diplomacy all that for just a tiny bit of your GDP and without any US human loses whatsoever.

I would say that, again from the US point of view why not making this last another 5 years? It costs them nearly nothing.

[...]
We can discuss what if it's aliens, but i think it'd would be of benefit to all to discuss probable outcomes.

We all see what Ukraine was able to achieve with the previous level of support. Naturally, to change the current trend, the support must not only continue but it needs to be increased, and as you've pointed out, exponentially. So far, there is not even a discussion of sending any more aid from US instead US even froze the current aid it already promised to deliver. EU is posturing as if they can compensate the missing US aid but i believe everyone knows that's just laughable. Sanctions are also in the same boat, not even hint of new sanctions from Trump on Russia but instead we do have this Trump vows to launch trade war on EU “The European Union has treated us so terribly,” U.S. president complains, as Canada and Mexico get nailed with blitz of tariffs.

US cannot do that because Ukraine simply doesn't have human resources to last 5 years. Sure Ukraine can be pressured to mobilize 18yr old kids now, but how effective do you expect them to be and how long will they last, it'll probably just buy Ukraine another year tops and they'll be in even worse position than now, and then what? Total collapse will cause even more resentment against US and will have ripple effects in EU which it might not be able to survive, look at the already appeared cracks Orban, Fico, Vucic, AfD... Once again, there's no free lunch.

Nice cherry picking job, your specialty as usual.

But all the what ifs that I wrote about are on the table. Ukraine has been able to withstand and let Ruzzia burn people and lots of vehicles, nearly 10.000 military units according to some decent sources. The Ruzzian economy has suffered, and after 3 years it will not be able to cope with serious pressure.

The fact remains that, if the US chooses to put pressure by sending more aid to Ukraine or pressing just even a bit on the oil exports, Ruzzia will start making plenty of goodwill gestures. And this IS a realistic scenario, and it would imply Ruzzia no longer to claim that at least Â is "advancing". Wheter you choose to post pictures and ignore what is happening is irrelevant, anyone can see what is happening in terms of what Putin is saying and what Marco Rubio is saying.

Probable outcome? Ruzzia will not recognise Ukraine, but there will be on-the-ground "guarantees" to keep Ukraine as independent country. That is the outcome.

The only question remaining is how long does the US have to strangle the Ruzzian economy before Putin realises that he has failed in taking Ukraine.

Orban a crack Â Grin

Orban is in Putins pocket but he means nothing, is everyones elses favourite joke. You know what is a crack? The Ruzzian fleet sailing out of Syria.

RE "financial expansionism", some countries out there would be gladly join the queue to have some "financial expansionism" if given the chance.

Current US aid to UA is frozen, Trump talks about starting a trade war with EU, support for more aid to UA in US and EU is at the all time low, and you talk about scenarios where current republican US congress approves and then Trump signs and starts to send even more aid to Ukraine than Biden? Â Undecided

i'm sure that'll happen, any second now, keep believing, just don't hold your breath.

Sure, no NATO, neutral status, minimal military, Russian language gets official status and RU orthodox church, protected in the new UA constitution, no LGBT, new UA government (Z looses), and Russia keeps it's land, and we can get some UN peace keepers there. Pretty sure that's all that Russia asked for from the begging, minus the new territories. Then what was the point of spilling so much blood? This will be an easy sell for Putin, but will Z be able to somehow sell it as a win to Ukrainians or will they run him out to London with pitchforks?

This is what Trump just did to it's closest ally Canada where they were clapping for that Ukrainian Nazi

Quote from: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/02/us/politics/canada-trump-tariffs.html

Even as Canada’s prime minister announced more than $100 billion in retaliatory tariffs, he made clear that he was imposing them reluctantly.
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“We don’t want to be here,” Mr. Trudeau said in a somber televised address from Ottawa that evoked the deep bonds between the two neighbors and close trading partners. “We didn’t ask for this.”
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Mr. Trudeau addressed Americans directly, saying that the U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods would harm them, too.
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Mr. Trudeau is a lame-duck leader at a crucial moment. He has said that he will resign as prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party when his party chooses a new leader, and automatically prime minister, in March. But experts believe the tariffs that take effect on Tuesday will tip the country into a recession, putting hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk.
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But he also focused on the historically close ties between Canada and the U.S., including military cooperation in two world wars as well as the Korean War and the war in Afghanistan. “From the beaches of Normandy to the mountains of the Korean Peninsula, from the fields of Flanders to the streets of Kandahar, we have fought and died alongside you during your darkest hours,” he said.

Looks like Trump doesn't care and is just retaliating against everyone that didn't support him, or supported Biden more.

Yeah Cuba wanted to take a piece of that "financial expansionism", don't think it turned out well for them either, but Z still decided to try

Edit:
Trump is already sending signs to Ukraine

Quote from: https://www.reuters.com/world/us-wants-ukraine-hold-elections-following-ceasefire-says-trump-envoy-2025-02-01/

U.S. wants Ukraine to hold elections following a ceasefire, says Trump envoy
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Keith Kellogg, Trump's special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, said in an interview that Ukrainian presidential and parliamentary elections, suspended during the war with Russia, "need to be done".
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"Most democratic nations have elections in their time of war. I think it is important they do so," Kellogg said. "I think it is good for democracy. That's the beauty of a solid democracy, you have more than one person potentially running."
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His opponents are also encouraged by the barrage of criticism Mr. Trump and his aides have aimed at Mr. Zelensky.

Yep Trump is about to send so much aid to Zelenskyy he won't be able to handle it Â Roll Eyes

Oh, no, he will hand over Ukraine and, now that we are at it, part of Poland and the Baltic countries, and then he will come to the European Union and tell them that they have to spend money in the US military industry.

Surely that sounds like a plan to you.

Do not get confused by the noise, Trump promised to end the war in 2 days and it is not happening, so make your own conclusions about how "accurate" he is when speaking.