Quote from: WatChe on Today at 05:02:30 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 05, 2025, 06:28:19 PM

Quote from: WatChe on February 05, 2025, 07:24:46 AM

I have hard time finding a post from Jan-Feb 2023 when Bitcoin crossed 20k and someone here said that we won't see Bitcoin below 20k again and that prediction is true, at least till now.

I don't think we will see Bitcoin below 90k again. Book mark this, so you can easily find it in 2026 Wink

I doubt that your proclamation has much significance. Sure you could end up being correct, but so what?

I would place slightly less than 50% odds that we don't go below $90k ever again (spot price on Bitstamp, right?). I am not even sure if I would be willing to bet my own 50/50 or less than 50/50 feelings.. which that I think that there are greater than 50% odds that we go below $90k again at some point...

To me, it seems to become bettable when you are giving 100% assurances or something close to high assurances that we are never going to below $90k again.. then that seems like a bit too much certainty, then you should be willing to give high odds on a bet like that, too. especially since you are so confident, right? I doubt that you would even give 90% odds on your statement. which means that I would ONLY have to bet 1/10 the amount that you would have to bet.. something like that...because you are the one expressing so much confidence on your assertion.

In gambling, it's the house that' the winner not the gambler. Unless you are not the house, you must be ready for loss.

Here, we have no house. Therefore if we were to enter into a bet, we can agree to whatever we believe is reasonable, and yeah, we might not agree that the level of disagreement rises enough to be bettable.

Quote from: WatChe on Today at 05:02:30 PM

Having said that yes I am confident that we won't see Bitcoin going below 90k and I am saying that with full confidence. On on the other hand if Bitcoin goes below 90k then I will be one of happiest man, since that will give me some space to buy more.

It's a kind of win-win scenario for me.

If you are certain, then you should be willing to give 10:1 odds are maybe even greater odds than that, especially if you are certain. I hate to bet on down, but if the odds are great enough, then I would not be able to resist. We would not have to have a large bet... it could be something like 0.0001 on the low end (mine) and 0.001 on the high end, yours or some other amount that we might mutually agree.. One of the problems could be figuring out when the bet ends.. so of course, I would win if the BTC price touches any price below $90k .. such as $89,999 or lower (Bitstamp is ONLY measuring in whole dollars), and you would win by the end of 2026 (or something like that) if the BTC spot price does not touch below $90k. I am pretty sure the bet should resolve before the end of 2026, or maybe I could concede that you won if we reach $333,333 or greater prior to touching below $90k?

Quote from: WatChe on Today at 05:02:30 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 05, 2025, 08:47:06 PM

Quote from: WatChe on February 05, 2025, 01:03:27 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 03, 2025, 11:33:50 PM

[edited out]

philpima1957 has it's own versatility style which is difficult to follow or copy Wink

You are doing a pretty good job following in aspects of his from time to time dogmatisms.

You got me wrong JJG, I am an easy going guy with simple beliefs

Dogma is dogma, even if you are the nicest guy since sliced bread.

Philip might have also been a pretty nice guy in the whole scheme of things, but that does not stop him from being quite dogmatic on a fairly regular basis. Sure your dogmatism might ONLY be in regards to this particular prediction, yet if we were to agree upon a bet, then there might be some ability to verify if you are ready, willing and/or able to stand behind your words in ways that go beyond mere words.

By the way, I lost a bet recently from a forum member, and he had given me favorable odds similar to the ones described here.. so I ended up paying.. but BTC's trade-weighted price ended up moving below the 2021 high trade-weighted price, so then I ended up having pay the bet. I knew that the odds were greater than 50% that I would lose the bet, but the agreed to terms were hard to refuse.

Quote from: WatChe on Today at 05:20:35 PM

May be in Jan 2027, when price of Bitcoin will be over 200k or more. We still saying, greater opportunities were just a few weeks and months behind us.

Another interesting idea. Will the BTC price be over or under $200k in January 2027. The odds are probably less than 50/50 that the BTC price will be above $200k in January 2027, but surely not so strong to be bettable.

On the other hand, the odds are probably quite a bit higher 50% that the bitcoin price will go above $200k at some point between now and January 2027.

Quote from: Lucius on Today at 05:21:05 PM

In such circumstances and with the expectation of what exactly will happen with Ukraine,

Wasn't Trump going to resolve Ukraine, even prior to getting into office? hahahahaha

Quote from: Lucius on Today at 05:21:05 PM

people are quite cautious and it suits them to take profits in the range of $90k to $100k

That would be dumb for almost anyone...even someone who had been in bitcoin for a while. I am not going to suggest that people don't do dumb things, including giving their coins to Michael and Larry.

Quote from: Lucius on Today at 05:21:05 PM

- and at the same time all these stories about BTC strategic reserves may indicate that someone behind the scenes is pulling the strings - because if some central banks are going to buy BTC, then it is in their interest for the market to cool down and possibly for the trend to reverse.

How you going to do that when we are in the middle of a bull market?

you are expecting trends to reverse here? In bat country?

Oh my!!!!!

Are you new here?

Quote from: OutOfMemory on Today at 06:07:16 PM

The spot market is sick and the action is mirroring just that.

hahahahaha

Are you talking your book? Sure sub $90k could happen. .. I am not saying that it won't but to be relying on it to happen, seems a bit much. But, yeah, sure, anything can happen.

By the way, Mempools are clearing too.. .. bitcoin is like ded.. ..

or close to ded.

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 06:19:25 PM

Quote from: OutOfMemory on Today at 06:07:16 PM

Quote from: Lucius on Today at 05:21:05 PM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on Today at 01:36:27 PM

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

I am not frustrated nor does the current situation surprise me in any way - because if you look at the time before January 20, when the big gray crypto messiah was enthroned in his new old position, everything looked so great and promising, but after that we got only a lot of negative things in the global context with US claims on the territory of Panama, Denmark (EU) and at the end of the Gaza Strip where TFamily would build a luxury resort at the expense of 2 million people who need to be displaced.

In such circumstances and with the expectation of what exactly will happen with Ukraine, people are quite cautious and it suits them to take profits in the range of $90k to $100k - and at the same time all these stories about BTC strategic reserves may indicate that someone behind the scenes is pulling the strings - because if some central banks are going to buy BTC, then it is in their interest for the market to cool down and possibly for the trend to reverse.

To me, it seems like the market has burned out and got stuck because of the bullish news failing to reflect in the spot prices. We know the reason, and honestly, it doesn't make much sense to trade at the time. News can't be used to anticipate price action, ETFs, Saylor, soon also Banks are buying like crazy at OTC desks, exchanges are milking long and short liquidity on a regular basis. The spot market is sick and the action is mirroring just that.

Spot on, but what are the causes?
To me, it seems that "crypto' (apart from bitcoin) is dying or at least is in a catatonic state.
This comes back to what it's function, overall?

As I said before on multiple occasions: the second layer should have been developed on bitcoin.
Instead, not much was developed on bitcoin and everything else quickly loses relevance, maybe with one or two exceptions (or, maybe even just one and it is not the VB coin).
Inflation hedge with bitcoin and stablecoins for fast payment tx-those are ONLY two applications with large relevance right now.
DeFI could be a third app, but it is hopelessly fragmented and was banged repeatedly by the gov.
The fact that banks would soon be able to issue tokens horrifies me quite a bit.
IMHO, too much acceptance and too much integration into the "old" system gives the field as a whole a "kiss of death".

To what extent bitcoin could stay above the fray would be determined in the next 6-12 mo, imho.

Wow.. .. .just wow... I see that the bear-talking party poopers are out in full force... I mean, sure sub $90k could happen, but still... hardly the end of the world.. Are we no longer in a bull market or something?

Maybe I accidentally clicked the wrong link and got taken to a parallel universe (referring to the WO thread).... Cry

For some reason.. a little off point, but reminded me of this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqgVf_wOKLs

Gotta try to get some kinds of laughs regarding various from time to time world ironies.

Quote from: Volgastallion on Today at 06:45:17 PM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on Today at 01:36:27 PM

Bit frustrating that we seem to be unable to stay above $100,000 for now. We will smash through it and hesd upwards new all time highs but I have to admit I am feeling a little frustrated currently.

I’d like to see $100,000 breached and turned into new support over the next week or so. February is isually a very good month for Bitcoin in a bull run, it’s about time it started acting like it.

I tend to see the full glass and what can i say.

I understand your feelings but is only a psychological number, if we see the whole picture we are surfing above the 90k from a long time so still a very good number and a super performance, every time a hit is taken the BTC only suffer a bit and very fast go up again in hours or days.
If you see in the recent developments the BTC is super strong, maybe one of he most strong "assets" of the whole world.

Deepshit AI? Dont give a fuck,
Trump trade war? Dont give a fuck
BTC remains still standing when Nvidia and other mayors assets fell apart.

Exactamente!!!!!

That's the spirit Volgastallion.

We can look at so many shitcoins getting purged of their froth, and yeah, we cannot always know how it is going to play out, but I see some froth purging going on for anyone who is ready, willing and able to keep their eyes on the prize.. and stop getting bitcoin mixed up with the various other shitcoins and shit projects and various ongoing catastrophes.. .. Bitcoin seems a pretty good place to be whether we have already been here for a while or whether we are still in the process of building our BTC stack.