Quote from: d_eddie on Today at 01:46:16 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 06, 2025, 10:35:02 PM

Quote from: WatChe on February 06, 2025, 05:20:35 PM

May be in Jan 2027, when price of Bitcoin will be over 200k or more. We still saying, greater opportunities were just a few weeks and months behind us.

Another interesting idea. Will the BTC price be over or under $200k in January 2027. The odds are probably less than 50/50 that the BTC price will be above $200k in January 2027, but surely not so strong to be bettable.

On the other hand, the odds are probably quite a bit higher 50% that the bitcoin price will go above $200k at some point between now and January 2027.

Maybe this could be bettable?

Quote from: Bettable maybe?

The BTC price will have reached $200k at least once on Jan 1 2072.

Bearish case seems <0.5 to me, but I'm just saying.

In order to try to stay somewhat grounded in reality, it is way better to try to come up with discussions about dates that are closer in time, and even my projection of the 200-WMA out to 2072 ends up providing numbers that are in the ballpark of $13.5 million.. and, so that is for the bottom prices, and my current projection of the 200-WMA starts to go over $1 million is in 2040.... so yeah, even when I project the 200-WMA, I attempt to adjust that projection every 6 months in order to make any adjustments to where the current 200-WMA has actually arrived as compared with my projections and then maybe tweak any of my forward projections (percentage increases that get smaller with the passage of time)

From my perspective, another thing about if something might be bettable has to do with coming up with members have greatly different views of the outcome so that they might bet willing to take the other side of the bet... Surely if someone says makes a claim that seems outrageous or overly confident, then that certainty level of the claim could make it more bettable - including taking sides and potentially figuring out odds.