Quote from: d_eddie on Today at 03:42:48 PM

Quote from: psycodad on Today at 03:01:08 PM

Recently stumbled across this nifty little python script:

https://utxo.live/oracle/

It claims to find the daily market price by transaction analysis only.
I am still trying to wrap my head around the concept behind it, but for now I'll stick with 'kinda magic'.

I gave it a try on my node and it came up with a price of $97133 for Feb 11th 2025 and $97164 for Feb 10th 2025.
I then tried with Feb 12th 2024 and it gave me $48195 which seems pretty accurate too.

Who would have thought that the blockchain even contains price information..

Friggin amazing what they did there if you ask me.

Very interesting. I perused the source, very well commented ("We encourage you to read the plain english source code", as the guy says), and it looks legit. However, from my quick glance I haven't been able to understand how he infers USD amounts from blockchain transactions.

Code:

# A basic understanding of how UTXOracle works is as follows:

# Take a day's distribution of bitcoin transaction amounts
#
# * * *
# * * * *
# * * * *
# * * * * *
# * * * * * *
# * * * * * * * *
# * * * * * * *
# * * *
# *
# 10k sats 0.01 btc 1 btc 10btc

# Create a smooth stencil to align broadly with a typical output day
#
# * *
# * *
# * *
# * *
# * *
# * *
# * *
# * *
# 10k sats 0.01 btc 1 btc 10btc

# Create a spike stencil that fine tunes the alignment on popular usd amounts
#
# *
# * *
# * *
# * * * *
# * * * * * *
# * * * * * * *
# * * * * * * * * *
# * * * * * * * * *
# $1 $10 $20 $50 $100 $500 $1k $2k $10k
#
# Slide the smooth and spike stencil over the output data and look for the best fit

I think the basic assumption is that people tend to send transactions of $1 $10 $20 $50 $100 $500 $1k $2k or $10k, so the USD amount stays the same but depending on current valuation people need to send different amounts of BTC to transfer the equivalent of $100 or $10k etc.. If you can determine which transactions are like $500 worth probably, you can deduce the price.

Still kinda magic to me - but really cool Cheesy