Quote from: DaRude on February 20, 2025, 10:26:51 PM

Quote from: paxmao on February 20, 2025, 07:53:34 PM

Quote from: DaRude on February 20, 2025, 02:50:56 PM

[...] Pro-Ruzzian stuff [...]

You are late in the news. The US has requested Zelensky to basically give nearly all the mineral resources and a bunch of other things in exchange for nothing, an it was rejected.

Shortly after Trump started calling Zelensky this and that and claiming elections in Ukraine. You do not have to be very smart to understand that elections cannot be carried out:

1 - A large number of people are in the front, and you cannot call them back because THERE IS A WAR.
2 - The risk of influence from Ruzzia in the elections and manipulations is huge because THERE IS A WAR.
3 - The last brilliant idea is to have a ceaser fire and then elections, which is impossible because there will STILL BE A WAR.

I do get that it would be the easy way out, but it is not going to happen. Now:

Ruzzias negotiating position has not changed since the first Ukrainian counter-offensive. Namely:

- Ukraine will not have a noticeable army so it can be invaded again in a few years.
- Ukraine will not be in NATO so it can be invaded again in a few years.
- Ukraine will recognise all the occupied territories, so that these become Ruzzia and further attempt to take them are a direct attack on Ruzzia.

And a few other things like forcing elections in Ukraine right here right now, not recognising Zelensky...

As anyone can figure out, Ukraine will not accept this. I mean, you do not need to be a genius. I mean, only a Kremlin puppet would.

So, can Ukraine keep on the fight?

Without US support it may be difficult to recover ground, but it may be possible to keep a standstill. I am saying this because the front is not moving as it used to. Even from time to time Ukraine recovers a bit here and a bit there.

All this depends on a very motivated player, Europe. Can Europe stick the finger out, pay what needs to be paid and start re-building the military industry? Only if the EU takes it seriously.

And how long does the fight need to go on:

- Ruzzia is gaining ground at the slowed pace ever in the last 3 years (except during the brief Ukrainian counter-attacks).
- Ruzzia economy is just collapsing. And it is no me saying it, it is the top technocrat of Ruzzia (obviously she mentions "factors" because she cannot say "war" and "military spending" but the choice is going to hyperinflation or less military spending. Again, no me saying it, it is Ruzzia. https://youtu.be/CUOmDrgi8XM?t=37
- There are plenty of satellite pictures that show a radical decrease of the soviet stock of vehicles. The slowing of the front is fully linked to lack of adequate means.

My guess is that if Ukraine can keep destroying refineries with their own technology (seem to be working well), get enough means to freeze the conflict it could be one more year at least.

However, the US is doing such a big favour to Ruzzia... I guess Trump is expecting a very very big thank you$$$

You concede that there is nothing in UA constitution that would prevent presidential elections during the martial law, and that it's just plain propaganda to claim so?

So Z must stay in power even if there's a ceasefire, how convenient. Guessing they're afraid of him loosing to a pro Russian candidate were the elections to happen now?

We all see how well Ukraine managed to keep a standstill with US's support for three years, now without US support i'm sure UA will finally be able to do much better and finally achieve that standstill, what a great reason to start mobilizing 18yr olds

Quote from: https://ukranews.com/en/news/1065515-we-have-nothing-to-down-missiles-there-are-no-patriot-missiles-near-one-of-ukrainian-cities

We have nothing to down missiles, there are no Patriot missiles near one of Ukrainian cities - Zelenskyy
...
3-5 in the morning, when the commander calls me and says: "We are near this city, near this city we have no Patriot missiles. That's it, we have run out." He says that 8 missiles are approaching now, but there are no missiles for air defense systems. I think this is wrong. These are the things that make everyone nervous," he explained.

Yep UA doesn't need US at all Â Roll Eyes

I do not concede anything, there are people much better suited than you to interpret. Regardless, elections cannot be held for the following reasons, apart from legal impediments:

Security cannot be guaranteed for voters.
Soldiers are at the front and many people left Ukraine and should have the right to vote.
Large parts of Ukraine are militarily occupied by Ruzzia.
The risk of Putin playing the democracy is to high.

If ALL that is shorted, we can call the lawyers.

Precendets of elections not being held at wartime are common for all the reasons given above.

https://fullfact.org/live/2025/feb/trump-zelenskyy-dictator-elections/

Quote

Under the terms of Ukraine’s constitution, elections cannot be held while the country is under martial law (which was declared by Mr Zelenskyy on 24 February 2022 following Russia’s invasion, and has been extended multiple times by Ukraine’s parliament since).

Experts have also noted a number of practical obstacles to holding elections—around one-fifth of the country is currently occupied by Russia, millions of Ukrainians are displaced or serving on front lines, and there are various security concerns.

Quote

During World War One both the UK and Canada extended their parliamentary terms (effectively delaying elections), while New Zealand postponed elections during World War Two.

Parliamentary elections have also been postponed in Israel due to conflict, for example during the Yom Kippur war in 1973. More recently, in 2023 local elections were pushed back following the 7 October attacks, though these were ultimately held a few months later, while the war in Gaza was still ongoing.

In other cases, though, elections have gone ahead during wartime—for example, Australians[...] the 1944 presidential election was held in the United States (though it’s been explained elsewhere that postponing a US presidential election for a substantial period of time would not be allowed under the country’s constitution).

So, basically elections are postponed when they cannot be safely held.

Finally, do not get fooled by your own propaganda. Zelensky is likely to win an election, the "ratings" published are as credible as the "popularity of Putin".

Ruzzia at this point has made no concession ont the demands, which can only be interpreted as not interested in peace. So, if you want elections, start working on that.

BTW... when elections in Ruzzia with more than one candidate (alive)... you know...if you change Putin maybe Ukraine can find someone legitimate to negotiate.