Just to clarify the above table shows the bitcoin price at the time of the halvening, and surely each year bitcoin has a price range that can be quite broad both in terms of absolute number and even in terms of percentage differences between highs and lows for the year.  

We can put those kinds of charts together ourselves and see the highs and lows for each of the years and compare them.

Another thing that we can do to valuate our BTC is to look at the 200-WMA (which is the average weekly price for the past 4 years), and we can see that so far in bitcoin's history the 200-WMA has ONLY been going up.  The 200-WMA is not guaranteed to continue to go up, even though it can still give us some guidelines in regards to bitcoin's value including that if we invest fairly steadily and readily into bitcoin for 4 years, then our average cost per BTC should be somewhere around the 200-WMA, and frequently the BTC spot price is 25% or  more higher than the 200-WMA.  Right now BTC's spot price of $86.6k is about 84% higher than the 200-WMA of $44.9k.


I understand that my formulas for bitcoin are a bit complicated based on valuating based on the 200-WMA and using a 10% withdrawal rate based on the 200-WMA.  

I think that any other assets that you invest into, you need to use the traditional 4% withdrawal rate.  So in that regard, I am not emphasizing the amount as much as I am emphasizing the income that you project that you need and you are able to withdraw from your investment without depleting its principle... so in that regard, the principle should continue to grow at least as fast as you are withdrawing from it, and even greater than the rate that you are withdrawing from it in order to account for the debasement of the fiat and/or the cost of living increases.  

So, I am trying to suggest that if you have good systems in place, then you bitcoin value should be growing faster than what you are withdrawing from it, so each year you are able to keep up with the cost of living increases by increasing your withdrawal rate, even in years that the increases in the cost of living might be 2% to 5% and perhaps other years the increases in the cost of living might be 10% to 15%. ..

and yeah, surely some currencies debase faster than others, so we need to consider those rate of depreciation expectation matters too... even though I doubt that any of us necessarily need to be future price prediction gurus when we are largely keeping decent portions of our value in bitcoin.. and yeah, sure we can monitor the extent to which the BTC price might start to fall below 25% higher than the 200-WMA in order to attempt to anticipate if we might need to lessen our withdrawal rate so that we are not overly depleting our principle, and/or we can potentially withdraw at a bit higher rates if we see that the BTC price is several times higher than the 200-WMA, perhaps in order to prepare ourselves for times in which the BTC price is lower (such as lower than 25% above the 200-WMA or lower than that).

Of course, any of my formulas are likely going to be more informed when any of us have reached or exceeded our BTC accumulation amount, so right now in the west, if we consider our BTC accumulation target as 17.84 BTC to generate an income of $80k per year in perpetuity, and we continue to monitor the amount so that if we are starting to cash out, then our BTC value never goes below $800k in terms of it's 200-WMA.  It surely would help our situation if we might have a few BTC extra, so then we would be spending from the extra cushion rather than potentially depleting our BTC stash below the current entry level threshold for fuck you status.  

I have been monitoring the threshold amount for entry-level fuck you status for several months now, and I have even been looking back at prior years to see that the quantity of BTC needed to reach the minimum threshold levels continues to go down at a quite considerable rate, and in recent weeks/months, the threshold amount of BTC to be able to live off of a $80k per year income from your bitcoin has been going down 0.01 BTC to 0.02 BTC each day.  Of course, the lower the threshold entry-level number goes, the lower the amount it is going to reduce each day too... which still gets us back to the idea that the amount of BTC needed to reach the threshold (whatever your threshold might be in terms of dollar value) is likely to continue to half about every 3-4 years.

And yeah sure, we cannot exactly know the future, even though we can attempt to have various cushions in place, which also gets me back to the suggestion that it is good for a guy to exceed his threshold amount, and then largely to be ongoingly spending (withdrawing) from his excess amount of BTC and making sure that his principle is staying higher than his fuck you status threshold amount - where-ever he puts that.  Think about the guy who considers that he has a desire to maintain an $80k annual income into perpetuity, and so he considers that today 17.84 BTC is his threshold amount to be within that status to start his sustainable withdrawal practices that might be based on price and/or time.  Think about how much better he would feel if he were to have 21 BTC rather than the bare minimum of 17.84 BTC?   That would mean that he currently has 4.16 BTC extra upon which to create a psychological cushion and in order to start withdrawing, whether he starts withdrawing monthly, quarterly, semi-annually, annually or on some other basis.  Surely if he were going to cash out a year in advance, then he would need to cash out right around 1 BTC, which would bring his holdings down to 20 BTC.  Otherwise maybe he just cashes out once a month.. but then surely the BTC price varies a lot, so he might want to try to time his cashing out in order to expect to have to cash out less, rather than more, and surely if he had started to cash out in January when the BTC price was around $109k, then he would have had ONLY around 0.74 BTC in order to have his $80k cashed out in advance.


I know the feeling of not having any (or hardly any income), and I had similar circumstances in my younger years, including that some guys (including myself) decide to go to college, which costs money to go to college and to continue to support ourselves, and being in college can also take away time to be able to earn money.  Some of our goals in going to college might relate to being able to earn more money at a later date, and hopefully to make the college to be worth while in terms of doors it might open to future income opportunities... and even life satisfaction opportunities.


I think that there is a common misconception in regards to selling.  I was not selling with an intention to buy back cheaper, but instead I was selling as a form of downside insurance and also to provide money so that if I wanted to spend some of it that I sold.

Once you have assessed that you have enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin, then you would be selling from the excess amounts of bitcoin, so sure I did end up buying Bitcoin back at lower prices since the BTC price fluctuated a lot, yet my intention was never to increase my BTC stash.  Believe it or not.  People have a hard time understanding this aspect of bitcoin portfolio management. and the fact that any sales are coming from an overaccumulated amount of BTC.

When I first started selling BTC, I had considered that I had reached a status of overaccumulation, and so I created various my formulas that would allow me to sell certain portions of BTC on the way up, including that the amounts were so small that the dollar value of my BTC holdings would continue to go up faster than the amount that I would sell, so in that regard, I considered the sold amounts to be providing insurance for the downside and not necessarily any kind of way to increase my BTC stash, even if some increase in my BTC stash size would end up being a bit of a side-effect in the event that the BTC price were to go down.  

If BTC prices were around $250 in 2015, and if I had 10 BTC, then my total BTC stash would have had been worth $2,500.  If the BTC price doubled to $500, then my BTC stash would be worth $5k, so I could consider that my stash would be 50% in profits and 50% principle.  

If I were ONLY to sell from the profits, then I could sell half of the profits or even less than half of the profits, so in those beginning times, I had authorized myself to sell up to 10% of the stash size for every time that the BTC price doubled, yet as time went on, the amount that I authorized myself to sell became less and less and any portions that I did not sell that were in profits would compound upon themselves.  If I were to sell up to 10% of a 10 BTC stash, then that would bring the BTC stash size down to 9 BTC which would be valued at $4,500 with $500 in cash that would have had been generated from the sale.  So a stash could be depleted a lot if the stash is not in an overaccumulation stage, and at that time, I had considered my stash to be overaccumulated by around 35%..  My then goal was to have BTC to be 10% of my quasi-liquid investment portfolio, yet at that time (towards the end of 2015), my BTC portfolio had reached 13.5% of my total quasi-liquid investment portfolio.

These days, I am selling less than 3% of the value of my BTC holdings for every time that the BTC price doubles.. .which means that more and more of the value of my BTC holdings is compounding upon itself, I am mostly erroring on the side of holding my BTC, and I consider any amount of BTC that I sell to be insurance for downside protection rather than ways to increase my BTC stash size - even if there is some marginal increase in my stash size from buying back bitcoin when the BTC price goes down, largely my BTC stash size is mostly just maintaining itself rather than increasing in size.

In other words, I am way better off if the BTC price goes up rather down in terms of my BTC valuation, and I do not consider any of my BTC sales to be major in their amounts or attempts to trade or to buy back cheaper rather than just maintaining my stack and/or providing some downside price protection insurance in regards to the amounts of BTC that I am continuing to sell when the BTC price goes up.


I have continued in the same practice since 2015.  I consider my system to largely be price neutral, and I consider that I have ONLY been able to do it based on my having had considered myself to have had reached a status of overaccumulation in 2015, and even though I have adapted several of my formulas over the years, I have been following the same system, and I do not consider what I am doing to be trading.  People have accused me of trading, and I proclaim that I am not, based on how I am doing it and the way that I have my system set up in terms of price neutrality and also in terms of having had assessed myself to have had reached a status of overaccumulation.. which my system has largely been allowing my bitcoin value to mostly compound upon itself around 8 or 9 times since 2015 when the BTC price was around $250.  See my compounding value table to show 2015 until present.


Volatility seems to be going down, yet I still would consider bitcoin's volatility to be inevitable, including that sometimes there seem to be some strange battles going on behind the scenes, which I cannot see those battles and even manipulations or even discovery of fraud (such as third-parties not having the coins that they claim to have) from continuing to be going on and to discovered through the price and/or through various news outcomes from time to time.

Of course, bitcoin's investment thesis is stronger now, as compared with 2015, but at the same time, its volatility has not likely completely gone away, even though it seems to be likely that the upside potential (in terms of percentages) are not likely to be as great, even if I personally consider that bitcoin's current addressable market is in the ballpark of $1 quadrillion, we are around 500x below that amount, yet in the past bitcoin has done around 200x price appreciation between 2015 and present... if we consider $250 as the 2015 price and $109k as our most recent BTC price top.

Some folks talk about $1 million bitcoin as if it were some amazing price, and that hardly seems to be very far into the distance with a mere 10x price appreciation.. whether we see an additional 10x this cycle or maybe the next cycle, yet I have a hard time considering that it might take us longer than a whole cycle or a cycle and a half in order to reach another 10x in the BTC price.. even though surely we should not be taking any of BTC's future price appreciations for granted.


You (GiftedMAN) have a strange way of describing our motivations to buy the dip, as if there were not trade offs in regards to guys who might choose to hold back some value from their DCA in order to plan to buy dips that may or may not end up happening.

It is better for beginners to focus on DCA rather than buying dips, even though sure there could be some circumstances that make sense to hold back some value for buying BTC dips rather than just buying regularly with whatever DCA amounts of funds are available as they come in.

Sure you will be able to get more BTC if you buy on a dip versus if you buy right before a dip, yet holding back to buy on dips likely puts you into the wrong kind of mindset - unless you are still prioritizing buying regularly and having some limits in regards to how you are constructing your dip buys, if you conclude/speculate that you are getting some benefit from that.

I will agree that there can be some psychological satisfaction to buy the dip, yet that psychological factor does not necessarily justify putting systems in place to wait for the dip rather than buying regularly as the money comes in... or alternatively, if you have $100 coming in every week, and you decide to buy $80 right away and hold the other $20 for buying dips, then you have to figure out how much of a dip you need to use the $20 and how large will you let the $20 per week grow before you use it.  After 10 weeks, the $20 per week will add up to $200 if you had not yet used it.  The answers are not obvious, so each of us (including newbies to bitcoin) has to figure out if there might be reasonable ways to supplement any of our DCA practices with buying on dips... dips that may or may not end up happening.