The bigger the picture the better the argument?

Quote from: DaRude on April 08, 2025, 03:34:43 PM

Quote from: paxmao on April 08, 2025, 11:41:46 AM

Quote from: DaRude on April 07, 2025, 07:23:28 PM

Quote from: paxmao on April 07, 2025, 06:27:15 PM

Until what? Well, Ruzzia has the objective of becoming the USSR again, with influence or direct control over all the Warsaw Pact. So, I guess the war can go on until there is a leader in Ruzzia who decides that there may be much much better ways of making Ruzzia a decent and economically prosperous region.

Alternatively, the war can go on until the oil reaches 40 USD at which point the war will not be sustainable. Or, it can go on until Ruzzia does not longer have oild exporting facilities West of Moscow, or perhaps not either East of Moscow....

Why setting a dealine? It is worth having Ruzzia bagging the head against the wall.

But that is iddle talk, Rubio recently stated that it will be known if Ruzzia wants peace in weeks rather than in months. I mean, I personally already know that Putin does not want peace under the current circumstances and particularly since Trump has been very floral about him, but as I mentioned in a few posts before, Trump is still learning the basics of Ruzzian "diplomacy".

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/4/us-will-know-in-weeks-if-russia-serious-about-ceasefire-rubio-says

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Top US diplomat tells NATO counterparts Washington still committed to alliance.

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United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told his NATO counterparts that it will become clear within weeks if Russia is “serious” about reaching a ceasefire in Ukraine.

He is basically speaking of considering "facts" not declarations, words or anything else. As said, I would not need to wait but I guess Rubio does not want to immediatly send decissive aid to Ukraine before having some further reasons.

So just going back to status quo of 2013 is not an option? Your whole propaganda is based on the concept that Russia will attack Poland, Czech republic etc?

Will Ukraine be able to continue to provide enough manpower until there's that change of leadership in Russia you speak of? Or no one really considers UA people or cares enough to even discuss it

Edit: Russia wants peace, just on their terms. But peace on any terms for Zelenskiy means he's no longer a president (if he's even a legitimate president now)

Of course Ruzzia wants peace on their terms. The problem is obviously, the terms which basically consist in getting everything ready for the next invasion. What do you pretend here? Getting people to think Putin is peaceful after 3 years of war? That is cute.

My current thinking and that of many others is that:

- Ruzzia has lost long time ago any credibility in respect to what Putin says and what Putin signs.
- There is clear and factual evidence before everyone's eyes that Ruzzia is willing to invade independent countries, and still believe they have some "right" to do so.

It is irrelevant what you believe or what I believe and certainly calling it propaganda is very stupid from you. There is no propaganda, this is what the current thinking is across many countries.

The fact is that there is no reason whatsoever to allow Ruzzia to take Ukraine, change governments at whim nor use the nuclear capability to threaten others. Wheter Ruzzia has very nice intentions and would not go further than Ukraine... as said, all we know is what Putin has done until now and it is by far safer to think that he will invade the moment he percieves weakness or an opportunity.

The best chance for peace: leave Ruzzia weapons stocks as low as possible, the country with as much debt as possible, the sanctions as high as possible, the diplomacy as damaged as possible and the energy infrastructure destroyed - if possible for several years, while putting in front a modern and well supplied army.

That is "peace guarantees", not a piece of paper. This can be done and should be done - again, the thinking of many based on facts.

BTW, Â seems like oil is reaching a point in which war is going to be even more difficult to finance for Ruzzia. Putin may decide to wait until it goes back to 60 or 70 to invade again - it has been the pattern for now.

That's where we partially agree. The fact is that there is no reason whatsoever to allow another country to change Ukrainian government at a whim. I'm sure everyone would agree that a third highest diplomat from a country on another continent, bringing cookies and supporting coup d'etat against dully elected democratic government is direct meddling by everyone's definition. As we're all well aware, it has been done all over the world, but Ukraine was a red line for Russia, which US decided to ignore. Putin is irrelevant here, we see that Russian elites, generals, and society in general are willing to spill their blood over Ukraine because it is an existential threat for Russia. Thinking that the same applies to Poland (that NATO in Poland is an existential threat to Russia) is just a scary propaganda Ukraine pushes to drum up support for itself, since it became clear that continuing to take Ukraine with force is just no longer of interest for the west.

[...]
Nuland is also heard weighing in on the make-up of the next Ukrainian government.
She is heard telling Ambassador Pyatt that she doesn’t think Vitaly Klitschko, the boxer-turned-politician who is a main opposition leader, should have a role in a new government.

“So I don’t think Klitsch (Klitschko) should go into the government,” she said. “I don’t think it’s necessary. I don’t think it’s a good idea.”

She also comments on possible future roles for the two other main protest leaders, Ukraine's former economy minister Arseny Yatseniuk and Oleh Tyahnybok, the far-right nationalist opposition leader.

“I think [Yatseniuk] is the guy who’s got the economic experience, the governing experience. What he needs is [Klitschko] and [Tyahnybok] on the outside. He needs to be talking to them four times a week,” Nuland said in the recording.
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but i'm sure you'll find a way to justify this with American exceptionalism and how that's somehow totally acceptable

You're once again (at this point I'm assuming intentionally) confusing the cause and effect. Dropping oil prices is the effect of the world going into recession, we already see that USA stopped allocating money to Ukraine and now ask yourself what will happen to European aid to Ukraine once Europe itself enters into a recession. But keep on drumming up support to encourage more Ukrainian young to go to the front lines, knowing the futility of this and that outcome has already been decided

Oh again your fixation... Well let's then talk about what is acceptable...

- On one side you are ok with the imperial vision of Ruzzia as dominant power with full right to impose conditions around and have an area of influence. You are absolutely ok with Ruzzia trying to change a government, not even by soft power, but by direct anhilation.

- while at the same time you complain because someone else think of themselves exactly in the same terms and does the same things (in you view anyway).

Basically, you are complaning of another taur being better a cheating = at a cheater's poker table - than you.You cannot be taken seriously.

Either you accept an imperialistic view, in which case Ruzzia is clearly loosing the case or you are in favour of allowing people to vote, in which case... you are also loosing it.

BTW again and again and again...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation

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n February and March 2014, Russia invaded the Crimean Peninsula, part of Ukraine, and then annexed it. This took place in the relative power vacuum[34] immediately following the Revolution of Dignity. It marked the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian War.

Anyone can see why Ukraine was seeking allies, not the other way around.

Again and again... Putin does not need a reason to think he owns half the world...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War

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The August 2008 Russo-Georgian War, also known as the Russian invasion of Georgia,[note 3] was a war waged against Georgia by the Russian Federation and the Russian-backed separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The fighting took place in the strategically important South Caucasus region. It is regarded as the first European war of the 21st century.[31]