Quote from: Free Market Capitalist on April 15, 2025, 08:41:30 AM

Quote from: apogio on April 14, 2025, 05:33:52 PM

Correlation is calculated using specific data at specific times and is a mathematical equation. It's not about graphs and empirical observations.

In fact, Bitcoin and the S&P500 (US market) are astonishingly highly correlated.

I 've collected the prices on April 1st of each year from 2015 until 2025 (10 years of historical data).

The results give a 0.959484 correlation.

Nice calculations that prove nothing. I mean the bitcoin price multiplied by 400 in that period while the S&P only like by 2.55 and they are supposed to be highly correlated?

The supposed correlations are human patterns, they do not exist, they are regularities that we project to better understand the phenomena.

I have to remind you of the classical example of people drowning in pools correlated to Nicolas Cage appearing in films.

Quote from: pooya87 on April 15, 2025, 04:55:08 AM

Markets are too complex to be measured and analyzed using math and equations.

It's just like that.

Correlation just means they move in tandem in the same direction, not necessarily at the same rate. The base multiplier for BTC is much lower because the BTC marketcap is much lower and so it requires less money to move than the SP500. If you sum all the 500 businesses in the SP500 you get around $44 trillion, so that is of course a giant much slower to move. The point here is that it moves in the same direction, is just that BTC moves at faster speed, it is higher beta to SP500 of just more volatility, like a leveraged ETF if you want to make the comparative. And so far charts prove that BTC is not acting as gold. However it may start acting as gold at any time, these things are not planned ahead, they just happen due market consensus, and maybe we could see the SP500 crash while the BTC performs well and those that sell miss this move.