Quote from: AlcoHoDL on Today at 05:04:21 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 06:25:33 AM

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on May 25, 2025, 09:06:30 AM

ATH achieved!
Jay was wrong and I was right,
But we're all winners!

Hahahahaha
Nice humor.

I like this, but I don't like it.

Let me see if I can reiterate an angle of the right wrong matter.

Right around the first week of May, someone said.. cough cough cough AlcoHoDL, that there was 99% or was it 100% chance? that BTC would break above the ATH, which was $109,356-ish.. and I said that I would take the otherside of that bet as long as I got 99% odds in terms of the amount of money (aka bitcoin) that I would be putting up. Sure, the amount on my end would hav had been small relative to the other side (somewhere in the ball park of 1/100th the size, and someone did not take the other side of such bet.. which means that such someone did not really believe the odds were 99%-ish or greater... otherwise such person would have had taken the other side of such sure bet... From the perspective of this here cat, 99% is a pretty high level of confidence.. if someone were to actually have that high of a level of confidence.. which no such person took the other side of the bet.. I proposed that I would have had taken the side of the bet in which I would put up 1/100th the amount.. which might have had been in the $10 arena (even though our terms were in bitcoin) while the other side of the bet would have had been around $1k.. and so I would have had lost $10 at the risk of potentially winning $1k.. I will take 1/100 odd bets any day, especially when the real odds were potentially somewhere in the 60% to 70% arena at the time of the proposal. .and even though at this time, the happening is at 100%, since it is now in the past and it already happened, as we all know..

I'll keep the part that you like. 🧡

Semantics are trees,
In an infinite forest.
Counting is futile!
#tl;dr:haiku

I am not proposing any changes and/or deletions to any of your weekly 7 versions of creativity, since I already made my comment about such fantasylandia contents of the one cited above (hahahaha).

Second, I did edit that above portion of my post, since when I read through it, I thought that there were areas that could have had been MOAR smoother and MOAR clearer.

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on Today at 05:04:21 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 06:25:33 AM

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on May 25, 2025, 09:06:30 AM

Yes, dreams do come true.
A genie in a bottle.
The keys to your coins!

Maybe some of us feel guilt about the whole path of bitcoin? It is not like we knew, which may be the reason that some of us invested in the ballpark of 13.5% of our quasi-liquid investment portfolio instead of a higher amount.. and also maybe a reason why some of us (such as yours truly) started shaving off extra trimmings starting at $250-ish.. and still, its amazing that the value has largely been compounding upon itself in terms of our having had around 9 doublings since $250. (See list of the doublings, and see that the 9th doubling since $250 will be completed at $128k). [...]

You are not alone. I didn't know either. Do I regret hesitating? Yes! But I'm happy to be where I am. It's a positive feedback loop. Once you see the forest, you'll never care about counting trees.

Doubt. Hesitation.
Knowledge. Accumulation.
Now, feel the thunder!
#blessedhaiku

I think that there has been some value in the outcome of hesitation and/or conservatism of whatever various investments that we made (yet I cannot completely speak for your own particulars), and I still think that largely based on my own then knowledge and the context of the then times, I was being as aggressive as I could have had been with my investment into bitcoin without overdoing it, even though in subsequent years, I have strengthened my perceptions of BTC's investment thesis, but I cannot really go back and say that I would have or could have had been more aggressive in my approach to bitcoin based on my then knowledge and my then financial and psychological circumstances -

- even though in recent times, I am recommending guys to be even more aggressive than I was, yet I have increased my own recommendations of actions because bitcoin's investment thesis has become stronger and it seem that the Bigger and BIGGER players are both hoarding bitcoin and telling others about their plans to hoard bitcoin.. so in some sense, out of self preservation, normies need to step up their bitcoin accumulation game otherwise they are going to end up getting left behind and having way fewer coins than they could have had if they had gotten started accumulating bitcoin. Currently, it is not looking good for a lot of retail sitting on their hands, even when we have governments, institutions and status quo rich folks talking about their bitcoin treasury plans.

It is not even guaranteed that bitcoin prices are going up from here or that they won't correct back down to these current prices or that bitcoin prices might not go back below $100k, yet it still remains the case that the ONLY way to prepare for UP is to buy bitcoin, and since many normies (perhaps 99% of the world's population) are failing/refusing to buy bitcoin, they are failing/refusing to prepare their lil selfies for UPpity.

Quote from: goldkingcoiner on Today at 05:04:57 PM

Quote from: OgNasty on Today at 04:48:27 PM

I hope everyone isn’t wrong.

That pretty much sums up my investment decision-making.

When it comes to bitcoin, that is not a very good approach, even though surely a lot of folks are failing/refusing to invest into bitcoin in part based on their perceptions regarding what "other people think." There are even people who have recently become quite against bitcoin ever since Trump started talking up bitcoin, and many of us could give less than two ratt's asses about what Trump says or claims about bitcoin, even though he may be contributing to pumping bags that we had more than 10 years prior to his grifting onto the bitcoin scene... to the extent that he might short-termedly screw things up to the extent that bitcoin gives any shits either.

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 05:47:00 PM

Quote from: goldkingcoiner on Today at 05:04:57 PM

Quote from: OgNasty on Today at 04:48:27 PM

I hope everyone isn’t wrong.

That pretty much sums up my investment decision-making.

In this case "everyone" are still only the most daring WS firms.
Just look at the recent MSFT shareholder voting for a minor btc inclusion...afair, something like 95% voted "No".

I am still of the opinion that the local top would be at or shortly after the MTSR SP500 inclusion, which could be in September-October timeframe.
The last peak with the most "conviction" was in April 2021 at the Coinbase IPO (the followup ATH in Nov 2021 was with much less bullish indicators, so, imho, was a secondary, inertia peak that was there just for a day or two)

Even though you are correct that in terms of various kinds of averages and even the debasement of the dollar, the first peak of just below $65k in April 2021 was likely higher than the second peak of $69k in November 2021, but still the BTC price dipped down to below $30k and it took several months to get back to $69k, and another thing is that if you are hinging on that tightness to your technical analysis, then yoiu are likely being too strict in regards to either understanding bitcoin (in terms of it ongoing exponential s-curve adoption component) or even giving a sufficiently large enough discount to reliance on technical analysis.

Quote from: El duderino_ on Today at 06:20:43 PM

Quote from: OgNasty on Today at 04:48:27 PM

I’m seeing a lot of treasury stacking announcements today from different companies all over the world. Clearly BTC is being eaten off exchanges and OTC. The upward pressure is real and nobody knows how high we’re going over the next 110 days, but I’m fairly certain everybody knows it is going higher. I hope everyone isn’t wrong.

Let the majority be rewarded

"We" know that it is really not "the majority" that understand and/or are buying bitcoin. There is a lot of exaggeration in the "everyone knows" and "everyone is getting onboard" assertions. 99%-ish of retail is still being left out (sure perhaps due to their own lackenings in regards to either getting started and/or being proactive in their looking into bitcoin.

In this case, everybody knows is an exaggeration.

Quote from: OgNasty on Today at 06:44:18 PM

Quote from: El duderino_ on Today at 06:20:43 PM

Quote from: OgNasty on Today at 04:48:27 PM

I’m seeing a lot of treasury stacking announcements today from different companies all over the world. Clearly BTC is being eaten off exchanges and OTC. The upward pressure is real and nobody knows how high we’re going over the next 110 days, but I’m fairly certain everybody knows it is going higher. I hope everyone isn’t wrong.

Let the majority be rewarded

Is it the majority though? That's my question. When I look at these forums, read my news feed, or watch the media the algorithms force on me, it is clear that everyone thinks Bitcoin is going to the moon. When I talk with strangers at a bar, my acquaintances on Facebook, or even friends in real life, it seems that none of them have any exposure to Bitcoin. That doesn't feel like the majority to me, but that's just my own sample size.

I think we may all be operating in a bubble and to normies outside the world of finance, Bitcoin is a scam. Maybe that's why they're waiting for the price to start going straight up to jump in. They want to jump in at the top and lose all their money in the bear market so they can be right that Bitcoin is a scam. When people tell you what they want, listen.

One thing I've learned in life (sadly), there are more people who want to see you fail than want to see themselves succeed with you.

Even if we attempt to take out your level of jadedness and your smarter than everyone else sentiment, you still make a correct insight that everybody (not even close to a majority) does not know about bitcoin. Sure, there are large segments of the society that have heard the word bitcoin, but they hardly have a clue about what bitcoin is, and if they did know what bitcoin is, then they would at least have some, even if it might ONLY be 1-5% of their quasi-liquid investment portfolio or 1% to 5% of their income dollar cost averaged into it starting from as soon as possible..

It is going to take a bit of time for normies to realize that they need to buy some bitcoin, and surely it is going to cost more and more for those who are waiting longer and longer to get into bitcoin, and yeah, they are going to cause those of us who have 0.21 BTC or more to appear like rich as fuck, since they won't even be able to accumulate 0.21 BTC over 5-10 years or more... even if they are able to currently start at investing into bitcoin at $100 to $200 per week.. and that really is not that much money, even though it seems like a lot right now.. yet those of us who might have had started investing into bitcoin in late 2013 or earlier, we might have had been able to become rich as fuck by merely buying $10 of bitcoin per week..

Think about it, a guy who started investing $10 per week into bitcoin in near the top of the BTC price in November 2013 would have had invested around $6k by now and would have had accumulated about 4.74 bitcoin... Such $10 per week investment would have had really paid off for such person getting into bitcoin in late 2013, yet right now, I am having my doubts about a person starting right now with $200 per week into bitcoin to be able to accumulate 0.21 BTC or more within the next 10 years. We cannot be sure, even though we can see information about a lot of governments, institutions and status quo rich folks talking about plans to hoard bitcoin, which surely contributes to upward pressures on bitcoin prices..

Quote from: darbitmobilerecovery on Today at 07:20:26 PM

Quote from: Paashaas on Today at 06:31:49 PM

X

So in summary your are saying by that image "fasten your seatbelts".
Because when that runs out of BTC all the pressure is gonna push the BTC price to the sky.

Nice to be part of this airplane to the sky, maybe i dont have a bussiness seat like Michael Saylor but im feeling comfortable from my economic seat. Grin

First. There is some validity to those theories about the disappearance of BTC from exchanges and from OTC desks, yet as the BTC price goes up, there are still going to be some folks who are willing to put their bitcoin in such places if they are given more money for them, and there will be guys selling at all price points on the way up, and surely some of them might ONLY be selling very small portions of their stash on the way up, too.

Second, we don't really need that many bitcoin in order to be in quite a good position, especially for guys who were accumulating prior to 2021, and who may well might have had largely finished their BTC accumulation prior to 2021, even as low as 10 BTC would put some of them in a position to either be at their entry-level fuck you status, or maybe within reach of being there within the next 2-4 years with the same BTC stash size which means that they don't even need to accumulate more bitcoin.

Surely the longer in the better, yet from your registration date, I see right around 28 months of your registration time on the forum, so unless you front-loaded your bitcoin investment or maybe you got into bitcoin earlier than your forum registration date, otherwise, I would think that most guys are better off to just keep accumulating bitcoin for a whole cycle or even more than a whole cycle in order to get to a sufficiently adequate BTC stash size so that they can sit back and relax. .yet you are implying that you are already at such stage of being able to sit back and relax - based on your already accumulated BTC stack size?