I doubt that it is very helpful to refer to various strategies as if that is important, since it seems a wee bit dumbass to be trying to trade bitcoin or shitcoins in order to accumulate more bitcoin rather than just ongoingly buying bitcoin persistently, consistently, regularly and perhaps even aggressively, especially in the first four years and perhaps longer of the person's time in bitcoin.

I have difficulties imagining very many situations of normies in which they had sufficiently lump sum invested and/or front loaded their bitcoin investment to get enough bitcoin in less than 4 years of accumulating, yet surely determinations in regards to if they have enough bitcoin or more than enough bitcoin are within their discretion to determine.. and even in your case adam.. Unless you have been accumulating bitcoin longer than your forum registration date, I can hardly imagine any scenarios that you would have had accumulated even close to enough bitcoin to be thinking of anything other than ongoing buying.. so I am not really sure what you mean when you are referring to various strategies, since to me it seems that any strategy for bitcoin newbies that involves anything other than ongoing and persistent buying seems like a dumb and/or short-sighted strategy... so sure, maybe you can explain and/or elaborate if you think that either you or someone similarly situated to you would have had been able to accumulate even close to enough bitcoin in around 6-ish months or less, if given your forum registration date might have been the ballpark time in which you first got into bitcoin.


Bullshit.  Bitcoin prices do not follow hashrate.  If you think that they do, you are suffering an allusion related to correlation rather than causation.


It would end up being a pretty low all time high if we ended up having $112k for our high for this cycle.  I would think that the odds are less than 35% for that kind of a scenario.. which sure, 35% is nothing to sneeze at, but seems a fairly minority scenario to the extent that my SOMA^tm assessment matters.


"Always"?  I am not sure about that.  I would say that "I have my moments."  hahahahaha.. yet sometimes, it is can be helpful if anyone one gives such an assessment "a shot" - because trying to figure out where we are at based on from where we came from and considering where we might be going, it tends to not be easy - which surely causes differing assessments in regards to the extent that we consider holding bitcoin to be in our individual interests.

You and I might be in some kind of a similar situation based on our timelines and my understanding of some of your historical posts in terms of how you had concluded to manage your bitcoin holdings over the years... which I understand that you likely were accumulating and selling more bitcoin than me in the earlier years, yet at some point you came to a realization (perhaps an agreement) that selling so many of dee cornz was not as good of an approach as compared with selling them more slowly and letting the process play itself out... so yeah, sometimes it is interesting to consider the situations of other forum members without really knowing with exactitude.. and surely my own claims of having more than 0.63 BTC and also my claims of having an average cost per BTC of $1k-ish might need to be adjusted.  I have been considering that my forward costs might have to go up to $10k per coin.. perhaps.  It still makes the calculations round, but does not create impressions of outrageousness... you know?.. or what do you think about transitioning with $5k costs per bitcoin as a kind of intermediary? 

Any of the $1k through $10k numbers could be reasonable.. .maybe $5k might be better than moving directly to $10k.. but yeah, I know a lot of forum members who are likely claiming average cost per BTC numbers in the $1k to $10k range.  Remember Mindrust's numbers were supposedly around $4k to $4.5k.. which surely would not have had been bad, and even if he had screwed up less than his ultimate screw up, he could have still maintained something in the $6k to $8k range, which would have had been killer as fuck with 10 BTC or even more than 10 BTC, and at the time in 2020, he was acting as if he was small potatoes, yet even back then (in around March of 2020), many of us already recognized 10 BTC or more to be a pretty decent-size stash and not necessarily easy for normies to have had achieved and to have had been able to figure out ways to both build it and then to hang onto them.  Can you imagine... I think that around then we were still talking about entry-level fuck you status to have had been around $1 million (meaning a $3,333 per month passive income from the BTC), and he said that he did not even need $1 million..

Mindrust said that he would have had been quite happy with half of that.. meaning something like a $1,667 per month passive income).  Surely many of us know that by now, 10 BTC, would be entry level to a passive income of around $48k per year, which would be around $4k per month. which would have had been quite a bit more than Mindrust's target level.. ONLY around 5 years later... sure inflation went up in the last 5 years, yet even if we double Mindrust's stated target of $1,667 per month, we still would currently be exceeding that with a 10 BTC holdings.

Surely back on March 12, 2020 many of us did not necessarily appreciate the power of 10 BTC, even though at that time, it still had the power of generating a $5,500 per year passive income, yet surely the levl of the passive income that 10 BTC could generate has gone up close to 9x.


It seems to me that as long as any of us do not sell too many bitcoin too soon, then there are ways to pace our sales in such a way that the value of our bitcoin is likely growing much faster than the rate that we sell it, so in that sense there can be a lot of power in making sure that we have enough and/or more than enough bitcoin, since many income sources for retired peeps do not tend to keep up with the debasement of the dollar and/or the cost of living increases, yet it seems that bitcoin does, as long as we do not end up selling too much of our stash too soon. Hopefully that has been your general experience, without my necessarily needing to outline some hypothetical.. even the Mindrust 10-ish BTC one from my earlier response (above).


It is a little sad that retail is likely going to end up getting reckt this time around since a certain limited number of institutions, governments and perhaps status quo rich folks are likely pumping up the price this time around in the coming months.


I question the feasibility, the playing out and the characterization of any "sideways summer" thesis.


Sure... but giving 90% to 99% odds might still be problematic, even though it might work to say 99% odds that the $74.5k bottom is in, even though it is probably closer to 75% odds, not that I consider those to be bettable, even though I still would be willing to bet that the BTC price will not drop below 25% above the 200-WMA until after 2025...perhaps 1st or 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2026, and it is not even necessary to drop within 25% of the 200-WMA, even though it seems to have had happened every single cycle, so far in bitcoin's history.. and yeah sure of course, we could proclaim that "this time is different," and I am not ready to bet on "this time is different."


Don't get overly anxious, and don't call me a bear.

Sure it would be nice, but we already know that it will happen when it will happen, and at some point it seems that the bears have been holding this bad boy down too much, which may well cause some of us to speculate that the various exchanges and 3rd party custodians might not have nearly as many of the coins as they are claiming to have.

By the way, I have all of the more than 0.63 BTC that I claim to have... even though they may well be spread out in various places, as I have discussed previously in terms of trying to manage UTXOs and not have all coins in the same place.

Anyhow, the individual holders are not the ones who are likely to be fucking around with fractional reserves within terms that might not exactly be clear to us quasi-laypeople trying to figure out what is happening.. what are the obligations and who's policing them when some of them are proclaiming that "proof of reserves" is not necessary... blah blah blah.


Now you are talking, Phil... even though I still don't really consider that settling down is very likely based on how much time we have been fucking round in our current largely $85k to $112k range.. but yeah, sure something like that could end up happening.


Most likely not.

I agree with what you said and I must say that a return to below $100,000 should be viewed as a possibility and is different for each person and the strategies they have used in the past or want to decide for the future.

However, any price drop, especially a sharp price drop or correction, creates a suitable buying opportunity.

Anyway, such price reductions, in case they happen, are short-term and the general tendency of Bitcoin in the middle term, is the Bitcoin growth.

Of course, we likely realize with the latest tendencies for governments, institutions and even already rich individuals to project policies and/or practices in which they will be trying to hoard large quantities of BTC, it then becomes even way lower of an average that individual normies are even able to accumulate.. even though sure, somewhere between 0.002 BTC (200,000 satoshis) and 1 BTC (100,000,000 satoshis) does seem reasonable, even though an overwhelming majority of normies are going to have to give up on accumulating a whole BTC, since it going to be quite difficult to accumulate a whole BTC, even the guy who is able to project an investment of $200 per week for the next 10 years, he may well ONLY be able to accumulate half of a BTC, if he starts right now.  $200 worth of BTC per week would result in $104k invested over 10 years.

I am fairly confidence that the average cost per BTC is going to end up being a lot more than $104k over the next 10 years, so a guy investing $200 per week may well ONLY be able to accumulate somewhere in the ballpark of 0.4BTC (40 million satoshis at best), and sure there are ways around it to front load the investment or somehow be able to invest more than $200 per week, yet guys have to still attempt to be realistic in terms of their own budgets, and some guys have a whole hell of a lot of difficulties imagining an ability to garner up enough cash to be able to buy $200 worth of bitcoin every week for the next 10 years.

Don't get me wrong, I am repeating that guys should do what they can in term of their own cashflow and cashflow management limitations... so anyone who is trying to accumulate bitcoin with as much aggressiveness as he can right now, even if he is ONLY able to buy $10 to $50 per week, he is likely to be better off by buying and accumulating bitcoin rather than if he did not even try.


Probably not, unless you are interested in the dynamic that the BTC price might go up, or alternatively it might not go up (which you know what that means?  or do you?)

Let me start over.  This is not going well.

Within BTC prices, it could go up, or it could go down or it might go sideways.

There are a lot of folk speculating that there are good chances that the BTC price is going up.  That is why sentiment towards UPpity seems fairly strong right now.

I thought that they used to call it bitcoin fear and greed, but now they are calling it "crypto fear and greed" index.


https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

Of course, the BTC price could go down, but we have already been down, yet sure there are some big players who like to flush out as many coins as they can from retail (shake trees), and it seems to work, until it doesn't so it is not bad to see some of those shakers getting reckt when it finally happens.

Sideways is one of those kinds of things that really do not tend to happen, especially at the Upper end of the range, even though I could see several fake outs, which could later end up being characterized as a kind of sideways that ended up happening... even though they don't really happen.

I know.  I am probable not telling you anything new, so sure, just go back to sleep for a while, and perhaps something more exciting might happen at some point...

What would you consider exciting?  Supra $130k?  or sub $90k? or something else?

I know that any of us longer term bitcoiners can start to feel some senses of CCCCCiiiiiiiittttttttttteeeee..... even within price ranges that are not much greater than our previous price ranges, and I am not going to deny some senses of citedness.


I could be wrong, yet I doubt that vapourminer could fairly be characterized as a trader.. even though he likely is not opposed to selling some bitcoin as the price is going up... but yeah, there are not too many of us who seem to be looking for exact tops or trying to trade exact tops (except maybe LFC, and perhaps some of our quasi-closeted traders)... though surely there likely is still some decent selling going on on the way up. .without really trying to figure out exact ranges for the top.. . but yeah, maybe vapourminer and some others can describe if they are planning any higher level sales in this particular run that we are expecting, since some guys likely just sell some extra corn, here and there along the way.


I am not going to deny that would be interesting.  I listened to several years of Joe Rogan, until he went to Spotify, but then when he came back from Spotify, I found that I just could not listen to all of his episodes, so i just listen to some of them..and surely Saylor would be a good one, if he were to end up going on there.


That is what I would say (or am thinking).

I would not be completely surprised by such a thing, even though it seems that there have been enough of those "opportunities for dip buyers" to get in or to buy back the too many coins that they sold... and at some point, they aren't going to be able to either get in at those sub $100k prices or to buy back whatever (too many) bitcoin that they already sold.


My point in the above post relates more to claims that it is difficult to get the 200-WMA to move quickly in either direction, even though the 200-WMA ongoingly trends upwardly, and yeah, I love the stability and the sideways of the 200-WMA, and that is why I have created formulas to conceptualize bitcoin values based on the 200-WMA instead of BTC spot prices..... and so maybe I get worked up when folks try to treat spot price as if it were the same thing, and BTC spot prices are all over the fucking place on an ongoing basis, so even though BTC spot prices relate back to the 200-WMA, the 200-WMA smooths out all of that ongoing violence and shows us some ways to plan our lives around bitcoin in terms of 200-WMA and not spot prices.

But yeah of course, if we buy or sell BTC, we will be engaging in such buying/selling of our BTC in terms of BTC spot prices and not the 200-WMA, yet I still think that we can consider our valuation of our bitcoin in terms of the 200-WMA rather than spot price.

In regards to the sideways expectations of BTC spot prices, rather than the 200-WMA, I just think that sideways of BTC spot prices is not something that we can expect.. especially the way that you had been describing them largely at the top of the range.

Sure, bitcoin is going to do whatever it is going to do, and sure, it is possible that bitcoin gets tamed into some kind of a more mature and/or less volatile asset, but it just does not seem likely to be happening any time soon with ongoing new adoption and still a large ass addressable market..

Yeah, from time to time we get lulled into non-violence of BTC spot price moves, yet even if the BTC spot prices end up going up and up and up, it ends up entering into ranges of over-exuberance where the price cannot be supported any longer.

Similar things are true within current BTC price dynamics.. Yeah, maybe we can get some sideways here and there along the way, yet I would even claim that our move up from $69k to $109k between November and January was hardly sideways and then our correction down to $74k between late January and early April was hardly sideways and since early April we have come back up to $112k, which also is hardly sideways, so sure, sideways could end up happening, but I don't consider sideways to be too likely... Sideways would be a pretty decently large minority bet... so i don't see any reason to be either expecting or hoping for sideways, even though sure, it could happen... but it probably won't... by the way you initially said sideways between $119 to $123k, and then you increased your expected (or hoped for range of $120k to $132k-ish.    Sure your range for your sideways got a bit bigger, so it does increase the likelihood of the range happening to be greater when the range is higher.. yet you just seem to be living in a bit of a fantasy land when you are creating such narrow expectations (hopes) rather than going with the flow and even potentially setting yourself up as a bit more of a bitcoin HODLer rather than a trader, and sure your revised scenario could end up happening and you can say that "I told you so," but why set yourself up for disappointment to be having hopes for minority-case scenarios.

And, maybe you say that I am the one setting myself up for disappointment, yet anything that I do tends to be a hedge that it I might happen or might not.. and yeah, maybe I should revise my late 2021 numbers.. but I think that I already communicated the idea of creating such numbers, which was my main point rather than getting caught up so much in regards to what my numbers feel like at this particular moment... even though I don't completely mind going through such number assigning process.

oh.

again?

90k would be a good discount.