Ok.  From your forum registration date, I can see you have ONLY been here slightly more than a year, but you are saying some pretty dumb things if you are trying to suggest that the BTC price is high or that it is getting high, so then people are not going to buy it.

That is ridiculous, and shows a kind of superficial and narrow perspective in regards to what bitcoin is.

There are always people thinking that the bitcoin price is too high.

They thought the same thing at $1k and the same thing at $10k.

So now you are saying that $100k is some kind of an outrageous price?

Right now, we still have around 1% of the world's population who might own some bitcoin, and surely way less than 0.1% that actually have any kind of a meaningful exposure to bitcoin... so those folks who have no bitcoin or very low quantity of bitcoin are not going to have any choice but to buy bitcoin at higher prices, otherwise they remain low coiners and/or no coiners.

Yeah, it sucks, they should have had bought bitcoin earlier, but it is quite likely that bitcoin is going to get into $1 million, $10 million, $100 million and even higher prices, and if guys do not have any bitcoin, the only way to get exposure is buy buying bitcoin or buying some derivative of bitcoin and someone else buys the bitcoin.

There is surely an incentive to get started with bitcoin earlier rather than later, and even 4-10 years or further down the road, there are going to be folks stuck with the choice of whether to buy bitcoin or not, and anyone who already bought bitcoin and who had been buying bitcoin for the prior 4-10 years or more will likely have a lot of advantages over the person who will be just getting started and/or just coming to realize that maybe they should buy some bitcoin.

Whether you believe what I am saying or not, may well affect your position size and how much bitcoin you sell and/or trade along the way rather than making sure that you accumulate it.  There will be persons who start out whimpily in bitcoin and there will be people who start out more aggressively, and likely anyone who starts out in bitcoin will be better off than those who do not, even though there are no guarantees, and since there are no guarantees, each of us has to figure out our position size and if we are skeptical we will be more whimpy in our bitcoin accumulation.. it is our choice. ..

Whether in the future bitcoin is $1 million, $10 million, $100 million or even some higher price, and if we have some bitcoin we may well feel good about the way our bitcoin holdings had gone, and if someone comes up to us and asks us if they should buy bitcoin, they cannot go back to some earlier time and say that they could have bought at $117k, but they were too scared, so they did not buy any... and yeah, 4-10 years or longer, it is not likely going to be possible to buy bitcoin in the lower $100ks or even in the sub $100ks.. yet we likely still will need to tell them to get the fuck started and not to wait around and try to hope for some dip that might not happen.


Hopefully you can consider some kind of an investment timeline that is 4-10 years or longer, and just keep buying whatever bitcoin you can for at least a whole bitcoin cycle (4 years) and then see where you are at after 4 years, and surely if you are not very well off, then it could well take you 2-3 cycles before you might start to slow down in your BTC accumulation or to change your strategy away from buying regularly, persistently, consistently, ongoingly and perhaps even aggressively.  It tends to take a while to build up an investment, which is the way to go forward with bitcoin.


It seems to me that if you are a  low coiner or a no coiner, you need to just keep buying bitcoin.  You don't really have a choice, and if you conclude that we are at some kind of a top, then you are more likely screwing yourself by engaging in a waiting rather than a buying approach to bitcoin.  Newbies want to try to act like they are smart and they are ONLY going to prepare for down? That makes little sense.  If you have little to no coins, then you are not prepared for up, you are ONLY prepared for down, which does not seem like a good strategy or approach to bitcoin.


I am having difficult appreciating why you consider that Derekfunds had said anything profound, since there are all kinds of folks who have heard the word bitcoin, but they don't know what the fuck bitcoin is.  They might even think that they know what bitcoin is, but they don't and the fact that around 99% of the world is not investing in bitcoin likely means that they are going to either hear about bitcoin at some later date or they will be forced to look into bitcoin at some later date.

Sure there are some folks who might know some things about bitcoin, but they still do not act to start to buy it, since many times they think that they are too late and they will continue to think that they are too late, until at some time in the future they will realize that they have to start to buy it, even though it is 10x, 100x or some other multiple/magnitude higher in price when they first heard about it.

Even someone brand new to bitcoin right now has to figure out what to do, whether to look into bitcoin or not and/or whether to buy or not, so non-action is a choice... but the non-action does not mean that the matter is resolved, since they may well either end up dying a no coiner or have to get into bitcoin at some later date.. whether that it 2 years from now, 4 years from now, 10 years from now or some later time down the road, unless they end up dying a no coiner.. which also is going to happen to a good number of those who might not be able to identify the need to get started.


Surely many folks consider bitcoin as a trade and not as an investment, and that is part of the reason that they cannot think longer than 2-3 years.

They think that 2-3 years is investing, when it is not.

They cannot get their mind over the fact that bitcoin is 4-10 years or longer, and even 4-10 years is probably too short since the only real reason  to get out of bitcoin is for health and/or age concerns. otherwise the plan is likely better to be longer rather than shorter.


In the end, each person has to figure out for himself, and he can do whatever he likes in regards to bitcoin.  There are a lot of folks who got in and out of bitcoin and now regret because they sold way too many too soon, and then they end up as a low coiner or no coiner and they are no longer benefiting from the power of bitcoin... which is long term... and there are ways that some early folks to bitcoin could have had mostly held onto their bitcoin and they would not have had suffered from their not having had sold earlier.

Many folks still profited from their bitcoin and maybe they bought and sold and made a small fortune, but then if they sold 1,000 bitcoin in 2012 for $30 each they might be feeling bad right now even though they may have had made $30k in their sale, or if they sold 400 bitcoin in 2014 for $900 each , they made $300k, but they feel bad now.. or maybe in 2017 they sold 100 bitcoin for $15k each, and so they made over a $1 million in profits... But they feel bad now.. or in 2022 they sold 60 bitcoin for $50k, they made around $2.5 million.. and felt good at the time, but not feeling so good right now.


Sure that could be one way of using your investment, but you would be stuck getting in and out of bitcoin in 6 years, which could be problematic, since it may well be better to keep investing into bitcoin. That is for you to decide, but you are likely in a  better place and with more options 6-10 years or more down the road by having had gotten into bitcoin rather than not getting into bitcoin.

There are no guarantees in bitcoin either, so each of us has to figure out an investment size that is comfortable for our financial and psychological circumstances.


It is difficult to know what your various costs would be along the way, yet I am sure that you can plot out various scenarios, yet at the same time, I doubt that if you are investing consistently for the next 6 years (whether weekly, monthly or otherwise) that you would necessarily have an averge cost of $117k, yet sure, it is possible.

Many times folk who invest consistently for 4 years, they will end up having average costs that are similar to the 200-WMA, so if you project the 200-WMA forward, you can likely see what your average cost per bitcoin is.  I did that in my 2021 fuck you status chart, which shows that 2029 200-WMA at around $126k, yet my current updated chart that I have not published shows the 200-WMA in late 2029 as being $211k, and I cannot imagine you getting an average price per BTC less than that if you are projecting out 6 years rather than 4 years...   By the way my late 2031 chart shows the 200-WMA as $291k and historically that 200-WMA has tended to serve as a BTC bottom price.. but history does not guarantee the future.. we can merely attempt to project as well as we are able to do and perhaps having various projections of our base case scenarios and then our worser case scenarios and also our better case scenarios to help us to prepare for a variety of scenarios that could end up playing out. .. even if we already have some timeline targets and even if we might be adjusting our projections as we go in order to ongoingly update our projections with actual on the ground facts as they play out in our real life.


I am not sure if I completely agree with the approach that merely invests in bitcoin in order to achieve some other target, even though there surely can be ways that various targets can be likely achieved through bitcoin and not selling all of the bitcoin .

Surely if guys are ongoingly accumulating bitcoin, they can adjust how much they buy each month based on their income, and if their income and/or expenses vary then their discretionary income could end up going up or down, so then they can make adjustments to the amount that they put into bitcoin based on changes in their discretionary income.

They can also incorporate DCA, lump sum buying and buying on dips... so even if they start out with a strict $50 per month into bitcoin, they might realize that it is better to do $10 to $15 weekly, but then as they continue practicing buying bitcoin they might also become more focused on ways to increase their discretionary income, so they could employ various kinds of plans to accumulate more bitcoin and maybe even to try to make fun from the situation.

Even though I have frequently suggested to get started as soon as possible and figure out some balance to be able to buy bitcoin regularly, persistently, consistently, ongoingly and even aggressively if possible, guys are still responsible for their own actions and/or failures to act, so in that sense I am not giving advice, since guys are responsible for themselves, whether they act or fail to act or they fuck something up along the way by getting distracted into trying to trade or get distracted into shitcoins.  Guys sometimes have to make the mistakes that end up setting them back in order to learn from those kinds of matters, and sometimes guys get distracted and they never come back to bitcoin investing (rather than trading).. at least not so far..

Surely, historically guys who have accumulated bitcoin aggressively by mostly buying and holding have done quite well for themselves, especially the longer that they have been engaged in such practices.  I had never suggested guys sell any bitcoin, except spend and replace or maybe once they reach overaccumulation status.. which could take a long while to reach such status.. so then I suggest some form of sustainable withdrawal once guys reach overaccumulation status, which can be price-based sustainable withdrawal practices and/or time based sustainable withdrawal practices.

In the end, guys are responsible for themselves in terms of what they did or they did not do... which continues to be the case that guys can improve on the plans of others by tailoring to their situation, but they also can end up misunderstanding things and getting the various balances of investing and cashflow management wrong.

Guys have to figure out what they are going to do in regards to bitcoin starting from now rather than fantasies about what could have happened in the past, blah blah blah.  We cannot turn back the clock, so we have to figure out what to do from now and not from some set of past circumstances in which we did not act.

Whether you start with $50 per month or you figure out how to do $10-15 per week or some other ways of getting started and learning along the way, your own practices will likely end up getting tailored to your own circumstances, and even after 6 months of investing into bitcoin, you likely will figure out some ways to balance what you are doing so that you feel that you are making progress but at the same time, you are projecting out various future scenarios so that you can better identify which path you are on and any tweaks that you might make in order to attempt to account for your own 9 individual factors.


It is funny or maybe ironic how many folks royally fucked themselves by prioritizing real estate rather than bitcoin.  Sure, I know that people want to have their own place, and there are ways to consider a home as an investment, but if we go through the numbers, bitcoin has absolutely annihilated real estate in the past 5 years, 7 years, 10 years, and longer.  The longer the more obvious it should be even with the best of performing real estate pieces (with the best location etc etc), bitcoin has done way better than even the best of them..

Folks get distracted, and some of them even might build up their bitcoin portfolio to $1 million or some great price and then use their bitcoin to buy real estate... and maybe that was 70 bitcoin in 2017 that were sold for $15k.. it felt good at the time.. . .but now those 70 bitcoin are worth $8.2 million.. hard to imagine very many pieces of real estate that has done that well in the past 8 years.. including how much it had cost to hold that $1 million property for the past 8 years and the various costs to get into it, too... which likely means that the person might have ONLY been able to get a property that was then worth around $850k, and the other funds went to various closing costs..

Wow... You see, this is more like a new discovery for, how many people do really know that investing in bitcoin, consistently for the next 4-6 years or longer is not a rocket science. Many see investing in bitcoin for 2 - 3 years as mature enough and they want to take their investments to do something else with the claim that they had invested enough for so long. But from your submission, this is not actually enough as one should invest even more. I can't imagine building  a particular profile for the next 6 years consistently without holding back or slowing down my investment, even if my funds won't be able to change my standard of.living yet, it will sure definitely change my mindset towards investment on life assets for life. It will seriously instill financial discipline to the investor.

Imagine me investing 50$ per month for the next 6 years (by 2031). That's $50 x 12 x 6 = $3,600 which must have multiplied into several dollars by then, based on the worth or value of bitcoin at that time. For the purpose of this discussion, let me make a cue with the projected bitcoin estimates by 2031 as shown in these forecasts. According to this website, 1 bitcoin is estimated to be $1.063 million dollars by this time (July) in 2031. When you do the math, using a DCA approach, you will get approximately  an estimated amount of $33,174 by then (only if bitcoin hits 1.063 million dollars, for example), which is a very decent price for me to start a very good business in my country. Quite amazing! My pension is not anywhere close to that if I was a civil servant working with the ministry. Again this is outside any other lump sum which may come along the journey.

Let me.use this table to explain this estimate:

item	value
first month	July 2025
last month	July 2031
Total no. of months	73
Monthly investment	$50
total funds invested	$3650

Let me use the second table to show the estimated value in 2031 (by projection)

item	value
current 1 BTC price	117,000
total BTC accumulated	0.0312
projected BTC price in 2031	$1,063,000
estimated value in 2031	$33,000

Another advise I may like to add is before someone goes into an investment, he or she should invest with purpose, let there by a target before you go into any form of investment. For instance, one can decide to go into investment with the purpose of building a home or securing a better future for your kids or to invest the capital into a different stream of income. The moment such intention is made, the next phase will require you to set your portfolio for it, have the number of months in mind eg. 73 months, then set it's calendar and begin to tick each and every month passed. I think this will enable many people to stay consistent with their investments. Also give window for more investment, don't just be static on a $50 example, make it more flexible to increase the budget to like 100 or more but $50 should kinda be your threshold. It is possible that you will hit your target before the duration set and make extra funds for other things and in the event, bitcoin shoots below the projected target, you will be able to strike a balance. There should be more education on this especially from..experienced expertise like @JayJuanGee sir.

I understand that a guy who is accustomed to investing $10 per week for a year and who suddenly comes across $500 might not know what to do with it, yet it seems to me that the more he gets used to investing in bitcoin, he might consider bitcoin a natural place to put it, even if he might prefer to stagger the payments rather than investing it all right away.

There can be advantages in regards to putting in any lump sum right away, even though if the price goes down then there could be regret that the lump sum was invested at too high of a price.  So surely sometimes there can be some value to holding back some of the lump sum to either buy on dip or to add to the weekly DCA amount.  Guys frequently have to practice to even get used to their own building of wealth that they might not have had previously, and sometimes they might not really know what to do until experiencing it, and surely many guys make the mistake of selling too many BTC too early because they are not used to accumulating wealth... so maybe after 4-6 years or longer investing into bitcoin, some of the process starts to get easier, even if the discretionary income might not have gone up a lot in that timeframe.


I also said that it takes a long time to build your bitcoin portfolio so if you have only been buying for a 2-3 years, you might need to keep buying for another 2-3 years or more before you might make any adjustments to stop buying, or maybe to buy on dips rather than buying all of the time.

We transition through stages, and surely the more bitcoin we have, then our holdings will start to inform us if we might need to make adjustments to our bitcoin accumulation strategy.

One mistake guys make in their first 4-6 years in bitcoin is selling too much too soon, and another mistake is stopping and/or slowing down in their bitcoin accumulation through ongoing, persistent, consistent, regular and perhaps even aggressive buying. There tends to be a need to continue to accumulate, since it is quite rare for guys to be able to reach over accumulation status in one cycle or less.

I liked it when you used the word frugally, this is exactly the way we're leaving right now especially when there's no certainty to the turn of events as much as the economic activities of the country is. I can tell you with confident that bitcoin is less volatile than the economy of my country right now and this is something others can confirm, in the context that bitcoin has more value than my currency by a hundred and thousands time and even when it goes dip, it doesn't hurt a big investor from Nigeria despite the standard of living.

On the issue of the younger younger people, including teenagers and young adults, you're spot on to mention there's still time and chances for them to fail but fail forward and for them to equally open their minds to navigate swiftly around new challenges and technological advancements like the cryptocurrency world.


I enjoy the singular reason which you agree with me about DCA still remaining the best of choice for the less privileged persons. My believe is, bitcoin is not a respecter of any financial class of individuals, it should be a financial platform where everyone including the poor and the rich, the abled and the disabled, the young and the old, etc. While you the poors can still invest in Lump sum, I'm more of the opinion, for many newbies and less privileged persons, they should pay more focus on the DCA while they explore the lump sum options when it avails itself.

DCA has a leverage over the lump sum because it can help the newbies and less privileged manage their risks the more as they still build their portfolio over a period of time. My advice is when your portfolio get stronger then an individual can aim for more and even begin to plan for the lump sum. This advise should work for many interested individuals from this part of the world in my own opinion. A practical example of building your patience and confidence in investing in bitcoin.

As for the $500 example, it will interest you to know that majority of the people may not invest such amount in lump sum and for those who do (maybe by investing 50%), it will make them lazy to continue with their DCA plan or strategy afterwards. If it's monthly, a lot will declde to skip the few extra months ahead banking on the lump sum investment they did to cover it up, but that will be another way of reducing their commitment to consistently run their DCA approach. Ultimately I think what we should preach more than any should be more learning and understanding, patience and confidence.