Quote from: Biodom on Today at 02:38:05 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 02:18:52 AM

Quote from: Biodom on Today at 01:55:08 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 01:17:35 AM

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Hardly 'depressing' as 2518 days is about 6.89 years.
In order to get to 1mil from here in 2518 days you need 38%/year appreciation.
Saylor predicts 30% yearly appreciation during the next 20 years, so the first 7 years (6.89 to be exact) very well may be at 38% per year average.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/strategys-michael-saylor-says-bitcoin-will-grow-30-year-next-20-years-could-he-be-right
On July 12 2020 bitcoin was $9589, so since then it appreciated 12.25X with an average of 65% per annum (approximately).
On July 12, 2015, bitcoin was $284.65, so since then it appreciated 413.21X with an average of 83% per annum (approximately).
As you can see, there was a smaller per annum appreciation in the last 5 years vs the prior 5 (specifically, appreciation between July 12 2015 and July 12, 2020 was 102% per annum).

Therefore, 38% per annum in the next 7 years or about strikes me as quite reasonable.

I sent you an Smerit, even though I don't agree.. and I am not even sure if my level of disagreement would be bettable.

Like I said, we could go up into the 7 digits and then come back into the 6 digits, so it could take a while to determine if the bet is won.. o

Or maybe I could bet you that in the next 6.89 years or maybe even in the next 7 years, bitcoin will have had spent less than 2,518 days in 6 digits (which is presuming that it would spend a decent number of those other days, perhaps more than a few hundred in 7 digits). So then the bet would be resolved 7 years from now. I am not sure what the oracle for resolving the bet would be, if there is a reliable website or way to track.

Sorry, this is not a strongly held conviction of mine.
Some other time, perhaps.

You gave a more bearish and a less bearish scenario, and I want with your less bearish scenario to suggest a bet, and sure maybe every proposition that a guy makes does not have to be bettable, but still you presented the scenario as if it were your base case... and maybe if your not willing to stand behind it, then it is not your base case.

I know that we are not guaranteed to go up or even to touch $1million in less than 7 years, yet the fact of the matter is that none of us hardly know, and we hardly have any clue in terms of the possibility that we could hit $1million in this cycle.. and even if we don't it could happen early in the next cycle... or even if we presume that this cycle ONLY has the rest of this calendar year (at most - as you seemed to also suggest, perhaps in another of your bearish posts), if we add a whole other cycle onto that (to the extent that cycles still exist, which both of us seem to be presuming that cycles still exist), then we have 5 years to finish the remaining of this cycle and then a whole new cycle to be able to touch upon $1 million and perhaps to start to spend some time in the 7 digits, which is still 2 years shorter than your 7 year timeline in which you think that we will be spending in 6 digits.

At this time, I am starting to question the supposed reasonableness of your reason. .. not that your reasoning wasn't in jeopardy at earlier points in time from the point of view of this here cat.

Cheesy

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on Today at 05:23:46 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 12, 2025, 10:28:44 PM

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I was thinking of "editing out" your post, but then I thought I should leave it untouched, as a reference to my reply.

No problem. It is not always clear if or when to edit out responses.

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on Today at 05:23:46 AM

You know, my sell order went through, and I felt odd about it, and I may have canceled it, had I remembered it being there, but still, I also felt happy and satisfied that I got some more chunk of fiat cash for "free". Free, in the sense that I consider my Bitcoin stash as a kind of "universe's free gift". It's kind of like "kissing the frog and getting your prince", so to speak. It's the reward for recognizing the value and ingenuity hidden in the Bitcoin white paper, for reading between the lines and realizing early enough that this has the potential to change everything in the monetary system of the world. Surely, there was a risk involved in kissing the frog, as there always is (there is "no free lunch" in the universe), but it was very small, in retrospect.

Many of us have been out-sizedly rewarded in regards to our bitcoin, especially if we have been able to error on the side of accumulating and holding.

The value compounds upon itself so many times that the original investment amount pales in comparison with any slivers of fiat that might get drawn out from time to time.

I had come across another post in which there was discussion of 0.001 BTC, which is also 100k satoshis, and right now valued at about $119.16 as I type this post. For sure those quantities of bitcoin were bordering on being classified as dust in 2015-ish... since it would have had ONLY been $0.25

so yeah, to have $0.25 turn into $119.16 within 10 years is quite amazing, and I am pretty sure that many of us were considering that we were putting in some decent amounts of money, but surely money that we could afford to lose in the event that the whole thing were to go south, but at the same time, we likely considered a variety of upside possibilities that might have also included supra $100k bitcoin, but at the same time, thinking about such price rises and actually experiencing such prices in personal and concrete ways are very different sentiments.

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on Today at 05:23:46 AM

You're absolutely right, my average buy price is very low, under $2k to be more specific. As much as I despise fiat and the traditional monetary system, I know that it is (still) necessary to go through that system, in order to get things done. So, fiat is going to play a part in going from Bitcoin to realizing my dreams. I try to make that part a transitional one, hence the "...only when you must" part of my phrase above. Still, though, it's good to have a healthy chunk of fiat parked in a bank account, for low/mid-level value purchases here and there. The more Bitcoin one has, the more this makes sense, and the easier it is to achieve it. Also, many of us (myself included) are still employed, and still have a steady, healthy fiat income every month. At some point, the situation becomes self-sustaining, in that, occasional, even regular, moderately sized Bitcoin-to-fiat conversions do not affect the total fiat value of one's stash. In fact, one can keep spending their Bitcoin, and their stash fiat value can keep rising still. You can call it win-win, or fuck-you status, or whatever, but once you get there you can see things from a different perspective.

In recent times, I have been referring to that kind of a status as overaccumulation status, since as long as you are selling at a rate that is less than your BTC is appreciating, then you may well not really notice any meaningful change to your stash, yet part of the problem still has to do with any of us figuring out what our threshold level of bitcoin that we might not want to go below, so then any bitcoin that we have over that level could be referred to as overaccumulated coins.

I might as well stick with the example of a person who wants to withdraw $80k per year (and adjust 7% upwardly each year, so then right now, that person would need to have a minimum of 16.07 BTC, so the extent to which he has more than 16.07 BTC, then he is in a really great place to liberally sell those extra BTC, and so for example if the guy has 23.57 BTC, then he has 7.5 BTC extra, and so maybe he wants to spend 1 BTC, then he still would have 6.5 extra BTC, and maybe he spends his 1 BTC, and then next year, he sees that he only needs 14 BTC in order to withdraw at his same $0k per year range... so his quantity of BTC needed to maintain his target withdrawal level is going down way faster than his spend rate, which is also cushioned by the fact that he had started out in the hypothetical withdrawals with 23.57 BTC which was 7.5 BTC, extra, and perhaps the next year, even though he spent 1 BTC, his 22.57 BTC is now 8.57 BTC greater than his minimal withdrawal amount, so even his overaccumulation status is growing faster than his BTC spends.

Of course, it is not possible to outline all of the overaccumulation and withdrawal scenarios that might be applicable to any of us, since any of them would need to be tailored, yet I still consider that bitcoin is such a great asset that there are many ways, once we reach overaccumulation status to spend from our overaccumulated amount of BTC at levels that never cause our accumulated amounts to go below our threshold level, and whether our overaccumlation amounts continues to grown or not. The growth (or shrinkage or maintenance) of our overaccumulated amount is just a side-dynamic that may or may not make too much difference in the whole scheme of things.

We also know that each year, it is quite likely that the amount that any of us needs for our overaccumlated amount is ongoingly going down faster than we are likely spending from it (of course depending on our adequately reaching such status and having some extra space to work with). For example, on this same exact day 1 year ago, we would have had needed 21.74 BTC in order to be at the same $80k per year withdrawal rate threshold that today is ONLY 16.07 BTC today. .. so a 26% reduction in our required BTC threshold amount, and we likely did not withdraw even close to that level of BTC in order to maintain our $80k per year withdrawal rate... and we can even cheat and withdraw from our overaccumulated amount, to the extent that we might have had more than the threshold BTC amount.

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on Today at 05:23:46 AM

I believe that, in the end, one's actions when it comes to Bitcoin may be governed (at least partly) by psychology, inner feelings, desires and irrational thinking, rather than pure logic. LFC is waiting to sell 25% in order to buy back lower later on (I hope it doesn't bite him in the end...), others just shave off small amounts as needed to do what they want, some have purchased massively expensive things that wasted a large chunk of their stash, only to regret it later on.

Even though I have continue to argue with LFC about his intended withdrawal plan, and he had similar ideas in the past, so his past experiences seem to influence his current thinking, and he even modified his plan to have his sale amounts spread out over something like a $25k range, so he seems to have had thought through his plan, including understanding that the BTC price might continue to go up from his various sales, and so ultimately he has to be comfortable with his own choices, even though they seem like a bit much to some of us in regards to the too much too soon arena, but he seems to think otherwise, which might work out well for him, perhaps?

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on Today at 05:23:46 AM

In the other extreme, mindrust got scared of the price dropping to nearly $3k, sold his 10 BTC and got $30k, while now he would have more than $1M.

Factually, I am pretty sure he sold around $4,500 per BTC, and then he bought 1 BTC back around $6k. Yeah, it does not seem a very good outcome, for sure, and he was willing to take his chances in regards to the BTC price dropping further.

So, yeah of course, current spot price for 10 BTC is pretty good, yet even Mindrust's explanation is that he had gotten way overboard in his bitcoin investment, so maybe he did need to trim off some, and cut his portfolio down, yet surely a lot of us have difficulties considering a 90% cutting down on the portfolio size, rather than maybe a 20% to 30% cutting down that would have had still been a lot to bring him down to 7-8 BTC, but yeah, guys gotta do what they gotta do, and they end up suffer the consequences when they end up messing up.

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on Today at 05:23:46 AM

1 BTC. This is the threshold to reach as of now, in my opinion. Anyone having $120k to spare, go buy 1 BTC and store it away in a Trezor or paper wallet. Don't overthink it. Do it. Had I done the same in 2015 I would now own thousands of Bitcoin.

We need to face it that even 1BTC is quite out of reach for an overwhelming majority of normies. Yeah, sure there are folks in the USA who earn those higher levels of salaries and they may have even invested into some other investments over the years, but I still think that 1BTC is getting out of range for a lot of normies, even though surely they could aim for something like that.

Maybe more realistic might be that some guys might be able to DCA something like $30k to $50k over the next 6 months, and then perhaps similar levels over the following 6 months, and surely it can be difficult to suggest going overly aggressive during our likely upcoming bull market, which makes your idea of frontloading of the investment to make more sense, for guys who are able to do it, which I suspect might not be too many normies able to frontload invest $120k into bitcoin within a short period of time, even if it might be for their own good to do so.

By the way, $120k invested in 2015 - assuming an average buy price of around $250 would still have had ONLY gotten 480 BTC which still is a large amount to have had been able to accumulate with that amount of fiat.

I may have had mentioned previously that there was a point in late 2014 that I was considering reallocating something like 1/2 of my then 401k into bitcoin, which would have had greatly increased my coin level, but I decided not to do it, and I decided that I largely had enough bitcoin, and by 2015, with merely another 35% added to my then stash, I decided that I had more than enough bitcoin (going from 10% of my investment portfolio in BTC in late 2014 to 13.5% in bitcoin by late 2015).

Quote from: Lucius on Today at 11:13:54 AM

Quote from: AlcoHoDL on Today at 05:23:46 AM

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Interestingly, today marks 10 years since I registered on this forum and I can say that I still have some of the BTC that I bought that year, as well as some coins that I collected on faucets during those years. I don't currently have $120k lying around unused, but let's say I've accumulated enough BTC over the past 10 years that I don't need to worry about what my retirement will be, and what most of these political clowns will do today and in the future.

By the way, Trezor is not bad HW, but I would only rely on an air-gapped wallet for long-term storage.

I tend to move coins around so frequently it can be difficult to point to the same coins being owned from 10 years ago or 11.5 years ago would have had been my first coins, which ended up getting moved around.

There is good and bad in regards to moving around coins, including that we may well change some of the ways that we are holding coins.

I tend to give a bit of a pass to folks keeping a decent amount of coins on exchanges, especially in the first year, even though there are some reasonable easy to learn self-custody solutions, but still I have found some aspects of self custody to be confusing and involved and various ways that we could contribute to our own losing of coins, even though surely self-custody has a lot of powers to it, too. Powers to the person and also power to the whole bitcoin network.