Quote from: Not in Town on July 21, 2025, 05:13:08 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on July 21, 2025, 04:09:26 AM

Quote from: Not in Town on July 20, 2025, 08:43:24 PM

I'd take the bearish side on 1 year at 50:50. Is that too long a time-frame? Grin

I don't know, I think there are enough people bullish enough to find that attractive.

You are not proposing anything very controversial or even interesting, yet sure, it is possible that some member might agree to take the other side (bullish side) of such a bet.

I already explained why I was not interested in my earlier response to Biodom, which relates to our distance from the 200-WMA, which is currently right about $50,200.

I already stated that I would be willing to bet that the BTC spot price won't go below 25% above the 200-WMA until after the end of 2025, which currently 25% above the 200-WMA is right about $63k.. but I also said that I would be willing to bet that the BTC spot price does not go below $75k, even though currently $75k is 50% above the 200-WMA.

Yeah, I didn't think you would take it. You're bullish, but you know what bitcoin is capable of. Just throwing it out there. Besides, there are probably options on BitMex or some prediction market that lets you take a position like this with possibly better odds. I have no idea. I just put stuff out there and if people want to disregard it, it's fine. Grin

Honestly, I had no idea you guys even gambled on this shit.

I've just kind of been following this thread from the sidelines.

Still have to say something that is somewhat controversial if you want someone to take the opposite side of the bet, and guys are likely not going to get lured into the no more sub $100k side of the bet, unless you give odds, and you don't want to give that... so maybe guys might think 70/30 or something but you are still only saying 50/50 so it is probably not enough to get anyone excited to take the bulllish side of that.

Quote from: mladen00 on July 21, 2025, 08:48:08 AM

I remember...long time ago we all dream that BTC price will be equal or bigger than number of pages on Wall Observer BTC/USD...

Yep.. those days are long gone.. . I recall in 2017 that the price shortly ran over the page number and then it took until 2021 to surpass it again, and surely we fell back below in 2022.. .. .. so those kinds of prices do really seem to be gone, forever... even though post parity is likely going to start to become relevant at some point in the fairly near future.

Quote from: buwaytress on July 21, 2025, 09:12:31 AM

Quote from: OutOfMemory on July 21, 2025, 08:53:04 AM

However, thanks Bitcoin, because i don't have to save so much of my worthless fiat to rot on my bank account, and i'm still able to invest in rather expensive hobbies Cool

Well, expensive relative to worthless fiat? Or expensive relative to the entertainment value you derive from them? Wink

I have expensive chores... relative to the joy I gain from them (almost negative!).

It is amazing how much those of us who had done most of our bitcoin accumulating prior to 2021 were greatly saved by our having had mostly accumulated our bitcoin prior to then (if we might even use $8k-ish as our average cost per BTC).. and if we had accumulated any kind of bitcoin stash, that bitcoin has largely 15x'd in value in the past 5-ish years, even though fiat based prices might have doubled or maybe a bit more than doubled in some cases in the same time period.. Sure there are some items that might have had tripled in price during that time, but our trusty cornz have more than held their own in the whole scheme of things during the past 5-ish years (again presuming that we had mostly done a large majority of our stashing prior to 2021).

It is also not bad for guys who had not done most of their BTC stashing prior to 2021, and bitcoin is likely going to continue to save guys, even though it tends to take a while to build a bitcoin stash and it seems to me that we cannot expect to get richie in only one cycle, but in two cycles the historical results have been pretty decent for guys who have errored on the side of accumulating BTC and holding it.

Future is not guaranteed but still looking pretty good in the whole scheme of things.

Quote from: d_eddie on July 21, 2025, 03:42:36 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on July 21, 2025, 03:12:17 PM

Quote from: d_eddie on July 21, 2025, 01:22:40 PM

Post parity is what we should be looking up to.

maybe 2032 or so

Waiting for JJG to slap you properly in less than 2k words Grin

My thoughts exactly. I was going to do it.. but I cannot.. even though $1million is even more than a few percentages of possibility for this cycle, and so there should be decent chances of touching $1 million for the next cycle.. through the end of 2029-ish.

My 200-WMA projection shows $325 for the middle of 2032.. so surely we are going to need some higher bitcoin numbers to drag up the 200-WMA at a faster rate.

My current working theory is that overall the BTC price tends to spend most of its time at least 25% above the 200-WMA.... Even though from time to time the BTC price corrects back down to the 200-WMA and can also go below it for usually (but not always) short periods of time.

Do I sound too bearish? Cannot even muster up a wee-widdo batslappening.....

I think that the punchline is that these days, I feel MOAR better as bottoms kind of guy rather than a top guy.

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on July 21, 2025, 04:40:00 PM

Quote from: d_eddie on July 21, 2025, 01:22:40 PM

Post parity is what we should be looking up to.

2033 I think, maybe after the 2032 halving. We’re not going that high next cycle imo, it’ll be the one after.

I reserve the right to change my mind if we go to $250,000 or more this year.

One thing is crossing over it, and another thing is sustaining it.. yet I am still thinking that you are too bearish.. but yeah, getting over $250k this cycle would be helpful to the theory that $1 million-ish or whatever post parity happens to be at the time is in reach for the 2026 to 2029 cycle.

Quote from: Biodom on July 21, 2025, 05:03:48 PM

Quote from: Leahized on July 21, 2025, 04:53:37 PM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on July 21, 2025, 04:40:00 PM

Quote from: d_eddie on July 21, 2025, 01:22:40 PM

Post parity is what we should be looking up to.

2033 I think, maybe after the 2032 halving. We’re not going that high next cycle imo, it’ll be the one after.
I reserve the right to change my mind if we go to $250,000 or more this year.

But I can see in a Rainbow Chart, Bitcoin can reach $20m in 2035

To me this is incredible, but what does rainbow graph lie?
@BitcoinNews21M
Bitcoin is on track to reach $20 million by 2035 🚀

https://x.com/BitcoinNews21M/status/1947304462634156178

444K to 85K would feel so incredibly bad......as usual Cheesy

I am tentatively thinking that once the BTC price gets above $333k, then sub-$100k is no longer in the cards, unless we go to $333k too quickly.