We likely already have a lot of fractional reserve bitcoin, and surely there are going to be many players who try to push limits as far as they are able to without either getting caught or having the matter blow up in their face... which could be pretty costly if they cannot find some kind of a party that is large enough and willing to bail them out.

Technically, you are correct that there is no such thing as fractional reserve bitcoin when the bitcoin are being verified on chain, yet we already know that there are so many representations of bitcoin out there and they are not being verified on chain, so it can be difficult to know how much bitcoin that the various parties engaged in these practices have to back up the outstanding claims on bitcoin.   They may well put themselves in jeopardy, yet they might not get caught if they can avoid runs on the bank.


For sure, even the later entrants to bitcoin are likely to have a lot of inflation (dollar/fiat debasement) protection, yet sometimes the cushion cannot be appreciated as well within shorter timelines, including that there can be concerns about a great bitcoin correction at any time.

In recent times, I have been inclined to suggest that when a guy regularly stack sats for 4 years, then he is likely going to approach an average cost per BTC that is right around the 200-WMA... and the BTC spot price tends to be at least 25% greater than the 200-WMA, and right now it is 134% higher.  Surely there can be some coins that have cheaper cost, yet the longer that a person is into bitcoin after 4 years, then the more likely that the value has been compounding upon itself.. so surely even guys with average coin costs that are less than $20k  are feeling quite comfortable right now. .even if they might still be building their bitcoin holdings.

Regarding your sale that predated the 2021 price, it is good for you that you were able to buy some of them back, and frequently guys here complain about a couple kinds of common problems 1) selling too many bitcoin too soon and 2) failing/refusing to stack enough cornz in earlier times.  It is not always easy to act to continue to buy and/or to figure out when you have enough or more than enough.

Managing coins when you have enough and/or more than enough is an easier problem (better problem to have), but guys screw up that one too with a similar problem of selling too many coins too soon, yet also from my perspective another mistake is that many guys valuate their BTC stashes based on top prices rather than bottom prices.


Likely you need to worry about your own stack rather than being worried about various future sales of bitcoin that might or might not happen.

Have you been stacking bitcoin?    If so, do you have enough or more than enough bitcoin?  if you answer no to either of those  questions then it seems that you need to keep stacking... through buying... you don't stack bitcoin through selling, contrary to the beliefs of some ill-informed folks who also might sometimes go by the name, "trader."


That seems like too much too soon, yet $200k within a couple weeks or a month seems reasonable, even though it will also  seem like a lot of price moves at once, even though it is merely a 66% price increase from here... which sometimes can end up playing out very quick, even though 24 hours still seems too short.


I would say that we don't know where it is going, but we can come up with some reasonable inferences regarding all that we know, and chart of historical performance (whether spot price and/or the 200-WMA, their relation to one another or other price dynamics charts) are only parts of the way to get some information to formulate reasonable price projection ranges.. that relate to time and price and might ballparkedly get it right or be directionally correct, yet we cannot know the future, even though the future is not random... including even in bitcoin if we go back 5 or 10 years or some other quantity of years. 

Some guys ended up being more correct than others by investing into bitcoin, but even the ones who ended up being more correct (and even as more importantly reflected in their actions) still did necessarily know or understand the then future beyond merely assessing of some probabilities regarding various scenarios and some scenarios more correct than others..and even with the passage of time, their believes could be confirmed or denied by subsequent folding out of events..