Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Your graph reminds me of this one:
Conclusion are not overly different, but a good parameter to keep in mind.
I cannot recall ever thinking about it like that... right now we have the 200-WMA at $51k and we have the previous ATH at $69k, and the 200-WMA is moving up around $50 per day, yet the rate per day is likely to continue to increase beyond $50 per day, so there is still room for the 200-WMA to reach that level.. we still have another $18k to go.
Which would translate into (69k$ - 51k$) / 50 $/day = 360 days, aka one year if the 200-WMA doesn't speed up significantly - which it could, but probably just a bit.Conclusion are not overly different, but a good parameter to keep in mind.
I cannot recall ever thinking about it like that... right now we have the 200-WMA at $51k and we have the previous ATH at $69k, and the 200-WMA is moving up around $50 per day, yet the rate per day is likely to continue to increase beyond $50 per day, so there is still room for the 200-WMA to reach that level.. we still have another $18k to go.
As you mentioned, it can happened if we start ripping up (and we should
), but not if we would be on a current steady projection.Yep.. .I consider my projection to be an attempt to figure out what is the most likely base case, and surely my projection has a built in assumption of BTC prices having some decent amount of upward tear that contributes to the 200-WMA moving up faster than its current rate of moving up, and for sure, my projection might not end up playing out, even though I consider it to be a base case, and even if the crossing over of the $69k ends up happening a month or two sooner or a few months later, it does not hurt to attempt to project it out, and surely I don't proclaim to be any kind of future sorcerer, but instead trying to assign values based on what I consider scenarios that have the higher chances of playing out... which yeah, if we add up all of the scenarios maybe my base case might still only end up having 30% to 40% odds, even though I still consider my base case to be the more likely of scenarios within my own opinion frame-work (for whatever that is worth), given the various alternative scenarios that would be contending to within the realm of possibilities to play out.
[edited out]
Sure, no problem. Here is the full table, formatted in BBCode table form.
[table that does not show - due to INVALID BBCODE: loop, probably unclosed tags]
Sure, no problem. Here is the full table, formatted in BBCode table form.
[table that does not show - due to INVALID BBCODE: loop, probably unclosed tags]
There may we ways that the contents of the table will show if some of the data is removed (like removing 5 years at a time until it finally shows up?).. I will not try to make any changes on my end, and I will leave it to you to figure out, for now..
I built the full table, but the forum does not like it. It says it exceeds the maximum number of characters: 64,000 characters. The entire table in BBCode format is ~58000 characters. If you add the CR+LF characters of the ~3300 lines it takes, that should just about exceed the limit...
Let me do some clever reformatting... Be back soon.
Let me do some clever reformatting... Be back soon.
O.k. Sure. See what you can do to be able to publish the whole thing.. otherwise, if it does not cover so many dates, that might work too.. such as cutting 5, 10, 20, 30, 50 years off of the end of it.
[edited out]
Winter is not coming back sounds wishy washy...people theorized that the world of GOT is (if we are suspending the disbelief) on a long elliptical orbit or something like that or even some "moderate two star situation"...still better than the Trisolaran world of unstable eras of Three body problem epic.To me, it sounds like an over promise, under deliver of something that is not within anyone's ability to deliver... and so yeah the continuation of cycles seems the more probable scenario.
That said...my prediction would be that if we are to have a supercycle, the tension in the system would be so high that it would be followed by at least a full cycle long Depression.
Imho, the regular cycle bear makes it smoother, overall, paradoxically.
Imho, the regular cycle bear makes it smoother, overall, paradoxically.
That is another way of saying that ongoing cycles seem more likely, at least for the time being, even if there might be some periods in which BTC price dynamics might seem to be deviating from its historical cycle patterns.