Quote from: paxmao on August 03, 2025, 10:14:11 PM

Ok people, get you cristal ball. I am building a sensitivity model on different things that affect how much wealth can I build over the next 10 years or so. One of the factors I need to populate my model with is the "r" or yearly rate of return of bitcoin in 5 cases, from "catastrophic" to "God came to dinner" or if you prefer "1 = very bad to 5 - Very good".

I am aware that this is not a question that has just an answer, but I would like to ask the community, what range would you say is reasonable for this purpose. e.g. from case 1: -10% anual return to 5: 50% anual return (just as example, not what I am using now).

What range would you use and why?

I’d split it something like this, based on historical volatility and where I think we’re heading:

Catastrophic: –20% p.a. (big ban or hack)

Bearish: 0% p.a. (sideways, low interest)

Neutral: +20% p.a. (steady adoption)

Bullish: +50% p.a. (ETF flows + institutions)

“God Mode”: +100% p.a. (massive macro push)

I temper early triple-digit returns since Bitcoin’s maturing, but 20–50% feels reasonable long-term. I plan by DCA’ing via MoonPay (straight to my wallet) and stress-test cash flows against these buckets.

What buckets are you using?