Quote from: paxmao on August 16, 2025, 10:35:53 PM

Oh... so many quesions to answer , by everyone Cheesy

^^^^

All this subject to finding what really comes out of this meeting... or whatever it is but...

As usual, your interpretation is.. what it is. Of course Putin is happy with what he got from Trump. I am myself surprised about how little Trump has learned about Ruzzian diplomacy despite the many sessions he has now gone through. However...

But it is not unexpected. Putin will "declare victory" in any outcome whatsoever and anyway it does not look like anyone will question. However, that is very different from victory as such.

Firstly, I think Putin will have to explain (or not explain anyway) why he has emptied the soviet arsenal of war to take the Donbas. I do understand waging a war for a land bridge to Crimea, but all these years for destroyed villages and a region that is mostly underdeveloped? Economically stupid.

Or, if you choose to think about it as creating a "buffer", well that is something, but also only to find out that Ukraine and many other nations have anyway drones and missiles that have much much longer range.

Quote from: DaRude on August 16, 2025, 01:10:37 AM

[...]
You'll see soon enough, looks like no NATO for Ukraine, Donbas is Russian fully and Zaporizhzhia and Kherson get frozen at the front lines. So pretty much what Russia has been asking for from the start in all negotiations minus Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Might be a trap for Zelenskiy if he doesn't accept and somehow manages to sell it to Ukrainians.

[...]

Oh, so that is what Ruzzia has been "asking" since the begining? I see. So let's recap:

- Objective: Demilitarise, "de-nazify" and all that - translation: Install a pro-Ruzzian government in Ukraine... FAILED.
- Objective, replacing the former: Impose impossible conditions for Ukraine, so that it eventually becomes untenable.... FAILED.
- Objective, replacing those two: Take 4 regions of Ukraine. FAILED.
- Objective, replacing all the former: Take the Donbas. MAYBE?

The terms and conditions PROPOSED are to be seen, so all this is "with due caution". Ukraine may not accept to give territory just like that.

That is a short summary, perhaps too short and simplistic, but it certainly helps to understand what has been the real power of Ruzzia when actually put into practice, agains an extremely small version of what a war actually could be. It all points to what anyone in the future will classify as a minor "victory" or an "indecisive" closure. The economic damage, the militarisation of Ukraine, the international image of Ruzzia ridiculed by a relative small nation.... Yep sure, declare whatever (IF it happens).

Re Zelensky... again, depending on and if any of that actually happens, but he is probably going to be a big name in Ukraine's history. Putin will be a footnote in history - another Ruzzian gangster.

My guess is that Europe has not been left as out of the deal as it looks, else this may actually not end. There is one key takeaway for Europe from the current state of affairs with the US: EU cannot rely anymore on the US. What this means for Ruzzia, well I have quite a good idea of what it means, but I want to wait for the next few weeks.

What the heck... I think Ukraine is going to be armed to the teeth by Europe, and who cares about NATO if the US people choose guys like Trump, it is better to be out, grow the nuclear arsenal, grow the strategic capabilities and finish the development of the air defence equivalent of Patriots - which is already an ongoing programme.

Ruzzia is the one "European" country which has learned nothing from WW II.

BTW: It seems that Ukraine has encircled around 350 Ruzzis near Prokosk.

Sure, just as Zelenskiy must "declare victory" in any outcome whatsoever, and Trump and EU must all "declare victory" in any outcome whatsoever. So everyone must claim to be a winner! For Putin, no NATO in Ukraine, return of Russian culture, language, books, religion etc.. in Ukraine, 5 new territories I believe would be an easy sell. Plus it sets a precedence, do you think Georgia or another buffer state would accept Nuland's cookies now seeing how much Ukrainians had to pay for those cookies in blood and territory? Also, don't forget the agreements between US and Russia are not only shortsighted to stop the immediate guns from firing, like I've been saying big game is played for spheres of influence, and voters in Odesa and Kharkiv will be the most problematic and become huge liability for current regime in Ukraine.

Demilitarise - of course vague from the start on purpose, but if Ukraine will become a neutral state and not under any military alliance like NATO, I'd argue that this point was achieved.
de-nazify - i believe the most aggressive nazi's that wanted to fight Russia the most, did so first and are no longer with us. Azov one of the most radical groups with literal Black Sun in it's logo is now just a shell of itself and was integrated into official Ukrainian army and removed the Black Sun. After the guns are silenced it be hard for wounded nazi's to get new recruits and those that are not wounded would be a laughed at as they retreated from Mariupol and left most of their comrades there and then retreated from all of Donbas. It's hard to sell yourself when you retreated. Plus with Russian culture and language the victory day and Ukrainian role in defeating Nazi's would also come back to the masses, and Bandera and right sector would be tabooed.
We're yet to see what will happen to the Ukrainian regime once guns go silent. This would be the next step, and it's impossible that it wasn't part of the agreements discussed by Putin and Trump
Russia was only asking for Donbas (2 regions) before this all started, plus I'm sure Russia will publish US's written response to its security demands that it received in January 2022 before this all started.
Not taking Zaporizhzhia and Kherson (cities) would be a huge minus for Putin, but if Putin gets everything else i believe Russians will be able to overlook it

Of course i do not have any insights on the terms of the actual proposal. But if in it Putin didn't get those things, like if Russia had to hand over Kherson Oblast to Ukraine, or Ukraine was allowed to join NATO, or Russian language didn't return to Ukraine, then selling it as a win for Putin would be much more problematic.

If Ukraine won't be neutral and is allowed to be armed to the teeth including nuclear arsenal then i will concede that it will be a loss for Russia.

But i think you're doing a great job prepping the ground and claiming this as not a win for Russia. If Russia gets all those things i talked about and you can somehow sell it as not a win for Russia, then i'm all for it.