Quote from: paxmao on August 18, 2025, 11:48:19 PM

Quote from: DaRude on August 18, 2025, 03:13:01 PM

Quote from: paxmao on August 17, 2025, 03:02:28 PM

Quote from: DaRude on August 17, 2025, 04:50:06 AM

Quote from: paxmao on August 16, 2025, 10:35:53 PM

Oh... so many quesions to answer , by everyone Cheesy

^^^^

Sure, just as Zelenskiy must "declare victory" in any outcome whatsoever, and Trump and EU must all "declare victory" in any outcome whatsoever. So everyone must claim to be a winner! For Putin, no NATO in Ukraine, return of Russian culture, language, books, religion etc.. in Ukraine, 5 new territories I believe would be an easy sell. Plus it sets a precedence, do you think Georgia or another buffer state would accept Nuland's cookies now seeing how much Ukrainians had to pay for those cookies in blood and territory? Also, don't forget the agreements between US and Russia are not only shortsighted to stop the immediate guns from firing, like I've been saying big game is played for spheres of influence, and voters in Odesa and Kharkiv will be the most problematic and become huge liability for current regime in Ukraine.

Demilitarise - of course vague from the start on purpose, but if Ukraine will become a neutral state and not under any military alliance like NATO, I'd argue that this point was achieved.
de-nazify - i believe the most aggressive nazi's that wanted to fight Russia the most, did so first and are no longer with us. Azov one of the most radical groups with literal Black Sun in it's logo is now just a shell of itself and was integrated into official Ukrainian army and removed the Black Sun. After the guns are silenced it be hard for wounded nazi's to get new recruits and those that are not wounded would be a laughed at as they retreated from Mariupol and left most of their comrades there and then retreated from all of Donbas. It's hard to sell yourself when you retreated. Plus with Russian culture and language the victory day and Ukrainian role in defeating Nazi's would also come back to the masses, and Bandera and right sector would be tabooed.
We're yet to see what will happen to the Ukrainian regime once guns go silent. This would be the next step, and it's impossible that it wasn't part of the agreements discussed by Putin and Trump
Russia was only asking for Donbas (2 regions) before this all started, plus I'm sure Russia will publish US's written response to its security demands that it received in January 2022 before this all started.
Not taking Zaporizhzhia and Kherson (cities) would be a huge minus for Putin, but if Putin gets everything else i believe Russians will be able to overlook it

Of course i do not have any insights on the terms of the actual proposal. But if in it Putin didn't get those things, like if Russia had to hand over Kherson Oblast to Ukraine, or Ukraine was allowed to join NATO, or Russian language didn't return to Ukraine, then selling it as a win for Putin would be much more problematic.

If Ukraine won't be neutral and is allowed to be armed to the teeth including nuclear arsenal then i will concede that it will be a loss for Russia.

But i think you're doing a great job prepping the ground and claiming this as not a win for Russia. If Russia gets all those things i talked about and you can somehow sell it as not a win for Russia, then i'm all for it.

I do not think that Zelensky has to announce a victory. Remember, he is actually an elected president. I doubt very much he wants to stay in power (I would not).

Return of Ruzzian culture... I do not see how that is going to happen. Ruzzia now is hated - as you would imagine.

New territories (5??), maybe. But you have to ask what did you exchange for them and how long will you be able to hold them.

No NATO... well, formally that may or may not be the case, but after this war, Ukraine will be permanently in war footing. No more "surprises" and if Ruzzia wants to try again, it will find something completely different. I think Putin and the future gangsters of Ruzzia understand the real cost of invading.

But again, all this may or may not be. I do not picture Zelensky giving territory for free and I do not picture Europe taking just any deal no matter how bad. After all, US is no longer a trusted ally, so if there needs to be confrontation, there will be confrontation.

The Ukrainian elected president's term ended in March 2024.

Not according to Ukranian constitution, but as usual you miss the point. Zelensky is not a problem, he will most likely not want to be president.

But be careful with what you wish for.

Quote from: DaRude on August 18, 2025, 03:13:01 PM

If Russian language and religion is not returned to Ukraine then it won't be a win for Russia.

Religion is not a problem. Having a church that is acting as an spionage service is. If it is not a win.. who cares.

Quote from: DaRude on August 18, 2025, 03:13:01 PM

Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia. As I've been saying multiple times, it's not about the land (Russia has plenty) and it's not even about Ukraine, but about spheres of influence and Russia's position in the world order.

I guess that Ruzzia has demonstrated then that it cannot keep such "sphere" nor a piramid, nor anything frankly.

Quote from: DaRude on August 18, 2025, 03:13:01 PM

EU needs Russia's resources,

"Need" is relative term. Europe needs to be Europe and trading resources for sovereignty... I do not see it. Perhaps we are where we are because Merkel did trust Ruzzia.

Quote from: DaRude on August 18, 2025, 03:13:01 PM

if Russia comes out independent out of this then it gets to decide who in EU gets it's resources and on what terms.

A deal needs a buyer and a seller. Ruzzia will have to figure out who can PAY for such resources.

Quote from: DaRude on August 18, 2025, 03:13:01 PM

At the very least I can imagine things like factories/manufacturing closing in Germany and opening up in Hungary or getting outsourced out of EU

That is because you do not know why factories are in Germany and you have a simplistic view of how industry works. BTW, your ignorance also extends to how the EU works. There is no internal border. Something that gets to Bulgary is in the EU. Ruzzia cannot choose just "one country" in a common market. I hope your hopes were not placed on that idea. Nor on the idea of industrial relocation to Bulgary (I am laugingh my but out).

Quote from: DaRude on August 18, 2025, 03:13:01 PM

completely. Every time you take a strong position, there must be consequences if the outcome is not in your favor. Russia has resources, Europe needs resources, there's no way around that. They can purchase "freedom" gas/oil from US but only temporary as it's just simply not sustainable.

Unfortunately, the moment Ruzzia starts talking nukes and pressing Europe, "freedom oil" is the only oil. Again, go sell to China and good luck with the price.

Quote from: DaRude on August 18, 2025, 03:13:01 PM

But Trump never said that he's going to make Europe great.

Pretty much the opposite, agreed.

Quote from: DaRude on August 18, 2025, 03:13:01 PM

Without Ukraine agreeing to stay neutral this will not end.

Then it does not end. Again, the "spehere" has poped, it is just a question of when Ruzzia will see it. It will take time of course, it is a hard pill to swallow.

What is the problem? I do not see any problem seeing Ruzzia loose one refinery a day, or an oil tanker, or more strategic bombers, or more long range radars...

Quote from: DaRude on August 18, 2025, 03:13:01 PM

Plus being on war footing is very expensive, directly and indirectly. Who will pay for that,

That is a very good question. The USSR did not find the answer to it and blew, maybe Putin and the next gangsters do, but weapons races are more expensive than car races.

Quote from: DaRude on August 18, 2025, 03:13:01 PM

and what will happen to whatever population Ukraine still has left? Plus once martial's law is lifted people will get to decide whether they want to build factories for guns or butter.

What an argument. I do not need to answer that.

Quote from: DaRude on August 18, 2025, 03:13:01 PM

It appears Ursula/EU is pushing Zelenskyy to fall into Trump's trap.

That is not true. Europe wants guarantees for Ukraine, because that is pretty much equivalent of having guarantees for Europe. That is the whole point of supporting Ukraine - achieve security in Europe.

I guess the best guarantee is for Ukraine to have a nuclear programe of its own? Missiles 500 km from Moscow?

Quote from: DaRude on August 18, 2025, 03:13:01 PM

If Zelenskyy doesn't accept Trump's terms today, Ukraine will just loose more people and more territory, then it will be impossible for Z to accept peace on even worse terms. The only possible outcomes if Z doesn't accept agreement today, will be either full capitulation of Ukraine or collapse of Russia, and probability is obviously not in Ukraine's favor

Well, that may or may not happen. At the current pace, Ruzzia would need years to achieve even the most modest goals, while loosing troops, money, irreplaceable assets, refineries and, if secondary sanctions like to ones applied to India spread... 50% of buyers.

Yes according to Ukrainian constitution Zelenskiy's term ended on March 2024. You have to do some serious mental gymnastics and make wild assumptions to interpret it otherwise. Sure Zaluzhnyi can become a president and it might be better for Russia to keep Zelenskiy, but that's besides the point that Ukrainian constitution is clear about presidential term, and unlike Ukrainian parliament it does NOT extend presidential term during martial's law.

Religion is not a problem, religion that we don't control and doesn't serve our purposes is. Cheesy

classic.

Russia demonstrated that encroachments on it's remaining sphere of influence is an existential threat for Russia. Everyone is well aware of this, and this is exactly the root cause of this whole thing. West tried to go for the final kill but got pushed back. 2013 Yanukovych is in power in Ukraine and no one in Europe cares or blinks an eye, now all major EU leaders are a cheerleader team for Ukraine, suddenly saying how Ukraine is critical to Europe.

Quote from: https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/ukraine-how-merkel-prevented-ukraine-s-nato-membership-a-der-spiegel-reconstruction-a-c7f03472-2a21-4e4e-b905-8e45f1fad542

Secretary of State Rice, Merkel's security adviser Heusgen and others stood at a bar table. Russia by itself is just one country, the American argued, according to participants, whereas Russia plus Ukraine and Belarus is an empire. She stressed that such an empire, once established, would once again seek to dominate Europe, and that the Kremlin would again pursue an aggressive foreign policy.

Europe just doesn't have the resources to sustain itself or to manufacture products for export. So it needs to import resources, and it needs to import resources at such a prices that would keep the final product competitive on the global market. Europe needs to either outsource all of it's manufacturing to regions with cheaper resources and transition to providing services or it needs the leverage of Russian resources. Subsidizing manufacturing to work on American freedom gas is just not sustainable long term.

Merkel was the only one that managed to keep everything together. When she resigned AfD was at 11%, now AfD is at 24% and it's inevitable that Merz will only continue dropping. This is the real existential thread for Germany and Europe, what genius figured that it's worth risking this over Ukraine is beyond me, but then again once you become a puppet and puppeteer decides to take care of himself first you won't have an option. Germany is now screwed, and if they try to outlaw a party that every 4th person supports, it'll get even worse very fast.

Concept of maximizing short term profit is secondary to long term national interests for independent countries. Even new companies realized this and are operating in red for many years and only turn profit once they monopolize the market and consumer has little choice. Everyone realizes that there are no free cookies.

Yes if factories move from Germany to Hungary they're still in EU, clearly it's a net negative for Germany and positive for Hungary, but a zero net for EU.
The HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly lower to 49.1 in July 2025 from a preliminary of 49.2 and compared to 49 in June, continuing to point to a deterioration in manufacturing business conditions. anything bellow 50 is a contraction, meaning worse off than before. And that's the power house of Europe
Mississippi, the poorest state in the United States, is close to surpassing Europe's largest economy Germany's GDP per capita.
Are you not aware that Russia negotiated terms of oil/gas sales individually with each country and not with EU as a whole? And that's another reason why EU leaders went to Washington. Once sanctions are lifted guess what happens when both Orban and Merz go back to negotiate the terms on Russian resources for their factories.

China cares about Russian price of oil much less than EU does. Meaning both prioritize their long term interests over short term "sale", but China has a much longer horizon. Only now Russia will get an option, and EU will loose the leverage of being the largest buyer.

If Ukraine won't be neutral and won't have limits on the size of its army it will indeed be a very hard, if not impossible, pill for Russia to swallow.

Once again with claims that guarantees of NATO's article 5 suddenly mean nothing for Europe and somehow now suddenly everything depends on Ukraine which no one cared about in 2013. Russia will collapse before it lets Ukraine get nuclear weapons (while not being in Russia's sphere).

War has been going for 3.5yrs are you saying Russia can't keep this up for just 12 more months to achieve it's goals on a battlefield? And somehow Ukraine and EU know this and that's why they're talking about just giving remaining Donbas territories to Russia for free? Right, makes sense

Edit: Wondering why we aren't hearing much from Boris Johnson? Did all Ukrainian border guards receive his picture to make sure to not let him into the country, so he won't be able to torpedo another agreement?