Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 03:52:48 PM

Quote from: franky1 on Today at 05:02:04 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 02:05:46 AM

Quote from: kanftka on August 19, 2025, 05:47:26 PM

Quote from: EL MOHA on August 19, 2025, 04:16:34 PM

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What I have noticed with new investors is that a lot of them do not actually have a problem with strategy, their real problem is discipline. You can tell someone to DCA, but if they don’t stick to whatever plan they chose, it will all falls apart…
That is why I think DCAing works so well, not because it is the perfect entry method, but because it forces you into a habit.. You do not need to think too much, you just buy on schedule… And once you build that habit, the side effect is you are less emotional about price moves.. Whether it goes up, down, or sideways, you are still adding more orders and accumulating.. In the long run, that mindset will pay off way more than trying to be the hero who always buys the bottom…

The buying the dip hero is an imaginary one that is fantasized in the heads of people who try to act like they are smart and/or smarter than the guy who just buys blindly in a regular, consistent, persistent, ongoing and perhaps even aggressive way.

obviously JJG's profit strategy is not working, just look how he is trying to get others to FOMO buy the high blindly and aggressively, just for him to have opportunity to profit more

You are delusional franky1. Normies newbies to bitcoin are likely to be more advantaged by getting started in bitcoin as soon as possible rather than waiting... which includes low coiners who may need to keep buying for a cycle or two before getting distracted by price, or disadvantaging themselves by failing/refusing to ongoingly buy.

Sure newbie bitcoiners and low coiners can figure out the details of their bitcoin accumulation strategies in terms of the extent to which they buy right away with funds that they have or if they defer by time (DCA) or defer by price (buy on dips).. many times they are going to need to just keep buying.

I have been saying similar things to people since around late 2014.. even though I first got into bitcoin in late 2013.. and surely there have been ups and downs through the years, yet ongoingly anyone who got started sooner rather than later has been advantaged over the guys who had waited or did not get started or continue a bitcoin buying strategy..

Your buy low, sell high bullshit seems like a pretty major distraction, and even you should realize by now that bitcoin is likely a better investment rather than fucking around trading.. so hopefully if people are accumulating bitcoin for a period of 4-10 years or longer, then by the time that they get tot the point that they might be selling, they will be mostly grateful if they had been accumulating early rather than later. Sure there are no guarantees, but it seems that bitcoin is at least a 4 year play, and personally I would consider that anyone getting out of bitcoin in a 4-10 year timeline would be doing so based on age and/or health consideration.. .. and otherwise people likely would be trying to mostly stay in bitcoin longer than 10 years.

At the same time, if a person keeps accumulating bitcoin through buying then at some point they might reach a place in which they have enough or more than enough bitcoin.. .. so then at that point they might consider that they are able to sell bitcoin in sustainable kinds of ways, whether price based and/or time based.

Guys can get to overaccumation status faster by front loading their bitcoin investment, yet there still likely will be a bit of a time factor that might contribute to their wanting their bitcoin to ride for a whole cycle or two, even if they might have had front loaded their investment.

I really doubt that selling helps guys to accumulate more bitcoin, since selling with a purpose of buying back cheaper is a kind of gambling.. so guys likely have better chances to focus on accumulating through buying until they get to overaccumulation status rather than trying to trade or even overly engaging in waiting for the BTC price to go down, when it might not.

Quote from: franky1 on Today at 05:02:04 AM

where as i can sell at any price now and profit because i have always bought the dips and held during the highs, which has meant my costs are lower, so when the price is high, its always in profit

Since you have been in bitcoin since 2012, you could have bought at any time prior to July 2025 and you would have had been in profits now. You could have also bought at any all time high price and still would have been in profits now. So your bragging about your ability to sell now (in the $113k region) and to be in profits is not really saying anything great about whatever strategy that you have been employing through the past 13-ish years.

Quote from: franky1 on Today at 05:02:04 AM

you should always avoid buying on the day of a new high. and instead buy the dip, a day, week later. and be more aggressive with your buys the lower the dip gets

One of the most important things in bitcoin is to figure out your budget and how much you are able to dedicate towards buying bitcoin. If you have a regular income and you are ONLY able to buy $100 per week or $10 per week or some other amount, then you may well be better off to just figure out that amount and buy regularly.

If you have a lump sum amount then you have options to 1) buy right away, 2) DCA and/or 3) buy on dips. You can structure all three into your lump sum amount, yet it still depends on how much you have as compared with your regular income, since presumptively if you have a regular income then you would be able to DCA with your regular income which might affect how you might deal with your lump sum. There is no one best strategy as franky1 is describing, especially if you have not figured out your own budget situation and perhaps also looked at various aspects of your personal factors.

If you are a guy in his mid 30s and you have an income of something like $30k per year, and you had been engaging in traditional investing for 10 years, then maybe you had already invested up to the same amount of your income and perhaps that traditional investment might have had gained in value to be around double the amount that you put in. Perhaps.. So then you would have $60k in your investment portfolio at the time that you come to bitcoin.

You would still be faced with a choice about how to deal with that other investment, even if you had come to conclude that you want to invest into bitcoin, and if you were to decide to divert $15k into bitcoin (that is 1/4 of your traditional investment), then surely you have options regarding how to deal with that lump sum and the extent to which it might affect your regular DCA amount, that might be $100 per week.

Maybe franky1 is suggesting to wait with those amounts of funds that you have available and to be strategic about your investment into bitcoin? And, sure the choice is up to you in regards to both the lump sum amount that you have available and the $100 per week that you have coming in and coming available. You could get started and start to strategically buy with portions of that, or you could employ waiting tactics... The choice is yours.

Let's say that you are absolutely new to bitcoin, and you know that you get bonuses about 2-3 times per year that tend to be between $500 and $3,000 depending on how well your company is doing in its business and/or some other reasons that you sometimes might get extra cashflow coming in. You already know that these things have historically been happening in your life, so you could anticipate that extra amounts could be budgeted towards bitcoin too, once they come in.. So you could ultimately formulate some kind of a plan regarding how you want to invest into bitcoin in the next 6 months in terms of how much money that you have available and your anticipated cashflows. You can think about the extent to which you might want to front load your bitcoin investment or if you want to keep some money available for buying on dips to the extent that you can figure out bitcoin's price direction in the coming 6 months and/or the extent to which you are going to want to wait.

Now if your investment timeline is 10 years or more, since maybe you are anticipating that even if you take money out of your already existing investments then you still might want to consider your goals in relation to those other investments.. if you consider to grow them or maybe you decide to divert your future investments to bitcoin so you want to grow your bitcoin investment to be equal to or greater than your already existing investments.. which may or may not be cheating to take money from your other investments, rather than just having new money go into bitcoin... So maybe you expect that if you leave your $60k in your traditional investments, and then you start to grow your bitcoin investment from your $100 per week and use any bonuses that you might have received.. Maybe the hypothetical is that you already had received a $3k bonus, so that was what triggered you to start to consider buying into bitcoin in order to hedge against your traditional investment portfolio.

I doubt that "what to do" is so straight-forward as franky1 is suggesting it to be, including any average newbie is going to have very many clues about what is a rip and/or what is a dip and whether it matters to buy at ATHs or otherwise since we have no way of knowing that the BTC price is going to correct even if it reaches new ATHs during the weeks that we are buying. It hardly makes any sense to employ waiting strategies for someone who already has decided that he wants to get started building his bitcoin investment. Historically there have been all kinds of guys who employed waiting strategies and that has not worked out so great for them.

Quote from: franky1 on Today at 05:02:04 AM

bitcoin has built in cycles. so dont be blind, dont avoid learning about bitcoin, dont just be a NPC bot buying constantly without research

You want guys to research bitcoin before getting started buying it? Can we presume what they know or don't know from the start? Many normies do not know much about bitcoin, yet if they start to invest $100 per week, they can study bitcoin as they go and they can potentially decide if they might want to divert funds from other areas, besides the investment money that they have coming into them through their weekly income.

Quote from: franky1 on Today at 05:02:04 AM

many trad-fi naive traders usually get scared when they see a stock/share price dip. usually when they see a dip they are fooled into wanting to sell their holdings to avoid losses.. but thats dumb.. in bitcoin the best advise is to sell the high, buy the low..

Bad idea to presume that normies coming in know how to trade or that they should come to bitcoin with trading as their approach. Sure, there are going to be some folks who are already inclined towards trading, so we cannot really stop them from wanting to trade, even though maybe it would be better to get them out of a trading mentality when it comes to bitcoin.

Quote from: franky1 on Today at 05:02:04 AM

..but JJG wants naive traders to blindly buy the high and be aggressive about it(facepalm), be blind and not learn about bitcoin economic cycles, thus not be confident about when markets turn

I am talking about investing, not trading. I am not going to presume newbies are traders, even though guys get lured into trading (gambling) rather than investing. I personally don't consider bitcoin to be a good thing to trade since it is one of the best, if not the best, place to put time, energy and value.. and don't be fucking around with trying to trade (gamble with) it.

My suggesting that guys should invest as aggressive as they are able to invest without overdoing it. Guys have to figure out what their limits are within their budget including making sure that they have good cashflow management and back up funds that are sufficient and adequate. Yet at the same time if someone is a beginner, then maybe all he can do to start is buy $100 per week, and maybe he might want to start at $35 per week until he gets more comfortable with bitcoin and moves his investment amount up to $100 per week.

Quote from: franky1 on Today at 05:02:04 AM

JJG has a bad strategy. hence why he needs others to be silly to bail out his position and end up passing the crap onto others(facepalm)

You don't really believe that I need others to bail me out? I generally suggest guys come to bitcoin with a 4-10 year or longer timeline and that they build their bitcoin holdings to a point of overaccumulation. Once they get to overaccumulation then they can engage in price based and/or time-based sustainable withdrawal. I talk about these ideas in my investment ideas thread and in my sustainable withdrawal thread. Ultimately, guys are responsible for their own strategies and the consequences of following whatever strategy they choose, including if they choose not to invest into bitcoin.

Quote from: franky1 on Today at 05:02:04 AM

always try to buy-low-sell-high. never buy the peak. be more aggressive during the bigger dips

This may or may not work, depending on a guy's budget. In essence, it seems to me that you are wanting to suggest that newbies try to trade bitcoin, and so they would be employing quite a bit of waiting for dips and trying to figure out if the dip is enough or if they should buy more, and then perhaps they are also never really building up a bitcoin stash because they are selling when the BTC price goes up, so if the BTC price continues to go up, they run out of bitcoin. That does not sound like a good way to accumulate bitcoin, especially for newbies who are likely way better off to focus on buy only strategies until they build up their bitcoin holdings. It takes a long time to build up a bitcoin holdings, so if guys are fucking around waiting for dips that might or might not happen and even selling their BTC at certain times, it becomes more and more unlikely that they are actually going to be building their bitcoin holdings rather than just spinning their wheels.

Perhaps you franky1 are still fucking around with trading bitcoin after 13 years in bitcoin because you never built up a bitcoin stash, you were too busy taking profits along the way, and that does not sound good to be still fucking around with trading after 13 years of being in bitcoin. I doubt that your trading technique even comes close to beating any bitcoiner who has been mostly focusing on accumulating bitcoin through buying in those earlier years rather than trading.. So any guy coming to bitcoin between 2012 and 2015 who mostly focused on accumulating bitcoin through buying only and not meaningfully selling his bitcoin has likely beaten the performance of your bitcoin portfolio where you have been fucking around with trading for the past 13 years.. since you are so smart and you seem to have all of BTC's price moves figured out.

Quote from: franky1 on Today at 05:02:04 AM

and dont worry the market will look after itself to find new high's even without a bunch of naive new investors buying the high. bitcoin has a built in deflation economics, the market will naturally be higher than previous cycles(due to mining cost economics). it doesnt need the naive speculator FOMO push JJG keeps trying to demand of new investors

Sure the bitcoin price is going to find its spot, yet you might have had noticed that in recent times there are all kinds of companies, governments and even status quo rich folks who are buying the shit out of bitcoin and even promoting their hoarding and/or their bitcoin treasure companies, which is ongoingly creating UPpity price pressures on bitcoin, so guys who are not buying regularly and who are selling with expectations of buying back lower might end up getting screwed and lacking in their own focus to make sure that they accumulate bitcoin sooner in their lives rather than employing waiting strategies or even trading strategies that are inferior to strategies that involve ongoing, persistent, consistent, regular and perhaps even aggressive bitcoin buying... and refraining from selling any bitcoin until reaching overaccumulation status (except maybe spend and replace).

Quote from: franky1 on Today at 05:02:04 AM

i say all this because DCA is not actually a strategy. for instance [analogy:]paying taxes pre-income is not a strategy, its just a schedule
tax strategy is to minimise tax expense, maximise deductables and claim rebates, etc...
a strategy is about how to economise spending and maximise profit and then have a strategy to trigger certain acts based on changing events

also just hoarding is not a strategy, something this topic creator is not answering even though topic title suggest it answer, im still wondering what will these national governments strategy going to be about their hoards. are they going to utilise them as collateral to then create bitcoin bonds/ government etf's. EG [analogy:]how bank notes in the 1800's worked creating promissory notes/bonds from gold hoards.. or are they just going to 'fortknox' the bitcoin but do nothing with it for decades like the gold standard change 1970's+

if bitcoin is just going to be held for decades, thats not strategic. thats just having a reserve with no strategy

At least you recognize some of the current dynamics, and surely spending and using bitcoin is also empowering for bitcoin, even though we have governments, institutions and status quo rich folks hoarding it. That is a current dynamic that each of us should acknowledge and attempt to account for it within our own bitcoin strategies whether we are accumulating bitcoin or we are using it in various ways or perhaps a combination of activities that each of us chooses for ourselves..

Quote from: franky1 on Today at 12:11:52 PM

Quote from: ultrloa on Today at 11:24:10 AM

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the main subliminal trick people try to promote DCA is to try to convince naive investors to buy, even on the high. to be blind to the movements, to not care about the costs. inshort they just want blind idiots doing FOMO

DCA lessens the likelihood of FOMO because it involves ongoing and persistent buying no matter the price... and sure maybe some of those buys might end up happening during ATHs or ATH weeks.

Mostly agree. There's too many people "saying" when the right strategy with bitcoin is "doing" and then "not doing anything". It is so counter-intuitive and so against what most of us have been told - "you need to work hard to succeed", "you need to be active", "you need to stay on top"...

An bitcoin is just about not doing anything - well, not exactly - it is about learning and then having the mental strength to do absolutely nothing (AKA hodling).

On the DCA thing... it seems that it is now frequently mentioned, but this exists since forever. It is usually called temporal diversification and you can do it also in the stock market. Diversification can be buying several assets to protect yourself agains... perhaps your own ignorace, imperfect information or simple bad luck.

Temporal diversification (such as DCA or other automated investing systems) is to protect you from your ignorance about when is the optimal moment to buy - clearly my case and honestly the case of most. I would advise this to any normie (I am perhaps a normie to some extent).