Quote from: ESG on Today at 07:09:58 AM

The world would be much better if people questioned, but no, there are very few who question what it is because it is happening around us and around the world, governments throw poison in the air and say that it is to kill mosquitoes, but those who die are the bees and dragonflies, who control the larvae and mosquitoes,.... JJGEE is a good example of a questioner, although not all the questions he asks have a defined goal, but in most of them, they are very interesting questions to answer. for a better world, we need more JJG!

I am surely not going to proclaim that I know the answers to whatever questions that I throw out there since frequently there is going to be personal tailoring that helps each of us to figure out our own balances in regards to both our bitcoin investment and also any of our implementations of our cashflow management practices. I have made plenty of my own mistakes over the years, and sure sometimes we might not realize the impact of our mistakes for several years down the road, yet we cannot go back and change our priorities, or even expect that there is are perfect answers, since most likely there are balances and getting matters directionally correct while we might tweak our courses of action from time to time.

Quote from: ESG on Today at 07:09:58 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 09, 2025, 01:41:20 AM

Quote from: ESG on September 08, 2025, 07:41:38 AM

The first week of September could be better for BTC.... just like in September 2022, Although things are different now.the signs are not good....
... for September, and I think October and November onwards will be same from 2022 as well... also, maybe(hehehe...)

You seem to have had gotten your years wrong.
If you understand that bitcoin has been in a 4-year cycle pattern for the past 16-ish years (sure it is not necessarily precise, but it is how many of us consider the BTC price movements and/or dynamics).

Accordingly, since we are in 2025, then we are looking at 2021 as the place where we are at and not 2022..... since 2022 was pattern upon a downward year that came after the 2021 top, and yeah, the pattern may well not be exact, but if you are looking at 2022 you are in the wrong part of the cycle since 2022 goes along with 2026 looking forward and it goes along with 2018 looking back.

Don't get me wrong. There are some guys who are considering that the 4- year cycle could break at any time, yet it seems to be better to counting the dynamics of the 4-year cycle rather than making up some theory that makes little sense... especially 2022 was totally a down year and we spent 2023, 2024 and this year slowly (and sometimes not so slowly) grinding up from the 2022 lows.. and so therefore questions relate to the extent to which the cycle might be ending or if we might have some kind of a blow off top or potentially otherwise deviating from the four-year cycle by going into some kind of an extended uppity period that drags in to 2026 - which many people consider to still be possible, but it still does not put us into 2022 based on actual dynamics of where we are at, and 2022 we ended up going below the 200-WMA for right around 16 months, and ever since about early 2024 we have been significantly above the 200-WMA.. including currently - nearly 120% above the 200-WMA.

Wouldn't' you consider the dynamics to be different right now since we are 120%-ish above the 200-WMA as compared to September 5, 2022 (the date circled on your chart, when we were about 14% below the 200-WMA?

What you are saying is confusing, and you are proclaiming to aspire towards being a bitcoin trader. Right?

No, in this case, I wanted to show the same date with a similar pattern, in the case of the same day/month of a different year, on the day I wrote it was the same day ...nothing relevant, just the pattern that , I see similarity because it is coming from a top, in the case of 2022, , the top was much further away, Taking into account the same date that i d mention, but also as I said, things are different now, institutional demand.
I believe that your question has already come with the answer,....., more dynamic market, perhaps a shortening of the cycle, already predicting the next cycle and more demand...........

.I also see how little time it, the price, stays low after it reaches a new high?.. still above 110, and now seems to be reversing the process, as if it had formed a shoulder head shoulder in the monthly.this after it passed in 116 ~120, with good volume, seller in 4 out of seven weeks..., And I also didn't say if the price will fall or rise... but the last line meeting was at 116, which has a good volume in that area.... But didn't I say buy or sell? Told? It was not and will not make a trade warning, however, just a similar detail in the dynamic price on the same day and month, three years ago.....

Is it okay?, where I'm wrong, can you correct me, please.
I did not want to repeat, but, I will try different,,. Why would I copy a chart out there to show just one detail?

I don't know where I can help any further. I stated my concerns about how you are looking at the matter, and I don't really believe in trying to trade something like bitcoin, since tend to suggest that guys focus on accumulation through buying until they get enough or more than enough which it can take while to get to such status of having enough or more than enough.

I also consider selling to not be a good accumulation strategy, even though I would consider that if you thinking that the market and the price are getting overheated, then you might want to slow down in buying and then just let your cash build up during those times for the price to dip, even though you would run the risk of getting it wrong and the price goes up rather than down, yet I would consider that the problem of having to buy at a higher price to be less of a problem than having had sold an then the price goes up, especially if you already know that your goal is to accumulate more bitcoin.. .

Quote from: ESG on Today at 07:09:58 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 09, 2025, 01:41:20 AM

By the way, is that your chart with the various squigglies? or did you get such chart from someone else?

I still don't claim to understand your squigglies.. and yeah, the price could break out in either direction.. yet if we are still in a bull market, it is likely to break out to the upside, and sometimes we don't know when the bull market is over until it is 3-6 months after it is already over.. at least that has been my own personal experience in past cycles, and I would not be surprised if I end up in a similar situation this time around, even though my own behavior is largely holding through the ups and downs, except I had considered that I reached overaccumulation status in late 2014.. even though I kept accumulating through 2015 and 2016.

It does seem that persons who reach overaccumulation status are in a better position to start to sell some of their bitcoin, but yeah, frequently mistakes can be made in regards to when overaccumulation status is reached.

My own ways of assessing over accumulation status has changed through the years, so I am not sure if there is necessarily one way of figuring out what your own numbers might be, since your over accumulation status numbers would be tailored to your financial and psychological circumstances.

Quote from: Room101 on Today at 08:04:02 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on Today at 06:51:24 AM

I hate to do the math, ...

I hate to do the math also, lol. I had a lot more than 100 bitcoin at one point. Spend some. I think i bought a MacBook air for my then GF now wife for like 20 BTC at some point. Sold 10 to buy a car when I needed one. Sadly bought some shitcoins way back when....think i spent 10BTC on Neo of all fucking things. Lost some on Gox. Paid off my house. So now selling 20 to buy a bunch of cash flowing real estate seems like a no brainer. And while sure BTC will appreciate more than the return I get from the business, its volatile.

I figured that you had more ins and outs rather than just buying and sitting on the BTC that you bought, yet still overall there are several of us who likely made mistakes along the way, and may well have had ended up with fewer bitcoin due to some of those mistakes or even not considering that we were making any mistakes.

Quote from: Room101 on Today at 08:04:02 AM

I still work a day job despite my networth, because i prefer the cash flow to selling BTC just to live.

Sometimes a job can be convenient, yet at a certain point the numbers might not add up or there might be inconveniences in maintaining the job that may contribute to a parting of the ways. Sometimes also the medical insurance or some other perks of employment might keep some folks from wanting to give up their job... yet at the same time, I think that my earlier numbers that I showed through the sustainable withdrawals tool also show that if you reach your income level or even multiples higher than your current income number that you can start to provide to yourself in a sustainable (perpetual) way, then you might well consider that you have enough of a financial cushion to either completely cut your tie to your regular job or perhaps to attempt to cut back your hours.

Quote from: Room101 on Today at 08:04:02 AM

I may regret it, hell I probably will. But hard to have too much regret when the cashflow is more money than my Mum used to earn in 10 years.

If you have sufficiently investigated into the "business" then using 1/3 of your BTC may well be reasonable diversification, yet at the same time, don't get distracted by nominal value - especially since the dollar has been rapidly debasing in value - especially even more rapidly since March 2020.. but still I get your point that the income could be sufficiently high and a different way of getting money that allows you to potentially quit your job.. It also seems that some folks will purposefully go into other kinds of income streams so that they are not totally dependent on bitcoin, yet it also potentially raises fewer red flags if you have money coming from other sources (besides bitcoin), in the event that you might start to sustainably cash out from whatever your remaining bitcoin balance might be... that is if you need to generate any other income from your bitcoin.. I will concede that sometimes there is value in letting your bitcoin continue to ride and then to draw income from other places (other than your bitcoin), which seems, in part, to be what you are doing in regards to putting 1/3-ish of your bitcoin stash into a likely inferior asset/investment..

Quote from: Room101 on Today at 08:04:02 AM

EDIT: At least I was smart enough to trade by BCH for BTC when it was 0.15 though! Not everything I have done has been stupid!

Yep I sold my BCH (aka bcash) around that price too (on average).. I had some sell below 0.1 and then I had others sell in the upper 0.2s.