Quote from: Hottiek on September 26, 2025, 04:47:33 PM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on September 26, 2025, 04:31:01 PM

Anybody mindrusted yet?
I have to admit recent price action has had me concerned.

The market is the most oversold it’s been since April though. We did pretty well after that so hopefully history repeats. We know that September is the weakest month for Bitcoin. We just need to survive it and don’t do anything stupid, before everything full sends in Q4. On the flip side, October and November are usually really good for Bitcoin in a bull market. Let’s hang on in there WO brothers.

@FrankAFetter
BTC 1-day RSI is the most oversold since the $74k tariff bottom.

https://x.com/frankafetter/status/1971560951204786288

I for sure think the same each day, but then I remember how many cycles I have been in... I am going to try and shave a bit off at the top, and depending on how high it gets, a bit more than a bit, but %-wise, no matter what I decide, it will still be in the single digits of my stash. I believe selling any is a form of mind-rusting, but we all have to eat... and I think I deserve some steak after watching on the sidelines.
As always,
CCFM
K

I understand that sometimes we are not really sure if we have reached a status of overaccumulation, so if you are not sure, you don't want to be the guy that bought 2 pizzas for 10k bitcoin and ending up without very many pizzas..

At the same time, just to repeat some of my earlier ideas, if you have allowed your portfolio to go up 3x, 5x or some other kind of an appreciable amount, then after that, you start to sell up to 10% every time the BTC price doubles (or some variation of that), it is hard to proclaim that you are selling too many coins too soon.

I suspect that there might be some guys who might not have even put 10% of their annual income into bitcoin, so even if their BTC holdings had 10xed, they with ONLY around 1 or 2 years of their income in bitcoin (even accounting for BTC's price appreciation.

I frequently think that we have to be a bit more aggressive, and if we have put anywhere between 50% and 2x of our annual income into bitcoin, then we should be in a decent place after bitcoin had gone up 10x in value.

yeah, sometimes we might wish that we had put in more, but having had put 50% of our annual income into bitcoin is way better than putting 10% or less of our annual income into bitcoin, since it takes way less bitcoin price appreciation if we have those higher amounts in BTC... and even a guy who has 50% of his annual income invested into bitcoin would end up having 5x his annual income in bitcoin if bitcoin had gone up 10x.

I personally think that we have to have 10x our annual income when bitcoin is valued at the 200-WMA in order to really be at entry level fuck-you status, so yeah, there are guys who want to valuate their bitcoin holdings based on spot prices rather than the 200-WMA, which surely has historically put guys into awkward situations of having had prematurely declared themselves as being in entry level fuck you status, when ultimately, it was not true because it seems to be too evasive to be trying to valuate your bitcoin based on spot prices that may or may not be sustainable in anything less than a 4-year timeline, and if we are starting to cash out on our bitcoin, we need to have our bitcoin holdings already in a sustainable place..

Maybe another problem is that if we are trying to ONLY shave off profits at one or two price points, we want to get our price points correct, so then we get nervous about such price points, yet if we already know that our bitcoin qualifies for selling every doubling, we can figure out a place to begin such sales, in the event that we don't want to start selling right now, the maybe we start selling at 2.5% of our stash at some higher price point, and every time it goes up an additional 25%, we sell an additional 2.5%. We can do it in 10% intervals too... every time it goes up 10%, we sell 1% of our bitcoin holdings, so then by the time it goes up 100%, we have sold 10%, and we can play around with the number, and I see no reason to panic if the amount is merely selling less than 10% every time the BTC price doubles.

Quote from: Findingnemo on September 26, 2025, 05:02:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 26, 2025, 03:25:26 AM

Quote from: Findingnemo on September 25, 2025, 07:26:39 AM

So my first cycle isn't very shaky, I knew what I missed and I swore that I am not gonna make the same mistake.

So how was your 2017 to 2020? how long did it take you before you started to focus on accumulating bitcoin? We now know that 2017 to 2020 would have had also been a good time to accumulate, even though surely we had a short lived top between about October and December 2017, yet still as long as you were not doing your frontloading between October 2017 and December 2017, you sill may well could have had ended up doing quite well.. like even in my case, there can be a bit demoralizing when buying bitcoin during a period that the price just kept getting cheaper and cheaper and then get stuck on flat (referring to 2015), yet the downfall between 2018 and 2020 might have felt in a similar kind of a way, yet retrospectively, it ended up being a great time to be buying bitcoin, even if some of your purchases might have had been during some of the higher price periods during that time.

Well, I already had my lessons back then but also I don't want to take the absolute risk so I diversified everything from into bitcoin and gold and more or less it was 50/50 trategy and I just skipped everything else even though some other things came pretty tempting because I just wanted to keep focusing on one thing and gold is universal so I can concentrate on bitcoin completely and also it didn't take much of any strategy, just buy and hold and occasinal cashing out the profits but I confess even in 2018 and 202 I did some stupid spendings but it was okay not that much regretable as 2014.

It is not always clear if some of us learn or tend towards making similar mistakes, because surely each time can feel different, so we lose our focus.

Even if you had two cycles of making mistakes, maybe each cycle gets to be fewer mistakes, so if you got through 2022 without making any major mistakes, then you might have had been able to make up for your mistakes in the first two cycles.

Sure, it sounds worse when I am reminding you that you are likely entering into 4 cycles, especially if you are saying that your first bitcoin related mistakes started in 2014.

There are likely going to be folks who are similarly situated to you, who have to go through the same, or similar mistakes that you already went through, and so in that sense, we are still early, since there are still quite a few new entrants who are going to be coming to bitcoin and making the same mistakes that you already made and hopefully, you have learned from your mistakes to still be able to take advantage of our being early (not as early as we could have had been, but still early, relatively speaking).

Quote from: Findingnemo on September 26, 2025, 05:02:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 26, 2025, 03:25:26 AM

Quote from: Findingnemo on September 25, 2025, 07:26:39 AM

And finally, JJG claiming me to be OG and becoming legendary on the same day should be some kind of sign for all in...before the UPtober.

Congratulations. Surely after such time participating in the forum the merits start to add up, and still in the beginning maybe it is harder to earn merits since no one knows you, and it takes a bit of time for other members to get to know you.. You have posted in way more topics than me.

My first 4 years on the forum, I hardly went outside of the WO thread, yet in 2018, I did begin to slowly start to go outside of the WO thread, yet still trying to mostly stay within bitcoin oriented threads rather than other topics.. even though sometimes I will participate a bit in other topics, too... yet there are still ONLY so many hours in the day and I lose patience with some of the topics, and I sometimes will get frustrated to get involved in (or to talk about) some other forum topics, unless they are at least attempted to be related to bitcoin.

Even after 8 years my knowledge about bitcoin's technical-related things is quite limited but I keep on reading as much as I can and accumulate as much knowledge about bitcoin but in the beginning I concentrated more on the betterment of my finance and even political knowledge that helped me to see the bigger and clear picture of the world which the mainstream media deliberately hide or misguide with their own propoganda.

I am not that heavy when it comes to WO posting because I always had some kind of hesitation like I can't match their vibe or something like that but I never forget to visit WO whenever I login to the forum and read as much as possible and until now my total login time is like 328 days and I can say that atleast 30-40% of the share went on reading WO alone. Wink

Yeah. I have close to 700 days of log in time.. It adds up, over the years..

Quote from: Findingnemo on September 26, 2025, 05:02:25 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 26, 2025, 03:25:26 AM

And, yeah, I screwed up your nice round number of 1,000 merits.. by sending you another smerit.

It's always good to have one more.

P.S: DAMN! JJG novels are the best ones. Cool

Hahahahaha

Sometimes I have to try to figure out if there might be a better way to say some of the things that I say, since some of my talking themes are repetitive, yet every once in a while I feel that I have come across some improved way of saying the same (or a similar) thing...

Quote from: Biodom on September 26, 2025, 07:08:17 PM

Quote from: vapourminer on September 26, 2025, 04:40:31 PM

good grief
has WO fallen so far so soon? or has it been taken over?

its like a 1st cycle "crypto bros club" in here: "im not selling!! you selling??" "dont worry!!!!!!" "HoLD/HlOD/HOLD strong brother!!!" oooonlyeeee UUUUUP from here!
pfft
just look at the OGs here in this thread. theyre the ones snoozing through this whole thing and talking about the weather, haikus and rusty pipes. we are not worried.

not financial advice

I guess, my approach is that bitcoin does not owe me anything...and this makes it easier for me to withstand the "slings and arrows of the outrageous fortune" when the situation presents itself as such.

I could (and will) comment of the peculiarities in its trading and the trends, but that's it...just a WO comment, not an action plan.

That said, i will probably sell an undisclosed % chunk when I retire (to travel, etc).
I am not as hot as others on making gifts to the descendants, but this is something that I could definitely change my mind on later.

Earlier this year (maybe just a couple of months ago?), you seemed to have had been suffering through your own dilemmas regarding price points at which you were planning to sell (or shave some off) this cycle.

Apparently, you resolved your dilemmas.

Hopefully, you won't be suffering too many regrets.

Quote from: Phil_S on September 26, 2025, 08:30:17 PM

Quote from: vapourminer on September 26, 2025, 04:40:31 PM

pfft
just look at the OGs here in this thread. theyre the ones snoozing through this whole thing and talking about the weather, haikus and rusty pipes. we are not worried.

Please stop. I don't like that image. It is like the dog drinking coffee in the burning building and saying. "This is fine."