Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 04, 2025, 06:58:30 PM

Quote from: Lucius on October 04, 2025, 12:54:16 PM

Quote from: El duderino_ on October 04, 2025, 07:16:51 AM

witnessing post once more of low coins on exchanges and supplyshock incoming

will this be the first supplyshock to witness ?

I don't know if there is any way to estimate the liquidity of the largest CEXs, but given that the influence of miners has become minimal and that ETFs buy far more than CEXs can replace, it is obvious that at some point there must be a supplyshock. However, somehow I have the feeling that there are still too many BTC on the market and that considering the price, the quantities being bought are no longer as large as before.

In addition, we still have about 1 million unmined BTC, of which just under 800 000 will be mined in the next 5-6 years, and the last 210 000 will remain for the next 100+ years. I may be wrong, but it seems to me that only then could we see real supplyshocks - unless central banks enter the game and start buying like drunk billionaires.

By the way, considering that most spot BTC ETFs use the custodial service of a well-known CEX, all these coins actually just move from one wallet to another, but remain in the possession of one and the same company.

To the extent that third parties are not overly creating paper bitcoin (and we know that some paper bitcoin are being created), then the price is going to just adapt to supply, so I have been having my doubts that there would be any exact shock, even though surely only so many folks are willing to sell and to put new supply onto the market through their selling.. so if the price suddenly doubles, it seems to me that supply is going to come available.

Regarding your last point, surely the custodian (Coinbase or whatever) is going to end up in BIG trouble if they don't have the coins that they claim to have... surely a honey pot.
~snip~

I understand that it's easier for someone to say "buy, hold, sell BTC for me", but I wonder if these big companies even understand how much risk there is in custodial services? In case something goes wrong (hacking or discovering that CB doesn't have as much BTC as it claims to have), do you think that will lead to CB, Black Rock and some other companies simply deciding to fork BTC?