Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - NEW IPO, NEW HARDWARE, 1,500 TH/S HASH RATE
*snip*
Excellent work. But the reinvestment percentage is 90% going down three - four percent every period. Could you run the numbers using the reinvestment percentage cryptX has said they are going to use?
You can find it here.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjI5bgsiFJAidHgwa0UyTHNEVG1lbDdvN2FMTExvOHc&om=true&richtext=false#gid=32
Once you've put those numbers in you'll know exactly why I've been going batshit crazy.
Okay after adjusting the reinvestment it is a more optimistic outcome and the adjustments in weeks to payback debt, dividends received are adjusted now.
Worst case still 9 weeks but total dividend to shareholders is up to 192.708
Best case still 0 weeks but total dividend to shareholders is up to 2149.708
Realistic projection goes up to 5 weeks but total dividend to shareholders up to 1142.708
This reinvestment plan CryptX has will actually extend the life on the mine and will bring the estimated year prediction up to ~13,000 BTC. About 30% better than my first prediction.
How can the dividend go up in the first ten weeks if the reinvestment percentage is much higher?
No offence but you have done something seriously wrong.
Please post the numbers
The dividend will suffer a loss during the first few weeks after IPO but the additional reinvestment will actually keep up with the difficulty increase longer than the original 35% reinvestment plan. As you can see in the realistic projection it will take an extra week to pay off the debt but the estimated BTC each week is also greater that the mine will yield. Notice how the estimated BTC column stays at a higher yield compared to the first prediction at 35% reinvestment and you will understand how a higher dividend is possible after 10 weeks of operation. Since CryptX's predictions are based on 10 day periods and mine are on 7 day periods to equal the target blocktime the reinvestment % is down to 2.1% which when averaged out to CryptX's 10 day of 3% less will be almost the same.
Worst case.
Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back
10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.154 39.239 1917.761
11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 299.925 221.788 1695.973
11606828781 83086.185 1680.637 509.737 127.434 382.302 328.015 248.497 1447.476
13347853098 95549.112 1834.048 483.710 120.927 362.782 303.649 235.808 1211.668
13347853098 95549.112 2001.827 527.959 131.990 395.970 323.111 257.380 954.288
15350031063 109881.479 2157.143 494.715 123.679 371.036 294.974 241.173 713.114
17652535722 126363.701 2322.413 463.146 115.786 347.359 268.856 225.784 487.331
17652535722 126363.701 2473.292 493.235 123.309 369.926 278.554 240.452 246.879
20300416080 145318.256 2610.811 452.747 113.187 339.560 248.558 220.714 26.164
20300416080 145318.256 2753.290 477.455 119.364 358.091 254.603 232.759 -206.595
Best case.
Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back
10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.154 39.239 -39.239
11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 299.925 221.788 -261.027
11606828781 83086.185 1680.637 509.737 127.434 382.302 328.015 248.497 -509.524
13347853098 95549.112 1834.048 483.710 120.927 362.782 303.649 235.808 -745.332
13347853098 95549.112 2001.827 527.959 131.990 395.970 323.111 257.380 -1002.712
15350031063 109881.479 2157.143 494.715 123.679 371.036 294.974 241.173 -1243.886
17652535722 126363.701 2322.413 463.146 115.786 347.359 268.856 225.784 -1469.669
17652535722 126363.701 2473.292 493.235 123.309 369.926 278.554 240.452 -1710.121
20300416080 145318.256 2610.811 452.747 113.187 339.560 248.558 220.714 -1930.836
20300416080 145318.256 2753.290 477.455 119.364 358.091 254.603 232.759 -2163.595
Realistic case.
Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back
10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.154 39.239 967.761
11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 299.925 221.788 745.973
11606828781 83086.185 1680.637 509.737 127.434 382.302 328.015 248.497 497.476
13347853098 95549.112 1834.048 483.710 120.927 362.782 303.649 235.808 261.668
13347853098 95549.112 2001.827 527.959 131.990 395.970 323.111 257.380 4.288
15350031063 109881.479 2157.143 494.715 123.679 371.036 294.974 241.173 -236.886
17652535722 126363.701 2322.413 463.146 115.786 347.359 268.856 225.784 -462.669
17652535722 126363.701 2473.292 493.235 123.309 369.926 278.554 240.452 -703.121
20300416080 145318.256 2610.811 452.747 113.187 339.560 248.558 220.714 -923.836
20300416080 145318.256 2753.290 477.455 119.364 358.091 254.603 232.759 -1156.595
Ok. Theres your problem. You have only used the new reinvestment percentage for the dividend for the first week. See where it jumps from 39.239 to 221.778? I don't think you pasted the formula down
Thank you for spotting that! Ok after dragging the formula down WOW! This reinvestment plan is amazing for the mine and CryptX! But for shareholders it is HORRIBLE!
Worst case: 21 weeks to pay back debt.
Best case: 0 weeks but only 707 BTC total dividends paid out to shareholders.
Realistic case: 13 weeks to pay back debt with a total of 22.121 BTC in dividends paid out to shareholders.
Thanks, it's nice to hear from someone else I'm not crazy. Best case : 707 BTC. That's less than a 10% yield.
Now please, people, stop being angry at me and start directing it at CryptX. Everything I've told you is true. Now hopefully someone else has verified it you will understand why I've been so adamant about this. I'm not trying to destroy this project, this project is already dead from an investors perspective. I'm trying to save all of you from losing your money, and stop them getting rich off you guys in the process. This is the exact same reason they never wanted to fix the projections, because they knew you would see exactly what they are trying to do.
/out until cryptX deleted this post and I have to add it to the other thread.