Quote from: junkonator on May 20, 2014, 05:20:27 PM

Quote from: twentyseventy on May 20, 2014, 04:59:50 PM

I saw that, it's getting up there! The probability of the end-game via decease versus the probability of end-game via increase, you mean?

Decease of Havelock?

jk. Decrease vs. Increase, yes. Decrease seems highly unlikely right now but still what are the numbers? What if difficulty increases by, say, 16% everytime? What if it this increase decreases by 1% everytime and so on. Lively examples would be helpful!

Haha, slip of the tongue on my part. Well, I believe that I worked it out a while ago (quote below) - difficulty has to increase by at least 6.5% in order for a SELL Dividend to be paid. And, of course, the rise/fall of the difficulty depends on how much hashing power is being deployed.

In order to do even a guess at that (check the PETA thread for some fun predictions), you'd have to try and project out the deployment for AM's Gen 3, Cointerra, KNC, Bitmine, etc, etc. So, unfortuantely, anyone doing so would be doing a lot of guesswork and there are definitely others with better mining market knowledge than me.

Quote from: twentyseventy on March 04, 2014, 05:17:35 PM

I think this is a good time to remind everyone (or make aware to those that haven't done the math) that the Difficulty needs to increase around 6.5% in order for there to be a SELL dividend issued. I say 'around' since it will be somewhat less if there are significant sales of EXCH, which increase the NAV/U.

This is because the Period is started with 200 Days of Dividends and .5% is paid out each day in dividends to MINE (1 Day / 200 Days = .5%). So, at the end of a 10-Day Period, there are only 190 days of dividends remaining at that ending Period's Difficulty.

If there is a Difficulty increase of greater than about 6.5%, then the necessary Reserve of 200 day of dividends has decreased enough to make this a non-issue. If the Difficulty has increased at less than that approximate rate (or stayed the same, or decreased), then the required Reserve is higher than the actual Reserve and there will be no SELL dividend.

TL;DR It's possible that there could be a Difficulty Increase, but no dividends will be issued to SELL for that Period due to the paid Dividends outstripping the decrease brought on by the small Difficulty Increase. But you really should be reading the whole explanation.