Quote from: PacoMartin on June 26, 2014, 05:54:47 AM

Quote from: julz on June 26, 2014, 01:59:15 AM

I paid close to 20% commission.

This is because I paid commission on earnings which then disappeared during a whale run. (and I significantly reduced my investment - so it would take a while to come back)

Look at these 24 bets. They are all characterized by someone betting a large amount of coin, at a probability of player winning of 73%-98%, and then losing it all. More than likely these are not the first bet tried at these odds, as a little success here can make you feel like you are printing money with the touch of a mouse click. The potential profit is the profit they would have earned had they won. The sum of these bets accounts for 78% of the casino win for the year.

Bet/Loss	Prob Win	Pot Profit
7,016	96.20%	204.22
512	74.33%	169.93
512	76.33%	152.06
550	78.50%	143.63
556	79.50%	136.45
256	73.33%	89.62
256	73.33%	89.62
256	73.33%	89.62
256	73.33%	89.62
320	79.50%	78.49
320	79.50%	78.49
219	75.00%	70.00
252	78.50%	65.75
640	90.00%	64.00
230	79.50%	56.48
400	88.00%	50.00
416	90.00%	41.62
395	90.50%	37.10
222	86.00%	33.61
300	90.00%	30.00
300	90.00%	30.00
235	90.00%	23.50
250	95.00%	10.53
210	98.00%	2.14

14,880	87.66%	1,836.47

A total of almost 4 million bitcoins wagered at the beginning of the year produced no profit. All profit of 19000 BTC came from the 1.3 million bitcoins wagered in the latter part of the year.

It is easy to make adjustments after the fact, but I think with a MaxProfit/bet of closer to 100 BTC, and a bankroll of around 20K the site would have made about the same amount of profit. Happier investors because they get a much higher return, and a much less frightening ride.

Someone actually lost a 98% bet? And 7k BTC on a 96% bet? That's crazy. Seems so unlikely that it would fail.