Quote from: klondike_bar on June 30, 2014, 12:37:44 PM

Quote from: itamidensha on June 30, 2014, 10:59:14 AM

Quote from: RoadStress on June 25, 2014, 06:33:14 AM

Quote from: itamidensha on June 25, 2014, 06:15:16 AM

Quote from: RoadStress on June 25, 2014, 05:45:56 AM

Sure. Let's have a 0.1 BTC bet. You bet on your desired difficulty at the end of June and I win if it's less and you win if it's more.

If the bitcoin difficulty is more than 300 billion at midnight on June 30, 2015 - I win.
Otherwise - you win.
Escrow? winner pays?

EDIT: accidentally a word

So if the difficulty is equal or more than 300 billion you win. If it's less than 300 billion then I win. We have a deal! Winner pays 0.1 BTC to the loser.

I will accept any escrow even if for this low amount I don't think it's needed.

Just for the record. RoadStress never put up his end of the bet. He seems to have fallen off the face of the earth - maybe trying to get a refund on his SP30 pre-order(s). Shocked

It was the weekend - i expect roadstress will back up his bet.

personally, I would guess that difficulty on June 30, 2015 will be about 420 Billion. I think we will hit 300 Billion about 1.5 months earlier

I think the 40% spikes we saw in Oct/Nov are the 20-25% spikes we will see this month. Then it will settle down to 10% reducing to single digits. Then there will be another spike when the more efficient companies put out 20/14nm but again it won't be as much maybe 15-20% and it will settle down again in the long run.

I don't think you can say using a calculator that it will be 20% increases going forwards for X months.