Quote from: exocytosis on August 27, 2014, 09:19:18 PM

Quote from: counter on August 27, 2014, 08:49:43 PM

So any technical analysis you could share to explain your point further is again much appreciated.

Technical analysis is bullshit. I only look at the fundamentals.

There's nothing that can drive Bitcoin back to its ATH, or anywhere near it. Willybot's manipulation games were the specific historical circumstances that drove the November 2013 rally.

Look at the statistics of user adoption, and you'll see that BTC is declining. It's not as high up in Google searchtrends as it used to be, and the Average Joe is smart enough to stay away from this speculative pyramid scheme. Meanwhile, increased merchant adoption is obviously driving price down, an undeniable fact noted by every knowledgeable observer.

The Winklevii ETF is already priced in. When insiders learn that the ETF won't be approved, they'll start dumping their coins. The price will plummet, and the cultist permabulls will panic sell until BTC settles at 250ish prices. Shortly after that, it'll bounce up to 370 or so.

Bitcoin is not going to zero anytime soon, but it's in a bear market and will stay there for the unforeseeable future, whether the cultists like it or not.

But BTC is quite good for short-term trading.

funny that you call TA bullshit while touting FA, when FA in bitcoin is completely abstract. bitcoin is not a stock -- fundamentals are based on speculating on future earnings. so one is limited to gauging "interest" in bitcoin -- what a bloody nightmare. completely abstract.

regarding user adoption, the number of new wallets or core downloads are terribly unreliable data. google trends historically lags so far behind that it is likely a horrible indicator. sure, merchant adoption drives price down in the mid term, but we have no reliable data as to the end condition of fiat inflow vs. fiat outflow.

fundamental analysis is based on crazy, crazy speculation. this is why many pure FAers around here are in the "million dollar bitcoins in 10 years" camp. because they rely on horribly misused data and controversial/unproven theories like Metcalfe's "law" to come to those conclusions.

TA at least visually represents who is selling and who is buying, at what volumes and with what momentum. this can tell you a lot about how people perceive the price of bitcoin and its future. there are some good arguments as to why TA is useful here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=678470.0;all

why do you assume the ETF won't be approved? and by the way, how do you "short-term trade" BTC based on fundamental analysis? serious question. Wink