Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 02, 2014, 05:04:35 AM

Quote from: TRex95 on September 02, 2014, 04:44:56 AM

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 02, 2014, 04:21:32 AM

Quote from: screwUdriver on September 02, 2014, 04:09:54 AM

Quote from: Xiaoxiao on September 02, 2014, 04:05:12 AM

Or it might hit a painful sub 100 and stay there for years. not out of the realm of possibilities.

I don't think it will go down this low. Bictcoin has traded between the mid 400's and the lower 700 range all year (post gox). I don't personally see it going much lower then the mid to low 400 range (in the past it has always rebounded strongly when it got to these levels).

The problem with that statement is that eventually, you run out of buyers. Everyone who bought the last 2 or 3 bounces in this range has made decent money IF they sold. But many (perhaps most) did not so they are full. Also, eventually you run out of suckers and the buyers get beaten down until they are too wary to buy at these prices again and again.
The main point I am trying to make here is that just because it has done this before, does not mean it will continue to do the same. Many traders who use trend lines will tell you that a trend lines get broken on the 4th test. So they all fail to hold at some point. Even though it may not last long (or it might) a spike that gets through still counts and that is all that is needed to break a trend.

You could make the same argument about running out of sellers when the price gets to the 700 range.

I would argue that a lot of people who bought in the low 400 range likely sold at higher prices and now potentially have more money to invest/speculate with.

Absolutely! I'm not saying that as a Bearish statement. Only that you can't count on something because that is what happened last time. I know that it works the same way in the other direction, but we're talking about the lower end here. $400 is in far more immediate danger than the $700 level, and as prices drop, some people that had no intention to sell, may find their incentive to sell, and before you know it, panic is in full swing.

Those who did actually sell what they bought at $400, sold them to someone. Likely at a price that is higher than it is now. It's not as if when you sell, you sell to some money machine... You sell to someone else who has emotions when money is at stake. There are two sides to every trade, and people are panicky.

i don 't fully understand these complicated considerations. I saw it much easier. a lot of people bought bitcoin last autumn because it was something new, so it created a great demand. So it was a unequivocal superiority of demand over supply and the price rise.
Now although bitcoin is accepted in a lot of shops and a lot of people use it - which is important, without it the bitcoin finished - but the consequences is stabilize prices around 500 or less.
Maybe you think something similar in another words.