Quote from: organofcorti on April 24, 2012, 10:46:38 AM

Quote from: kano on April 24, 2012, 06:22:47 AM

Quote from: Ente on April 24, 2012, 05:52:18 AM

..let me know a few hours before your rig goes down, next time, ok? I would like a "warning, blockfinding-spree ahead!" warning system! ;-)

It all evens out after some time.

Ente

Actually ... no it doesn't.
If you lose out in a good luck spree there is no guarantee whatsoever that you will get it back later.
There is no memory in bitcoin hashing.

Kano: Central limits theorem.

IMHO Kano is correct, and I don't see the relevance of the Central Limit Theorem to the question of whether bad luck in the past will be compensated for in the future. The idea that tossing a fair coin and getting, say, six heads in a row will be "evened out" by disproportionally more tails in future tosses is known as the Gambler's Fallacy. If you've had bad [or good] luck in the past, then your lifetime expectation for luck is bad [or good]; you cannot change the past -- it is the baseline for your future. More generally, probability theory deals with unknown (often future) events, not known past events.