Quote from: CoinCube on December 21, 2014, 03:55:38 AM

Quote from: contagion on December 18, 2014, 11:50:58 PM

OTOH, government is the most egregious human trafficker, bribing our women (with inequality employment laws, welfare, subsidizing hypergamy, and divorce battering ram) to ignore men forsaking child rearing (birth rates have collapsed in Western nations where government is > 50% of the economy) and conscripting our men to kill each other in silly wars.

http://blog.jim.com/economics/the-future-belongs-to-those-that-show-up/
http://blog.jim.com/images/JapanFert4.png

This is more likely the result of the widespread use of contraceptives.

Quote from: Wikipedia

Beginning in the 1960s, the Japanese used more condoms per capita than any other nation in the world.

You are citing the obvious first-order effect and not the generative essence. What leads to massive use of contraceptives? It is when women are supported by the State so they don't have to worry about who is going to provide for them (they State even legislating them to receive preferential treatment in school, workforce, and marriage), so they can have affairs with bad boy losers and use contraceptives with their enslaved, good boy beta-male husbands so they force their slaves to financially support the children he didn't know he didn't procreate.

Women have a strong preference for hypergamy. It is only the reality of the market that they can't support themselves that causes them to behave and serve a man to raise a family. When the State removes the effects of the free market and attempts to establish women as equal to men (which they are not), then fertility and society collapse. Watch 2016 onwards the horrific outcome...

The high genius Eric S. Raymond has written extensively about this on his blog, esr.ibiblio.org. He explains it better than my summary above.

Quote from: CoinCube on December 21, 2014, 03:55:38 AM

Quote from: contagion on December 20, 2014, 02:36:19 AM

Is H7N9 the next pandemic?

Armstrong's highly accurate cyclic computer models predict the peak of a global pandemic to occur in 2019.

Most pandemics occur when a pathogen jumps a species barrier to a new host (humans) that are not adapted to it. Such a process should be random and follow a Poisson distribution. The expected time between pandemics should therefore follow an exponential distribution. I am skeptical of the validity of a cyclical model predicting a definitive pandemic date.

The Poisson distribution is the Binomial distribution at the limit of infinity, so the trials must be independent:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution#Related_distributions
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution

Armstrong says the random walk hypothesis is bullshit and the events of life are not independent random variables:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/18/deep-learning-analytics-v-random-walk/

It is not likely random because I explained how it was likely man's economy that caused the Black Death, because of the overconcentration of fleas and squalor in proximity to humans, because over the overpopulation meant less than a subsistence wage for agriculture meant the Industrial Age did not occur yet meant that squalor was worse (e.g. no plumbing and sewers yet population was exploding and getting too dense). And now we have overconcentration of domesticated fowl in proximity to humans and neither of them have immunity to the viruses carried by the wild fowl (and other species).

Have you looked at the overcrowded, inhumane way we farm raise poultry and other farm animals?

http://www.seattleorganicrestaurants.com/vegan-whole-foods/images/chicken-in-cages.jpg http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6-MLwIpO5gQ/TrjOdA6RSMI/AAAAAAAAAD8/k0evfzu5k54/s320/chickens-4.jpg
http://www.green-blog.org/media/images/uploads/2010/07/factoryfarming11_thumb.jpg http://www.green-blog.org/media/images/uploads/2010/07/factoryfarming7_thumb.jpg

You see man's economy was the driving force that required changes. The Black Death reduced the population, which allowed agricultural wages to increase above subsistence, which allowed investment and ingenuity to be more diverse and thus lead to the Industrial Revolution, which thus reduced the squalor.

Please read my posts more carefully. I already had stated (or implied) all of that. Thanks though for raising the issue so I could clarify.