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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
AlcoHoDL
on 20/07/2025, 18:51:33 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
I was about to write this as the last verse of my last Sunday haiku:

200 proof soon!

And then I wondered. Does it actually exist? Googling revealed that the highest proof is 175, which corresponds to 100% alcohol content.

Too many syllables for the haiku, too low for BTC/USD price. $175k is for ants. Got to find another metric soon. One that goes to millions. Sorry Phil.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
AlcoHoDL
on 20/07/2025, 09:07:13 UTC
⭐ Merited by philipma1957 (1) ,Lucius (1) ,vapourminer (1) ,ivomm (1) ,sirazimuth (1) ,OutOfMemory (1)
What a week that was!
Two days full of ATHs!
Chopper flying high!

OK. And then what?
Sideways action has resumed.
Chopper has landed.

Come on, now, Bitcoin.
Give Bitcoiners what they want.
More hopamine please!

Bob is still alive.
This planet is gay AF.
His words, no homo!

Market cap rising.
Amazon gone, Apple next.
Gold getting closer!

Knob Creek chug-a-lugged.
Phil's liver ain't too happy.
Elijah Craig's next!

Ants building support.
Locked, cocked, and ready to rock.
Stay safe, stay single!

#7wodigestsundayhaikus
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Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
AlcoHoDL
on 19/07/2025, 02:13:38 UTC
⭐ Merited by Gachapin (1)
Just got this Fake trezor attack email

Logo
Official Security Incident Report

Dear Trezor User,

This communication is to inform you of a significant security incident. Trezor has confirmed a coordinated social engineering attack resulting in unauthorized access to our internal server infrastructure. The investigation has determined that threat actors, with characteristics consistent with the North Korean state-sponsored group Lazarus, gained access after successfully placing personnel within a third-party contractor using falsified credentials.

These individuals deployed malware that compromised specific communication endpoints, leading to the exposure of user data. We have verified that this vector has been used to execute unauthorized transactions totaling approximately $70 million in BTC and ETH. Our team is working with blockchain analysis firms to trace the stolen assets. This attack vector aligns with intelligence on sophisticated campaigns previously analyzed by our team (for more context, see published analysis).

We are requiring users to take mandatory mitigation steps.

Mandatory Mitigation Steps

To contain this threat and protect your assets from further exposure, we have issued a mandatory firmware update. This update serves as a containment and neutralization protocol, which will re-establish a secure communication channel between your device and the Trezor network.

We have the utmost confidence in our remediation plan, but its success depends on your prompt cooperation. We take this matter with the greatest seriousness and regret any concern this may cause.

Proceed to Dashboard
Sincerely,
The Trezor Security & Compliance Office

SatoshiLabs s.r.o., Kundratka 2359/17a, 180 00 Prague 8, Czech Republic

This is a mandatory security notification regarding your Trezor account.

Got exactly the same email. It seems someone is trying to trick unsuspecting users into installing compromised f/w in their Trezors. It's so obvious to us that it's a scam, but it seems that a small percentage of users fall for it.

Always use official channels for f/w updates and never reveal anything relating to keys, seeds or PINs to anyone!
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
AlcoHoDL
on 14/07/2025, 17:45:07 UTC
Speaking of Peter Schiff, where is that other bozo, Nouriel Roubini?

At least Schiff is quasi-entertaining to watch. Roubini is more toxic than pouring sulphuric acid in a toilet bowl.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
AlcoHoDL
on 14/07/2025, 15:46:12 UTC
Back to $120k I see...

But, he promised Laura it would never go down.

When will this torture end? Cry
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
AlcoHoDL
on 14/07/2025, 04:16:49 UTC
Cheers, gentlemen!

P.S.: Still waiting for the EUR ATH but... it's coming!

True. Almost 106 € (Kraken).

Soon.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
AlcoHoDL
on 14/07/2025, 03:42:41 UTC
$120k surpassed.

Phil and vroom should do their dues.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
AlcoHoDL
on 13/07/2025, 20:38:02 UTC
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Merits 2 from 1 user
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
AlcoHoDL
on 13/07/2025, 19:08:19 UTC
⭐ Merited by philipma1957 (2)
Friends, in your opinion, what happens after reaching 120k? Wink

Chopper takes off.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
AlcoHoDL
on 13/07/2025, 09:49:33 UTC
Mempool at 1 block.

You mean 1 sat/vbyte mempool fee priority instead? Yes that is true. Although weekends have less congestion but the mempool has been less congested since few months ago despite the all time high.

I tried to keep vapourminer's phrase intact, but now I see the context was not carried through clearly enough... So I updated it. Thanks for pointing it out.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
AlcoHoDL
on 13/07/2025, 08:34:43 UTC
⭐ Merited by El duderino_ (3) ,JayJuanGee (2) ,vapourminer (1) ,xhomerx10 (1) ,Hueristic (1)
Sure, it took a while,
But, as certain as sunrise,
Bitcoin price rose, too!

3 days, 10%
3 months, 43%
Are you not convinced?

Craig Wright hacked himself.
Jeffrey Epstein hanged himself?
Cyphersthetical!

What's with the bottles?
Liver transplants don't come cheap.
Do push-ups instead!

Mempool at 1 block.
Corn ain't for coffee, baby.
Just ask the moon girl!

It's too expensive.
Yes, nocoiners still say that.
Have fun staying poor!

What a smashing week!
Dopamine in my bloodstream.
No drugs, just Bitcoin!

#7wodigestsundayhaikus
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
AlcoHoDL
on 13/07/2025, 05:23:46 UTC
⭐ Merited by vapourminer (1) ,Lucius (1) ,JayJuanGee (1)
[...]

...sell when you must, and only when you must!

[...]

Even though I get the sentiment of "sell when you must, and only when you must!," I still think that there are ways to attempt to engage in such BTC sales in prudent ways.

In recent months, I had been going back and forth in my own head in regards to some of my BTC sell orders that I had - both in terms of increments and in terms of amounts, which also led me to makeing some changes on at least a couple of occasions.  I made some changes, then I thought about some better changes and I wrote them down for what I would do at a later date, and then several weeks passed, and then I had kind of forgotten my written down changes, and I had to go over them again and to actually put them live in order to make sure that was the additional changes that I wanted to put in place... . .which largely my own mostly went from $112.5k to $450k, and so I made some changes, then when I made some additional changes they ended up having affects through the whole range, even though the initial changes that I probably made in December or so were just to put some of my notes into action to add sell orders between $150k and $450k), but then after they sat for a while, I noticed some part in the middle that was uncomfortable to me, so then I largely ended up changing the middle, but once I changed the middle, then pretty much the whole range ended up getting affected.

Sometimes I feel that it is helpful to go through them and to fix them to my current "feelings," and even for me, it was much more difficult to transition into selling in the earlier years (referring to my having had started price-based selling in 2015), yet it seems to get easier and easier with practice, even if the amounts might sometimes seem large, but if you had already worked it out in your head (and maybe on paper), then you should already be "o.k." with the process playing out, since one of your assumptions that should be built into any price-based sale is that the BTC price could continue to go up after your price-based sale had executed and you already have that built into your formula..

so for example if you have sales of 1% of your bitcoin stash for every 25% rise in the BTC price, your formula should already account that if the BTC price went up 25% and you are selling 1% of your stash, then you are ONLY selling a small sliver of the new value of your holdings that likely should not make much of a difference, especially if you had already assessed your portfolio for having had crossed into overaccumulation status.

I know that one fo the horrible psychological things that any of us might be having is our thoughts that we can never have enough and also we realize that bitcoin is likely amongst if not the best of assets that are currently available, so it can become difficult to sell it, even when we might have had engaged in sufficient thinking through the matter.  

Maybe it is a bit easier (and better) to conceptually work from doublings, even though for sure our sales might be within smaller increments, yet there can be a difference between our first sale.. that might require that our holdings be 10x, or 20x or some other 100x or some other convenient multiple/magnitude of appreciation, yet after we meet our first threshold level, then we likely are able to sell in various smaller increments (we don't need a doubling), we could even sell every 10% rise if we wanted, and just adjust the size of our sale for each increment.  

So if we might say that our starting conceptual point is to realize that each doubling the profits within the dollar value of our stash is 50%, so we could sell up to 50% of our stash for each doubling and get back the full value of what it was, and it would remain at that same value, but then if we sold the whole 50%, then we would not benefit from any compounding of the value.  .. so if we compromise and we say that we will sell 25% of the profits for every doubling, then we would then be extracting half of the price appreciation and allowing half of the value to compound.

I personally like to suggest that the absolute maximum (for my own preferences) is to extract 10% for every doubling, even though I personally have gravitated towards ONLY extracting 2% or so for every doubling.. .so in recent years, I have been under extracting from my own holdings based on my own calculations that the amount extracted is way more than I need to extract, but I still find some ways to use some of the extracted money, even though some of my own extracted money ends up getting deployed in order to buy back at lower prices in the event that we go there, even though I would prefer not to go there.. but the money is there and has been building up since 2015, so these days my outstanding buy orders go down to right around $30k, so it is just extra money that can also be available to extract if want to take some of the money then I just cancel some of the lower buy orders.  I had recently extracted my money from buy orders that were at $26k, $27k and $28k.  Earlier I had considered having orders going down to the 200-WMA or maybe 10% below the 200-WMA to be enough to maintain, yet these days (mostly since about 2022), I have come to believe that it is better to keep buy orders active that go to right around 35% below the 200-WMA, and since the 200-WMA is currently right about $50k, I am already authorize to extract from any of my buy orders that are less than $32.5k.

I am going to just hypothesize that you (and/or likely placed individuals of the WO thread) have an average BTC buy price that is at least lower than $5k... and to the extent that it is lower, is not really very material.  So the essence of what I am saying that any sales that start at $100k or higher would therefore have at least a 20x price appreciation, so in that kind of a scenario, your first threshhold sales are at least 20x in profits.

So then we are all good because we have sales that are already 20x in profits, which is great even if you might have costs of $33k, which would only be a 3x in profits, but 20x is even better than 3x.

So then if we are already in 20x profits for our first sale then we are already good..to follow whatever formula we have, even if the very first sale might be 10% of the holdings.  So then the next sale might be at $200k (a doubling) and then another 10% can be sold... yet at the same time, you might decide that you don't want to wait such large increments, so instead you decided to sell 1% every 10% rise in the BTC price, which largely should still bring you to right around 10% sales for every doubling.

So even if we might accept that we are going to do 10% sales for every doubling, we still have to consider that the other 40% is compounding in value amongst itself.. yet of course, 40% is really 90% since we have the other 50% that we are presuming to have had been the value of our holdings prior to the doubling.

I am feeling that I am starting to go into "insider baseball" or too many intricacies, yet my point still remains that even if you were to authorize yourself to withdraw up to 10% for every doubling, you are still having some thing like 40% of the value compounding upon itself, even though 90% of the value is really not being sold, but your bitcoin holdings is still going way up in value at a rate that is way faster than the amount that you are withdrawing... so why get worried about any amount of sales as long as you are not exceeding some internal threshold that you might have, such as 10% for every doubling or whatever other formula that you might have, to the extent that you have a formula and to the extent that you did not exceed such formula parameters.

By the way, in my own thinking we have a combination of price-based withdrawal systems and also time-based withdrawal systems, and I personally think that the price-based ones are easier to employ in the beginning, and perhaps when the BTC price keeps going up ad up and up, at some point we likely can advance to the higher level of time-based withdrawal systems, that would care even less about the price, just authorized BTC sales once a month, or once a quarter  or twice a year or whatever other time-increment that you might choose to adopt.  

I probably had been thinking that my bitcoin holdings were ready for time-based withdrawals some time in 2019 or so, when I had determined that as long as BTC prices were above $5k, then I should not be overly concerned about the extent to which I might need to (or want to) make some sales from time to time that might fit within a parameter of my then thoughts of 4% per year... I think that in 2019, I did not really have the parameters of my time-based sustainable withdrawal system worked out, so at that time they were kind of like theoretical parameters that were in my head about selling no more than 4% per year as long as the BTC price was at least above $5k....    I think that in recent times, I have improved upon the intricacies of my own thinking of other applicable parameters dealing with valuating BTC holdings within the 200-WMA and then so my time-based restrictions on withdrawal have to do more with where the BTC price is as compared with the 200-WMA, so even if I might be authorized to sell up to 10% of my BTC holdings every year as long the BTC spot price is at least 25% higher than the 200-WMA, I can still continue to time-base sell BTC, even if the spot price goes below 25% above the 200-WMA, yet only within acceptable reduced rates.

So I suppose that price-based withdrawal and time-based withdrawal could be employed simultaneously, but then I doubt that I could even authorized to go beyond the time-based sustainable withdrawal practices, if it were to appear that I would be getting close to my theoretical limit of 10% per year, and then the reduced rates that kick in when the BTC price is lower than 25% above the 200-WMA and then all the way down to no longer being able to sell any BTC if the BTC price drops to more than 35% below the 200-WMA, which right now would be right around $32.5k. (my reduction of withdrawal rates are shown within the bottom explanations of the sustainable withdrawal tool).

Quote
When the BTC spot price is at least 25% above the 200-week moving average, then at least 1 month's withdrawal will be authorized; however,
A) if the BTC spot price is between 10% and 25% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 90% of the current month's limit.
B. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 10% above the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 85% of the current month's limit.
C. if the BTC spot price is between 0% and 20% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 70% of the current month's limit.
D. if the BTC spot price is between 20% and 30% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 50% of the current month's limit.
E. if the BTC spot price is greater than 30% and 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be authorized to withdraw for only 40% of the current month's limit.
F. if the BTC spot price is greater than 35% below the 200-week moving average, then you will be not be authorized to withdraw any BTC from the budget.

I was thinking of "editing out" your post, but then I thought I should leave it untouched, as a reference to my reply.

You know, my sell order went through, and I felt odd about it, and I may have canceled it, had I remembered it being there, but still, I also felt happy and satisfied that I got some more chunk of fiat cash for "free". Free, in the sense that I consider my Bitcoin stash as a kind of "universe's free gift". It's kind of like "kissing the frog and getting your prince", so to speak. It's the reward for recognizing the value and ingenuity hidden in the Bitcoin white paper, for reading between the lines and realizing early enough that this has the potential to change everything in the monetary system of the world. Surely, there was a risk involved in kissing the frog, as there always is (there is "no free lunch" in the universe), but it was very small, in retrospect.

You're absolutely right, my average buy price is very low, under $2k to be more specific. As much as I despise fiat and the traditional monetary system, I know that it is (still) necessary to go through that system, in order to get things done. So, fiat is going to play a part in going from Bitcoin to realizing my dreams. I try to make that part a transitional one, hence the "...only when you must" part of my phrase above. Still, though, it's good to have a healthy chunk of fiat parked in a bank account, for low/mid-level value purchases here and there. The more Bitcoin one has, the more this makes sense, and the easier it is to achieve it. Also, many of us (myself included) are still employed, and still have a steady, healthy fiat income every month. At some point, the situation becomes self-sustaining, in that occasional, even regular, moderately sized Bitcoin-to-fiat conversions do not affect the total fiat value of one's stash. In fact, one can keep spending their Bitcoin, and their stash fiat value can keep rising still. You can call it win-win, or fuck-you status, or whatever, but once you get there you can see things from a different perspective.

I believe that, in the end, one's actions when it comes to Bitcoin may be governed (at least partly) by psychology, inner feelings, desires and irrational thinking, rather than pure logic. LFC is waiting to sell 25% in order to buy back lower later on (I hope it doesn't bite him in the end...), others just shave off small amounts as needed to do what they want, some have purchased massively expensive things that wasted a large chunk of their stash, only to regret it later on. In the other extreme, mindrust got scared of the price dropping to nearly $3k, sold his 10 BTC and got $30k, while now he would have more than $1M.

1 BTC. This is the threshold to reach as of now, in my opinion. Anyone having $120k to spare, go buy 1 BTC and store it away in a Trezor or paper wallet. Don't overthink it. Do it. Had I done the same in 2015 I would now own thousands of Bitcoin.
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Merits 20 from 9 users
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
AlcoHoDL
on 12/07/2025, 07:41:51 UTC
⭐ Merited by BitcoinBunny (5) ,LoyceV (4) ,El duderino_ (3) ,JimboToronto (3) ,Paashaas (1) ,d_eddie (1) ,vapourminer (1) ,jojo69 (1) ,JayJuanGee (1)
Hey WOers!

Too busy with real-life stuff... Would love to post more, but I can only browse and quickly skim though the posts. Missed most of the party, bur caught the first ATH.

Damn it, got a notification that a sell order filled yesterday. I had forgotten about it. Would probably have canceled it if I knew. No big deal, the amount was small anyway, but goes to show that every sell without a specific purpose will soon be a regret. Buy when you can, sell when you must, an only when you must!

Guys 'n' gals! Feels so great, doesn't it? Being so free to so whatever you want (most of it anyway). We are all so blessed. Was going through a list of items to buy, and just sent the order, didn't even check the prices.

Thanks to everyone for keep posting away, what a great community we've built. Seeing a couple of two-liner posts from Jay scared me a little, but I'm sure it's temporary. Love you Jay, keep posting!

Feeling good... Have a great Sat/Sun all.
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Merits 4 from 4 users
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
AlcoHoDL
on 11/07/2025, 03:28:54 UTC
⭐ Merited by Hueristic (1) ,JayJuanGee (1) ,goldkingcoiner (1) ,xhomerx10 (1)
Wish I could feel happy about the ATH. Dad died. Police came to tell me they found him in his apartment after residents called in because of a smell. Happened while I was on vacation in Italy. I really don't know what to feel, just keeping myself distracted.

Just saw your post... Sorry for your loss, brother. My deepest condolences.

I lost my dad when I was thousands of miles away, in another country. My mum and relatives were next to him throughout his decline. No one told me about it, until it was too late -- his request. He was gone in a few months due to cancer. Being close to your loved ones and having the chance to say goodbye is important. We should always try to keep in touch with our parents and be kind to them, and close to them, no matter what has happened in our lives and how distant we may have become.

Cheesy as it may sound, I always tear up when listening to this song. What I would give today to spend a day with my dad...

Mike + The Mechanics - The Living Years
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
AlcoHoDL
on 09/07/2025, 19:55:37 UTC
⭐ Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3)
ATH achieved.
Where no man has gone before.
Warp 10 speed. Engage!

#pumpityhaiku
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Merits 6 from 4 users
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
AlcoHoDL
on 09/07/2025, 19:41:34 UTC
⭐ Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3) ,bitcoinPsycho (1) ,vapourminer (1) ,xhomerx10 (1)
ATH in 1 minute.
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Merits 5 from 5 users
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
AlcoHoDL
on 06/07/2025, 09:49:40 UTC
⭐ Merited by OutOfMemory (1) ,vapourminer (1) ,philipma1957 (1) ,xhomerx10 (1) ,JayJuanGee (1)
50,000 posts!
That's quite an achievement, Phil.
Berry, berry good!

Blue pill lasts a day.
Orange pill lasts forever.
Laura can confirm!

Trump at odds with Musk.
A toxic combination.
"Kill Bill" Volume 3!

Bitcoin and WOers:
We don't take no prisoners,
And don't give a fuck!

ATH edging.
The banana zone awaits.
LFC drooling!

We're a speck of dust,
In the boundlessness of space.
Thank you, OOM.

ChartBuddy got goxxed.
Bitcoin dominance rising.
Strap in for the ride!

#7wodigestsundayhaikus
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
AlcoHoDL
on 29/06/2025, 18:06:24 UTC
AI gets smarter.
Intelligence is conserved.
Humans get dumber!

#7wodigestsundayhaikus

I'm not fond of digests, or multi-haikus, as they relax the most stringent requirement: synthesis.
However, this is a gem  Grin

Thanks, I appreciate it. I also think this was the best of all 7. I agree, digests are too constrained. x7 too. Not easy. It's easier if I do one each day of the week, but I'm usually busy or distracted, and end up doing all 7 on Sunday. And the heat wave today did not help. Not my best work.
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Merits 8 from 5 users
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
AlcoHoDL
on 29/06/2025, 15:00:47 UTC
⭐ Merited by fillippone (3) ,JayJuanGee (2) ,d_eddie (1) ,vapourminer (1) ,OutOfMemory (1)
Going down, then going up.
The same as sideways, really.
In corn, and in sex!

Accumulation.
But how much, and for how long?
How much is enough?

AI gets smarter.
Intelligence is conserved.
Humans get dumber!

God, the creator,
Of creators' creations?
No! I don't think so!

Drugs for losing weight?
Tell that to a third-world child.
Just cut the junk food!

Now, let's get this straight.
Dead cats and fat chicks may bounce,
But they just bounce once!

Hell on earth this week.
A/C struggling to keep up.
Corn unaffected!

#7wodigestsundayhaikus
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Merits 2 from 2 users
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
AlcoHoDL
on 26/06/2025, 22:30:05 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1) ,xhomerx10 (1)
Would be extremely disappointed if BTC will not break $200,000.

Makes 2 of us

 Make that 3 of us

 (it has been on my avatar far too long now)

Pussies.

How about $1M?

Doubling won't cut it.
Not in a decimal world.
Tendruplication!

#math&sciencehaiku