I wanted to use your 17.166 BTC number in my reply to Leahized, but couldn't remember it, and your link (in my bookmarks) defaults to 21 BTC (which is pretty close, actually).

I find the 10 BTC estimate above to be over-optimistic even for someone in his 40s, let alone a 5 y.o., in that there may be future situations playing out, that could affect the prospective growth of Bitcoin, so it's better to be on the conservative side when it comes to life choices like retirement, quitting one's job, etc., and there are other things to also consider, like medical insurance. Ideally, for me, the best scenario would be to retire at the earliest possible time (even on a reduced pension, due to an early exit), and then start spending your Bitcoin slowly and as needed, to sustain the lifestyle you want (which heavily depends on your wants & needs, LHB and all). In this way, you are secure (as much as a state can provide security) in terms of coverage of basic life needs and medical expenses, and Bitcoin adds the extra element of doing what you really want and dream of. So, to sum up, I'd say about 20 BTC (or 17.166 BTC in your calculation) is a better estimate to achieve this, at least for someone living in the USA or similar western country. Other countries may require much less than this amount, of course, so each one of us should do a personalized estimation, using your useful tool in the link above.

I must say that the older I get, the more eager I feel about pulling the fuck-you lever, even disregarding the medical insurance issue (which, paradoxically, should be more important as one gets older). I guess that, when we get older, we realize that life is more "finite" that we thought it was, and we begin to realize that there are only so many years that we will be able do the things we want to do, before old age starts having a debilitating effect on us. Bright examples like Phil and Jimbo show that there can still be many, many productive years ahead of us, but still, the feeling is there and getting stronger the more we age.

tl;dr: 17.166 BTC and getting smaller. I'm happy with that!

So, according to this analysis, any coiner from 5 to 75 years old with 10 BTC can retire right now and live for the rest of their life by spending $100k / year.

Sounds very promising. Will make many wonder why they are still employed...

What a manic week!
So many things happening!
Where to even start!

May Day or mayday?
I'll take the first one, thank you.
This ship ain't sinking!

PlanB's predictions.
Good intentions, flawed thinking.
Delayed promises.

I'm opposing forks,
Like a Chinese restaurant!
Let's hope Core see sense.

Arizona votes,
And bitch Katie Hobbs vetoes.
Democracy rules!

Thought you could grow gold?
Nuclear mushrooms ain't real.
Buy Bitcoin instead!

Buy, but don't flaunt it,
Because a 5-dollar wrench,
Is painfully cheap!

#7wodigestsundayhaikus

Quoting this, to make the image visible.

I like to see predictions like this. Surely, 2025 will be an exciting year price-wise. Looking fwd to Q4.

This has happened to me all too many times. More often than not, I'm able to steer the AI to several different, conflicting answers to a specific question. In its current state (at least the versions accessible to the public), I don't think AI can be used as a reliable source of information, even on technical subjects where the answer is indisputable, as in the above example. The sad (and potentially dangerous) thing is that many people blindly use AI to "do the work" for them, without even trying to cross-check the content it spews out. I have a colleague at work, with a Ph.D. in physics, of all things, who, when asked to review a paper for a journal, sometimes can't be bothered to read it, but just lets ChatGPT comment on it and simply submits the response to the editors. Can you imagine? Your submitted paper, which you worked really hard to write, experiments performed, etc., at the mercy of and AI engine...

If you want to see how clever (or not) ChatGPT really is, watch this video (may have posted it before, can't remember). It delves into how an AI "thinks" (at least as it pertains to image generation), and its relation to empiricism, as introduced by Scottish philosopher David Hume nearly 300 years ago.

YouTube — Why Can’t ChatGPT Draw a Full Glass of Wine?

Added both videos to my "Watch Later" list. Very interesting, and (somewhat) worrying, I must say.

The thing is, Bitcoin is a human creation, and as such, it is subject to human errors and even a complete collapse if something goes terribly wrong. This is a fundamental difference between Bitcoin and naturally-created elements, such as precious metals (gold, silver), and this is the reason why I'm skeptical when changes to the Bitcoin code are proposed and implemented. To counteract this inherent disadvantage, Bitcoin has mechanisms in place, like consensus, forking, and decentralization, so that any side effects in code changes can be quickly and effectively mitigated. There have been numerous code updates over the 16+ years of Bitcoin's history, and Bitcoin is still going strong and better than ever, which shows that this system is extremely robust and failure-resistant. Still, Bitcoin Core consists of human beings, and human beings often fuck things up for various reasons.

Having said that, the ability to update the code is a major (if not the major) advantage of Bitcoin, because it allows progress, innovation, and the mitigation of future issues (think Quantum Computing attacks or other advances in cryptography).

Perhaps I should have posted this after watching the videos, but this is my initial, uninformed take on the issue. In 2017 I was totally against the block size increase (heated arguments with jbreher and all). Code disputes, conversations shutting down, potential forks, etc., just worry me. Maybe I'm just being paranoid (I do that often), or it's because I generally tend to favor a conservative ("if it ain't broke, don't fix it") approach to critical code changes. I guess Bitcoin has grown so big that it simply cannot be allowed to collapse. Will see what the future brings. Only good things, I hope.

We still need $110k for the chopper...

Still some way to go, but getting closer.

Should happen in May.

Who said it was going down? Was it Paashaas?

Guys 'n' gals. Come on now. Most of us are so long in this game that we know better than falling for the noise.

Just to recap: It's going UP forever, Laura.

Just chill & prepare for what's coming.

+1 WOsMerit.

Nice!

I wonder what the purpose of those square holes on the walls is...

Individuals?
Bitcoin is the solution.
Institutions? Same!

As for governments,
Bitcoin has a major flaw.
It can't be printed!

Nightflight to Venus.
That's a Boney M. song, right?
Homer made me trip!

Old users bragging.
Merit whores AI-posting.
A thread of wonder!

cAPSLOCK quit his job.
He does not have or need much.
He is a smart man!

Coffee, day or night.
Eating with my fingers, too.
Fuck savoir vivre!

Pump has deflated.
Singing llama ain't singing.
Please, Saylor, don't buy!

#7wodigestsundayhaikus

I'm with vapourminer on this one.

I will drink whatever I want, whenever I want it. I won't let symbols and semantics dictate when to satisfy my taste buds.

I'm a simple man.
Quit job, don't have or need much.
Long may the corn rise.

#haikuization

Thanks guys, I know about OPSEC, even my post here (kind of) risks it. But so be it. The thing is, my niece has been with me from day one. She was a little girl when I bought my first Bitcoin in 2015, and was mostly present during my numerous conversations with her daddy at that time and later on, when I was trying to turn him into a bitcoiner. I succeeded in the "coiner" part, but not in the "bit" part. He ended up a shitcoiner and traded (is still trading) endlessly since then, and even managed to triple (3x) his investment, which made him happy, but also kind of bitter, because if he had listened to me and bought Bitcoin over the years, his profits would now be closer to 50x.

So, about my niece, she's been more or less with me throughout this journey, and surely knows things that, at the time, I did not even think of keeping a secret or assumed that it would matter 10 years later. But she's a smart kid, and I've told her not to say anything to anyone about me or her daddy and our coiner status. But when we are alone, she does comment about it to me sometimes, with heart-melting admiration, as she did yesterday, and that's why I wrote the haiku.

OPSEC is good, but it's not so easy to anticipate its importance early on in the journey, especially when 1 BTC costs $100. Will it bite me in the future? Maybe it will. But I have a feeling that the few people in my life that know, will protect it for me, or will try to, at least. It's something I can't do anything about, so I've learned to live with it.



I can relate. I believe many of us have had similar issues with friends and relatives. I guess the only way to completely prevent this, would be to act in complete secrecy, completely alone, and never ever talk about Bitcoin to anyone in a way that would hint that you may be a coiner yourself. Try to imagine your life 10 years ago. You just bought, say, hypothetically, 10 BTC for $1000. Would you worry so much about OPSEC? I don't think most people would. Unless you are a complete loner, with no interaction with humans, it would come naturally to mention this to a close friend or relative, and maybe even attempt to explain about Bitcoin to them and make them buy some themselves. It's only natural to want to help loved ones by suggesting to them something you think may be successful. As for me, I remember even giving little chunks of $1 worth of Bitcoin to many of my students at that time, just to show them how it works. How's that for OPSEC? Things have changed so much since then, and those 10 BTC you (hypothetically) bought for a mere $1000 have (hypothetically) turned you into a millionaire (soon multi-millionaire)!

Aside from having a boating accident (which may not be so believable these days), what I've done is to make sure my very close circle of people that know certain sensitive information about me are aware of the implications and ramifications of spreading such information to others. So far, I have the feeling that it has worked. Only time will tell, but I believe that the recent (and especially the upcoming) Bitcoin price appreciation, has made many of us more "concerned" about certain things and practices.

I guess even our posts here in WO could potentially put many of us in an unpleasant situation, should our accounts be associated with our physical identities. I would even suggest that the mere fact that we are regular WO participants, regardless of the content of our posts and how "poor" we say we are, could be enough to cause this, should such a leak occur. And this will only become worse in the future. WO could be considered a whale honey-pot, and hence the target of malicious entities. I don't want to name names, but some of us here have mentioned purchases which put their Bitcoin amounts in the triple digits or more. So, it always helps to exercise good security practices when it comes to post content, forum access and profile management. VPN? Tor? A neighbor's Wi-Fi? All of the above? Pick 'n' mix and find what works for you. And, sadly, I find OPSEC and $100k/$1M parties to be a contradiction in terms and will likely never happen.

BTW, we're getting close to $100k again, I see. Can you imagine? 10 years ago @ $100 to now @ 100k. An average of 2x / year! Mind-blowing!

My beautiful niece,
Calling me "Bitcoin uncle". 💖
Almost stole my keys!

#sweetnesshaiku

My OCD compared the same instances of characters in the note, like "x", "r", "1", "0", "2", to see if it's a font (it is). Then it dawned on me that this is not from Earth!

Come on, Bitcoin, do something!

Thank you, Bitcoin, for doing something.

Excellent!

Has Bitcoin been tamed?
Watching the chart, I wonder.
When moon? And how soon?

Then, I self-correct.
It's not Bitcoin that's to blame.
It's LFC's posts!

Winston Churchill's words.
If you are going through hell,
You just keep going.

Saylor keeps buying.
Does he know something we don't?
No, we know it too!

Phil got sick. Me too.
Whatever does not kill you,
Makes you spend more corn!

Our lunches ain't free.
We paid with our brainpower.
Ramen's expensive!

Love, Death & Robots.
Sounds like The Wall Observer.
Black Mirror is next!

#7wodigestsundayhaikus

Exactly. And it's not just a smart-sounding phrase—it was proven mathematically in 1995 by Wolpert & Macready. I remember referring to their paper when I was doing research back in the late 90s.

Santa Fe Institute — No Free Lunch Theorems for Search

The full paper in PDF format can be found in the above link.