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Showing 20 of 58 results by Bitmeat
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Board Speculation
Re: The short term bear case
by
Bitmeat
on 18/04/2013, 15:58:30 UTC
Quote
This bubble burst in 5 days instead of 5 months. ...
My numbers would be that $100 is the new $5 for the following months.

Bubble bursting follows a double exponential rate of decay, which is the opposite of what happened in the run up. Post peak, one would expect the price halving time to increase - thus the first halving from 266 down to 133, then the second very quickly down to 66.5. In contrast to your view, I think that the having time to 33.25 will be some weeks away - if the rate of decline slows down as in a typical bubble collapse.

What is your basis for the growth rate of the bitcoin economy? A linear regression of the log closing price on Mt. Gox starting in 2010 to present suggests a bitcoin economy growth rate of 4.8x annually = 580%. That is a fantastic growth rate, but the market gets ahead of that when doubling several times in a few months.


Mt.Gox first day = 0.06, yesterday 73. No linear regression, just  (days_open/30)th root (73/0.06) ~1.26, hence 3 months double.

It is more than you think. If we continue this way, $300k is expected in 2016  Grin


You're drawing the line in the wrong place like everyone else who makes graphs on this site. End the numbers in late 2012 before the bubble started when it was around 10

And that forgets that bitcoin doesn't just go up magically because you whisper "bitcoin" in someone's ear. It gains investor confidence as more sites and companies start accepting it as a form of payment.

Unless you're serious about your belief that the total bitcoin economy will be worth 3 trillion dollars in just 3 years. In that case there's probably no point discussing it with you.
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Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: DDOS Payback
by
Bitmeat
on 18/04/2013, 14:56:56 UTC
I still haven't seen any details from any exchange to show that they actually suffered a proper DDOS.

Looking at MtGox, their server could only support <40 trades per second, so whenever it went above that, it lagged to hell and they called it a DDOS. You guys just ate it up.

Maybe. That's the first thing I'd like to know for sure.

Exactly, all I'm saying is we have no idea right now if there actually was a DDOS. We do know that when attempting to trade more than 37 or so trades per second on Mt Gox, the symptoms would be the same as what they called a DDOS.

I've done a lot of IT security work, while you cant trace "who" is doing a DDOS, its very easy and common practice for companies to publish details on the type/vector of DDOS attack. None of the exchanges have done this.
Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Bitfloor closes down, but with no interest in making things right
by
Bitmeat
on 18/04/2013, 14:50:02 UTC
You guys are so gullible. Make an exchange or bank, wait a while till its full of BTC. Take everyone's BTC. Say you got hacked. Refund a little bit to show you care. Stash your anonymous fortune.

I've met Roman a number of times, and for what it's worth, he doesn't strike me as the "steal and run" kind of guy. He's deeply vested in the success of Bitcoin and cares about it for more than financial reasons.

Usually the scammers tend not to be shifty types. You always see the quote from the victim on tv "he was such a nice young fellow, he talked so passionately about his investments"

Too early to judge, but in all seriousness, have you seen the sheer amount of hacked sites holding bitcoins in the last couple years. It's statistically impossible that that many people are that retarded when it comes to security.
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: Investment Plan
by
Bitmeat
on 18/04/2013, 14:25:58 UTC
If you start at the bottom of your list, and work your way up, skipping step 2 and 1, it's a sound investment plan.

As it is you're basically gambling with your money. Why not go to vegas and have more fun doing it?
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: Bitfloor closes down, but with no interest in making things right
by
Bitmeat
on 18/04/2013, 14:22:56 UTC
You guys are so gullible. Make an exchange or bank, wait a while till its full of BTC. Take everyone's BTC. Say you got hacked. Refund a little bit to show you care. Stash your anonymous fortune.
Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: DDOS Payback
by
Bitmeat
on 18/04/2013, 14:20:34 UTC
I still haven't seen any details from any exchange to show that they actually suffered a proper DDOS.

Looking at MtGox, their server could only support <40 trades per second, so whenever it went above that, it lagged to hell and they called it a DDOS. You guys just ate it up.
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Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Dirty Fiat Money
by
Bitmeat
on 16/04/2013, 22:22:01 UTC
...or by the family, or by their investments, or by charity.

Family and charity may be unreliable. Investments are probably OK but if investments are not a good choice, should you not be able to hold your money in currency and not have it robbed by inflation bandits?

No you should not be able to. You should either save it (let the bank invest it), or invest it yourself in a very diversified portfolio. If you hide it under the mattress or in gold silver or bitcoins, you deserve to lose it since you're basically making a bet that society is gonna fail, yet too dumb to realize all these items will also be worthless in that case.

Having a very small portion of your net worth in bitcoins or precious metals is reasonable, as long as you're prepared to lose it all. Anyone who bought-to-hold or sold bitcoin in the last 4 months has done nothing to contribute to the future of bitcoin, sorry but its true.
Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Sharing my experience on trading fiat for bitcoin at $264.70
by
Bitmeat
on 16/04/2013, 22:05:08 UTC
I was very proud to "buy" bitcoin at the peak of its "bubble" and emotionally moved.

You are an idiot and proud of it.

Quote
I am looking forward to working with some of you if I can in this next phase.

Oh, there's plenty of folk here who would love to work with somebody of your calibre.

Now that is the reaction i was looking for!

Finally!



I know this investor called pirate or something that is looking for more bright confident young folks like yourself!
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: Bottom was hit around 50 - people start to buy like crazy...
by
Bitmeat
on 16/04/2013, 22:04:17 UTC
Have to love the fact though that GOX is able to handle all this traffic now.
I mean 637,359 BTC Traded in the last 24.
Hell a week ago they could not even process 200,000 in a 24hour period without crashing.
Good Signs

I'm not sure that the BTC volume traded is actually a good indicator of the trade volume that Gox is handling.  When the exchange rate was higher, fewer BTC were traded, but that doesn't mean that there were fewer transcations.  From an order handling perspective, the server has a much harder problem processing and matching 100 orders for .01 BTC than it does one order for 1 BTC. 

Correct, MtGox can handle around 35-37 trades per second on current hardware. Once they get their new servers with the database on fast disks, this should go up to thousands. Either their exchange software is really terrible, or they have very slow/few disks at the moment for a db server
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Re: What a bull... lol
by
Bitmeat
on 16/04/2013, 15:38:51 UTC
Don't be greedy. Today is probably your last chance to get out at over 70 for the next few years
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Board Off-topic
Re: bears that dont make the bounce
by
Bitmeat
on 16/04/2013, 15:37:18 UTC
Thank you for the brilliant advice, xXxCoD_MW3_BTC_Trader420xXx9999.
I will surely keep it in mind.



I'm off my meds and want to share it with you

Thank you!
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Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Bitcoin Chart 16th April 2013: is this the bottom?
by
Bitmeat
on 16/04/2013, 15:27:39 UTC
Scammers still trying to get you to buy their coins based on starting their graphs based in 2013. Draw the line through the charts starting in Jan 2012 and you'll see what's what.
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Board Speculation
Re: Zangelbert's Bubble-o-Meter
by
Bitmeat
on 16/04/2013, 15:25:51 UTC

clearly you guys are incorrect
[size=16]so the answer to the formula is [/size]][/font](5%5-5%)%[color]/]

it is self evident in this ch[size=18]a[/szie][size= 22pt]rt[/size]

http://s24.postimg.org/6dhewsop1/CHHERT.png

BTCBTCBTC

I am up 1200% since yesterday by following arepo's posts

The man is a goddam genius. Once you learn to read his charts, and get a feel for his advanced analytics skill, you'll make some major profits!
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Re: OH GOD STOP SELLING! IF ONLY YOU WOULD STOP SELLING WE WILL ALL BE OK!
by
Bitmeat
on 16/04/2013, 04:22:13 UTC
I love how everyone keeps saying, "oh good cheap coins!" and then another hour goes by and it drops another $10 usd.  You don't have that much liquidity.  This market is crashing.  Invest accordingly.

Buying now is known in the bubble world as "trying to catch a falling knife" for good reason.
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Re: What the hell just happened
by
Bitmeat
on 16/04/2013, 04:17:01 UTC
Nope, sanity is prevailing, and Gox is even holding up for once
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Board Speculation
Re: Dirty Fiat Money
by
Bitmeat
on 16/04/2013, 03:58:52 UTC
I think BluesBrother is my favorite poster here. Common sense is hard to come by in these crazy unstable times both in BTC and outside of it. What up bear buddy!

Basically all investments are shite at the moment. Panic commodities (Gold, Silver, BTC) bounce around like crazy mofos, bonds of all type pay around the same as inflation, banks basically just bend you over and have their way with you if you keep it in savings. My money's mainly in index based stock and real estate equities all over the world, with a very small part in precious metal based equities, which I regret daily. At least my excess money is contributing to the economies, and surely they cant all crash at once! If they do, you'll want ammo, not Gold or bitcoins.
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Re: PANIC!!!!
by
Bitmeat
on 16/04/2013, 03:43:48 UTC
The bigger the font size, the bigger the loss. Poor smoothie Sad

Smart people who've held for a while and wanted to cash out would have sold at 40-50. Anything past that is basically just gambling or blind ideology
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Re: This just in: Bears got trapped... AGAIN
by
Bitmeat
on 16/04/2013, 00:15:04 UTC
Why is everybody making everything so personal in this sub-forum? Can't everybody just calm down, try to read the market and make money of the right decisions?

If you "read the market" correctly, you take money from someone else. If incorrect, someone takes money from you. This is why I don't really like commodity speculation; if you win it just means you're a coercive asshole Smiley

You also gotta remember that 100% of people on this board think they're smart enough to be on the 50% side who come out ahead. 50% of them will be wrong, and probably not be willing to admit in here on the forums.

The only way you can 100% make money is to have mined coins yourself, the older the better. Then you can sell to newer people at the bottom of the pyramid.

As a currency, bitcoin is just brilliant, revolutionary even, and I love to use it. As a commodity it has way too much in common with a Ponzi for me to touch it at this late point years after inception
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Re: SELL! SELL! SELL!
by
Bitmeat
on 15/04/2013, 23:54:14 UTC
If you think I am going to buy back in and tie up my money on some betting site I have never heard of while the price is tanking and in a bear market, you are insane.

If (and when) I won, I could potentially lose more in BTC value than I'd win on the bet. Its a bad bet.



Cmon man, I've got this sell order for $120 that I need filled... err I mean the fundamentals point towards up up up! Buy now or be priced out forever!
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Re: You are here = = = > Fear!
by
Bitmeat
on 15/04/2013, 23:36:09 UTC
The bullies were always trolling how bitcoin cant be compared to this chart..guess all bubbles pop similarly  Cheesy

All bubbles pop differently, there can be multiple bear traps, bubbles within bubbles, etc.

Markets are like Schrödinger's cat, if you observe them they will change state and not behave how you predicted. I own 0.10 bitcoin and have never sold any, so I'm just watching interestedly.