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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 26/09/2025, 09:02:55 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
anyway everything down in crypto...particularly the challengers ETH, sol, xrp...quite a red sea..

https://nitter.net/pic/orig/media%2FG1uBkdrXUAAVXhm.jpg

you are in the wrong thread
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 25/09/2025, 19:04:44 UTC
Quote
Bitcoin Resilience Tested: Price Loses Key Support Band, Drop to $105,000 Likely




What's that bearish nonsense?
$110 all down through to $108.5k has tons of liquidity for the market. This is obviously the target zone bears stubbornly try to hit.
On the other hand, there's tomorrow's expiry of CME futures at $117.4k , which i am curious about if "the gap" will be closed. It's not guaranteed, and it's a nice way to make money and/or get cheaper corn for market makers.
Bitcoin is being fucked by derivatives, but that doesn't change any of the fundamentals. Stay on the sideline (hodl) and buy when you can.

EDIT: And the other thing is, as long as there is no retail, the chance of heavy corrections (retailer's wording = "crashes") is low. It's a different market now, and that what i tried do say yesterday was already nailed by @Searing earlier today (and the other WO with whom he discussed this topic, whose name i can't remember right now).

wait until we se sub 100k  Cheesy

But yes, might be that we stop at at 108 or so.. however we are under 110k as I write, so i wouldn't hold my breath...

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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 24/09/2025, 17:23:44 UTC
⭐ Merited by Searing (8)
I'd be interested in researching this a bit more as we all know how the FTX situation ended for the market.  If we're starting to see obvious cases of entities using paper Bitcoin and not being able to cover client holdings, it is time to say goodbye to the market for a couple years.

Would a repeat of the FTX scenario necessarily play out to the downside?  

I would think so.  If a company holding a lot of coins on behalf of users turned out not to have them, it would set off an investigation as well as bankruptcy.  Assets that were being held by the company would be frozen and users would have themselves trapped in a long legal battle in hopes to recover anything.  The market would see this as a breakdown and a lot of people speculating on the price of Bitcoin would view this as a sign to exit the market.  It's best if everything is functioning as advertised.

again, IMHO if you have a recession companies who have gotten coins on the cheap will sell downward to keep their stock up imho...and lock in profits and of course their jobs

on those who play with stocks and btc/crypto for the company. Anything above 5% in a tanking start of a recession is golden. Great the Corporations are getting into

btc/crypto...but remember what goes into a corporation eventually gets sold to save the almighty stock ..as that is what determines right or wrong for direction today

perception is everything. So pretty sure with 24/7 selling ...btc will be the canary in the gold mine and get flushed first. Blackrock having a 'notion' about 1/2 a decade...now

HODL'ing is a fantasy indeed. Now btc/crypto WILL do much better then bonds in such a recession view..along with land and gold....but like land and btc/crypto it will

likely do much better then 4-5% bonds in the USA....and come back. But the 24/7 panic selling on above with 'Corp Think' will bite the price in the ass at any downturn.

Remember, I know squat and and am typing here on bitcointalk...but how it seems to me. Also a 'recession' is coming, I've seen the signs and gone thru 4 or more. So

prepare folks. Smiley

don't remind me that 3 of 4 years in BTC are mostly pain...
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 23/09/2025, 17:19:28 UTC
⭐ Merited by Hueristic (1) ,JayJuanGee (1)
I usually don't listen much to Friedman but this interview about Drugs and WW2 was really interesting, I must say...

Norman Ohler: Hitler, Nazis, Drugs, WW2, Blitzkrieg, LSD, MKUltra & CIA | Lex Fridman Podcast #481
https://youtu.be/SvKv7D4pBjE
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 23/09/2025, 10:06:27 UTC
⭐ Merited by d_eddie (1) ,xhomerx10 (1) ,JayJuanGee (1)
What would it look like if there WERE paper bitcoin at this point...

Anyone up to date with what Caitlyn whasserface is saying?

this could be another possibility: "They" managed to destroy the big bull markets in BTC and now can manipulate the price as they do with gold and other commodities...

In that case we go up when "they" want us to go up. And that probably means we all get a visit from Mr. Max Payne ...

"They" frequently try to control the price and try to act like they are in control of the price, yet I doubt that bitcoin is as easy to manipulate as "they" would like us to believe that it is, and if "they" get caught on the wrong side of certain trades, "they" are still going to suffer greatly for such (even though surely BIGGER) players are going to be hedged to win no matter what, but they still have abilities to fuck up from time to time.**

**I feel a bit like a wakko in my above response.

True, BTC is surely harder to control because of the verifiability of supply and UTXO's/ownership. But with deep pockets of infinite fiat and control over policy makers they can play the game a long time, I'm sure! ... longer than many hodlers could endure.

BUT... I think they need Bitcoin to go up in the end... that's what BTC was built for, and they will use it as such... for them it's just a new a vehicle to fleece the market ..and maybe get rid of much of the US debt...
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 23/09/2025, 06:38:16 UTC
⭐ Merited by cAPSLOCK (1)
What would it look like if there WERE paper bitcoin at this point...

Anyone up to date with what Caitlyn whasserface is saying?

this could be another possibility: "They" managed to destroy the big bull markets in BTC and now can manipulate the price as they do with gold and other commodities...

I that case we go up when "they" want us to go up. And that means Max Pain for everyone...
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 23/09/2025, 06:32:41 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
These dips are starting to get a little painful… Who could have seen this coming?!?

More seriously though, there are rumors going around that tomorrow will bring a surprise announcement to pump Bitcoin. Bitcoin finally being added to 401K plans (laws passed but not implemented yet) and a strategic Bitcoin reserve announcement seem to be the popular whispers.

Yeah, I'm starting to get concerned. Bitcoin is incredibly weak this year, not what I expected at all. Many of us are lucky we got in early and have managed to retire, make a great life via Bitcoin.

The current performance is doing nothing to attract newbies to the space though. Stocks and Gold making all time highs every second or third day. You can even get dividends with stocks. Bitcoin pretty much flat all year, floating around sideways/downwards.

September is the worst month for Bitcoin historically and Q4 in a bull run year (are we even in one) is supposed to be where the real gains come. Let’s hope Q4 treats us well, let’s just survive September and see where the last months of the year take us. I am not impressed though to be honest.

yeah, newbs probably pile in where the action is. While they are buying stocks and gold at elevated prices (sounds like exit liquidity for whales), Blackrock and other companies are buying up x of the BTC supply... That could go on a little longer I think..

I say it again, but it could well be that Q4 night be quite boring or even bad, and when everybody has lost their hopes later next year, the big pump to 260k-400k comes out of nowhere.




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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 20/09/2025, 15:09:30 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
...
in order to be good at HODL'ing btc/crypto you have to 'despise' $$$ a little bit or you crack under the pressure...so that was my mental trickery to HODL
...

This is probably one of the most important requirements for hodling!!

Experienced it myself and seen it with many others who managed to hodle through bad times

Or the thought that there are always be much more $$ (or whatever is your country currency) printed.

I think it can be both at the same time, no?


Bitcoin has come a long way...here is to another 16, then another.
...sometimes I worry about the corruption of the main idea(s), but so far whatever the game theory predicted has played out more or less how it was envisioned (albeit, maybe a bit slower).

Imho, it remains to be seen how Treasury companies would play out in bitcoin. We will probably see at least two other large treasury companies joining the fray (among the public companies) soon: XXI (J. Mallers) and BSTR (A. Back).

The game theory that's the thing. It's such a wonderful system: You can fork anytime you want and everyone is free to use that fork or another. Everybody always has a free choice. With that kind of hydra-like built it's nearly impossible to go back to a system that doesn't give you the choice like fiat..

Sometimes I think Bitcoin was invented by some time traveler or Aliens lol... But the code was to imperfect in the beginning, so I think it was just natural evolution waiting to happen

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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 20/09/2025, 09:41:42 UTC
⭐ Merited by Hueristic (1) ,Searing (1)
...
in order to be good at HODL'ing btc/crypto you have to 'despise' $$$ a little bit or you crack under the pressure...so that was my mental trickery to HODL
...

This is probably one of the most important requirements for hodling!!

Experienced it myself and seen it with many others who managed to hodle through bad times
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 18/09/2025, 14:43:46 UTC
⭐ Merited by nutildah (3) ,Hottiek (1)

well you had better start now then

Okay then, I will start the adventure tomorrow……maybe I might be able to read 3 pages  in this thread per day…so I can also read from other posts and boards…

Starting tomorrow I will post in this thread whenever I’m done reading 3 pages of this thread….

I know it’s worth reading this thread and I hope I enjoy my thrilling adventure..







... please don't !
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 18/09/2025, 14:30:28 UTC
do you see the door?
use it to protect yourself 
from old, rusty pipes


Great metaphor. Old and rusty pipes perfectly capture the creaky legacy financial system.

I think you are missing the point.


always fun when newbs take OG jokes for something else...

actually that talk was only a few years ago, so no real need to be an OG...
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 18/09/2025, 14:27:43 UTC
Uptember and moonvember coming closer.
What's in between?

Rocktober
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 18/09/2025, 14:27:12 UTC
Uptember and moonvember coming closer.

Let's go!

Rocktober soon..
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 18/09/2025, 14:13:48 UTC
Looks like the sell-the-news-boys are dumping into the buying volume of the buy-the-news-boys.
Fun to watch.

The market needed a surprise on interest rates. 50bps was needed to keep the market afloat. Volatility incoming…

I’m not sure how we get to new highs from here, but if Bitcoin doesn’t find a way in the next 2 months then MSTR doesn’t get into the S&P500 and this cycle top is in. It’s finger crossing time.

Damn you are really pessimistic...  MSTR being in the S&P is not necessary for another run-up imo


since you are quite a prediction guy, what do you think is the top this time, and also the bottom when the great crash comes...
honestly interested!
I mean you have some soma numbers in your head right?

I cannot predict how irrational the market will become. I can only tell you that Treasury companies are whales selling their coins at a premium to suckers while saying Bitcoin is going to a million…


That's nothing new. I hoped to hear more about your personal expectations. You were not shy to share your predictions about market timing so I hoped you could also share some numbers.

Nobody here knows 100% what the future looks like, but collecting thoughts from others helps to get a more nuanced picture.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 18/09/2025, 14:03:38 UTC
Today is the day that I've been saying would be the top for Bitcoin for quite some time.  I've actually been eyeballing today for basically the last 4 years.  Now that it is here I don't want to sell any Bitcoin, but I may sell a tiny bit just to stick to the plan...  There's a ton of bullish news out there and with December looking like it will be the MSTR inclusion period, I have mentally begun making excuses that my sell date should be moved to December 16th.  We will see how that plays out for me, but I've definitely started watching the exits.  

you thinking that such a prediction could be accurate amazes me actually...

What’s amazing to me is that this will be the fourth time it’s happened.

Don’t listen to me though. Watch this instead.

https://youtu.be/eCXaCSVhivI?si=M62NPB5I8NIX6tIt

We are in bubble territory already and “the Titanic has hit the iceberg.”

I think we go higher, but looking back there will be a lot of people who wish they had started taking profits here instead of trying to time the top, which we will definitely hit in the next 100 days if we haven’t already.


Thanks for the video. Watched it in full.

I think that guy has a lot of valid points but it doesn't seem that he gets the difference between crypto and Bitcoin. He also sees Bitcoin as a risk asset and gold as the safe haven.

The talk about a new form of world trade currency that is on "a Blockchain" sounds to me that that will likely be Bitcoin.

If all what he says happens, Bitcoin is likely to come out as the new world trade currency / reserve currency, which means we will be in the millions per coin.

Selling BTC at a cycle top bigly is really nice but that's only half of the gamble. if you don't get back onto the train again at the right time, you can easily lose the (generational) opportunity of your lifetime.

I think none of his arguments destroy the value proposition of Bitcoin.
If you successfully trade the cycles, great! But that's not a safe strategy for everyone. I think that would be hodling...

 



World Reserve Currency will be the currency, that underpins AI to AI transactions!

It takes great strength and conviction, to see the cycle before us, let alone a cycle at all!

I personally believe we are on the last leg of this cycle and as stated before, I will be transferring some wealth in return for hard/illiquid assets, obviously fiat first...

Guarantee you one thing, the next 3 months, will be a wild ride!



In that case it probably would have to be a POW coin. There is only one that makes sense.


Since you are already giving guarantees what is your investment advise?


If you mean how to handle this cycle?... Don't try to time to top, set a plan and stick with it!... If you are selling and planning to buy back lower, DON'T!

Besides, everyone's circumstances are different, however, the last and most important advice i can give is, think and plan 2/5/10/20 years ahead!...

No, with investment advise I actually meant the "hard/illiquid assets" you mentioned...

(Handling cycles is not so much of a problem for me anymore)
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 17/09/2025, 18:48:48 UTC

Don’t listen to me though. Watch this instead.

https://youtu.be/eCXaCSVhivI?si=M62NPB5I8NIX6tIt

We are in bubble territory already and “the Titanic has hit the iceberg.”

Brought to you by FTX and BlockFi, subscribe to my newsletter, buy my treasury company stock, etc, etc

I believe the relevant quote here is, don’t shoot the messenger.

Take a look at these two charts and tell me we aren’t about to see a repeat of 2008. Inflation has held the housing market up so far, and it seems obvious the fix for this is more inflation. That might save the housing market from massive losses, but it is going to destroy the consumer. Everything is going to be on sale in a year, including Bitcoin.




since you are quite a prediction guy, what do you think is the top this time, and also the bottom when the great crash comes...
honestly interested!
I mean you have some soma numbers in your head right?
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 17/09/2025, 14:34:38 UTC
Today is the day that I've been saying would be the top for Bitcoin for quite some time.  I've actually been eyeballing today for basically the last 4 years.  Now that it is here I don't want to sell any Bitcoin, but I may sell a tiny bit just to stick to the plan...  There's a ton of bullish news out there and with December looking like it will be the MSTR inclusion period, I have mentally begun making excuses that my sell date should be moved to December 16th.  We will see how that plays out for me, but I've definitely started watching the exits.  

you thinking that such a prediction could be accurate amazes me actually...

What’s amazing to me is that this will be the fourth time it’s happened.

Don’t listen to me though. Watch this instead.

https://youtu.be/eCXaCSVhivI?si=M62NPB5I8NIX6tIt

We are in bubble territory already and “the Titanic has hit the iceberg.”

I think we go higher, but looking back there will be a lot of people who wish they had started taking profits here instead of trying to time the top, which we will definitely hit in the next 100 days if we haven’t already.


Thanks for the video. Watched it in full.

I think that guy has a lot of valid points but it doesn't seem that he gets the difference between crypto and Bitcoin. He also sees Bitcoin as a risk asset and gold as the safe haven.

The talk about a new form of world trade currency that is on "a Blockchain" sounds to me that that will likely be Bitcoin.

If all what he says happens, Bitcoin is likely to come out as the new world trade currency / reserve currency, which means we will be in the millions per coin.

Selling BTC at a cycle top bigly is really nice but that's only half of the gamble. if you don't get back onto the train again at the right time, you can easily lose the (generational) opportunity of your lifetime.

I think none of his arguments destroy the value proposition of Bitcoin.
If you successfully trade the cycles, great! But that's not a safe strategy for everyone. I think that would be hodling...

 



World Reserve Currency will be the currency, that underpins AI to AI transactions!

It takes great strength and conviction, to see the cycle before us, let alone a cycle at all!

I personally believe we are on the last leg of this cycle and as stated before, I will be transferring some wealth in return for hard/illiquid assets, obviously fiat first...

Guarantee you one thing, the next 3 months, will be a wild ride!



In that case it probably would have to be a POW coin. There is only one that makes sense.


Since you are already giving guarantees what is your investment advise?
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 17/09/2025, 09:11:36 UTC
⭐ Merited by hisslyness (2) ,Zeunerts (1) ,d_eddie (1) ,JayJuanGee (1)
Today is the day that I've been saying would be the top for Bitcoin for quite some time.  I've actually been eyeballing today for basically the last 4 years.  Now that it is here I don't want to sell any Bitcoin, but I may sell a tiny bit just to stick to the plan...  There's a ton of bullish news out there and with December looking like it will be the MSTR inclusion period, I have mentally begun making excuses that my sell date should be moved to December 16th.  We will see how that plays out for me, but I've definitely started watching the exits.  

you thinking that such a prediction could be accurate amazes me actually...

What’s amazing to me is that this will be the fourth time it’s happened.

Don’t listen to me though. Watch this instead.

https://youtu.be/eCXaCSVhivI?si=M62NPB5I8NIX6tIt

We are in bubble territory already and “the Titanic has hit the iceberg.”

I think we go higher, but looking back there will be a lot of people who wish they had started taking profits here instead of trying to time the top, which we will definitely hit in the next 100 days if we haven’t already.


Thanks for the video. Watched it in full.

I think that guy has a lot of valid points but it doesn't seem that he gets the difference between crypto and Bitcoin. He also sees Bitcoin as a risk asset and gold as the safe haven.

The talk about a new form of world trade currency that is on "a Blockchain" sounds to me that that will likely be Bitcoin.

If all what he says happens, Bitcoin is likely to come out as the new world trade currency / reserve currency, which means we will be in the millions per coin.

Selling BTC at a cycle top bigly is really nice but that's only half of the gamble. if you don't get back onto the train again at the right time, you can easily lose the (generational) opportunity of your lifetime.

I think none of his arguments destroy the value proposition of Bitcoin.
If you successfully trade the cycles, that's nice. But that's not a safe strategy for everyone. I think that would be hodling...

 

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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 16/09/2025, 20:07:35 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
Today is the day that I've been saying would be the top for Bitcoin for quite some time.  I've actually been eyeballing today for basically the last 4 years.  Now that it is here I don't want to sell any Bitcoin, but I may sell a tiny bit just to stick to the plan...  There's a ton of bullish news out there and with December looking like it will be the MSTR inclusion period, I have mentally begun making excuses that my sell date should be moved to December 16th.  We will see how that plays out for me, but I've definitely started watching the exits.  

you thinking that such a prediction could be accurate amazes me a actually...
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 14/09/2025, 19:19:03 UTC
[...]

BTC has utility gold hasn't, like portability, absolute ownership (you can take BTC with you when you die) etc

[...]

That's an interesting property of Bitcoin, that I never really thought about. It's true, you can die and take the keys with you, which is equivalent to making a donation to the Bitcoin community, equally distributed among all BTC holders. Nice!

It can be like any memory in your Brain... yours forever, if you want.