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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 02/05/2025, 15:29:28 UTC

The Global M2 Money Supply vs BTC correlation (with a lag) is running perfectly still. $150,000+ by mid July?

I can definitely live with that.

....

I might even buy 2-3 chickens so I can have egg in my ramen every single day! ......what time to be alive!

 That reminds me, we couldn't even find let alone afford eggs to dye for Easter this year, so we used small potatoes instead.



pretty sure the kids appreciated it....
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 02/05/2025, 15:27:57 UTC

I just did a little math and looked over the MSTR NASDAQ inclusion data. I was a bit shocked at my conclusion. I think that Bitcoin will peak the week before MSTR is included in the S&P 500. This will likely be the week before the Q3 rebalancing that occurs on September 19th (it will be announced on September 5th kicking off the mother of all FOMO).

What shocked me about this was that it aligns perfectly with my prior prediction that the price of Bitcoin will peak on September 16th based on the 4 year cycle.

I think we could be seeing another perfect storm with Trump continuously mentioning August as a timeline to fix the tax code. Maybe we see the US government buy 200,000 BTC at the same time the S&P 500 funds are acquiring Bitcoin?

September 16th. Watch for it.

there is some chance that the cycles as we know them won't occur anymore... we might go up constantly over the next 2-3 years or so
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(Unknown Title)
by
Gachapin
on 02/05/2025, 15:24:43 UTC

The Global M2 Money Supply vs BTC correlation (with a lag) is running perfectly still. $150,000+ by mid July?

I can definitely live with that.

....

I might even buy 2-3 chickens so I can have egg in my ramen every single day! ......what time to be alive!

You mean 2 or 3? The profligacy... some people are shameless!

yolo
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 02/05/2025, 15:23:45 UTC

The Global M2 Money Supply vs BTC correlation (with a lag) is running perfectly still. $150,000+ by mid July?

I can definitely live with that.

....

I might even buy 2-3 chickens so I can have egg in my ramen every single day! ......what time to be alive!

You mean 2 or 3? The profligacy... some people are shameless!

yolo
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Merits 1 from 1 user

Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 02/05/2025, 06:38:33 UTC
⭐ Merited by Hueristic (1)

The Global M2 Money Supply vs BTC correlation (with a lag) is running perfectly still. $150,000+ by mid July?

I can definitely live with that.

....

I might even buy 2-3 chickens so I can have egg in my ramen every single day! ......what time to be alive!
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 02/05/2025, 06:34:16 UTC

So Nvidia is buying Bitcoin for its balance sheet and the United States is selling gold to buy Bitcoin. Arizona will create a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the next few days to start stacking Bitcoin, we’re 5% away from liquidating 8 billion dollars worth of shorts and GameStop is still accumulating their Bitcoin purchase. Sounds bullish.

kinda   Cheesy

WO retards... the new wealthy elite...
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 02/05/2025, 06:27:37 UTC

Here is a link to a video that lays out something that's happening in the Core GitHub right now, which is a little bit annoying to say the least.

Is it just me or his Peter Todd always rustling up these kinds of problems?

I think Kratters conclusion, which is these things are complicated, but when you start to see conversations being shut down, it's a red flag is pretty on point.

Sadly, this has the potential to turn into a fork. I kind of hate that it's happening right now for sure, and it sort of seems like this is why we can't have nice things.

I also can't believe that I'm seriously considering switching to Knots. Considering the goofy number of nodes that I run, it's going to be a pain in the ass.

Forgive me if this has already been posted or is being discussed.

https://youtu.be/o7kCqwR9x24


It smells a bit like the 2017 all over again. But Bitcoin was build for that. Actually, I see every fork as a healthy cleansing and a democratic process showing that the network is alive and resistant.

Bring it on! I don't mind getting some new shitcoin to sell either...
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 10/04/2025, 21:38:52 UTC
⭐ Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3)

A 90 day pause is just about right for Bitcoin to resume the bull market towards $150.000 - $200.000 range followed by a 30% summer dump with a face melting FOMO pump in Q4 2025.

oh yes shoot me more #hopium
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 09/04/2025, 02:50:42 UTC

I guess down in the high 60s before tax day... philip will be happily buying...
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 08/04/2025, 04:09:32 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


the guy who did this is latest guest on on Rogan... quite interesting

https://youtu.be/NRVEkc9lxH0
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 07/04/2025, 18:13:00 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

what will be the lowest we go before new ATH.

My bet is around 65k... and no JJG, I'm not really betting on it...

hope the bottom is in though...

but then.. we have to kill all hopes first so there might be some dumping yet to come
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 07/04/2025, 12:26:33 UTC
⭐ Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3) ,xhomerx10 (1) ,philipma1957 (1) ,JayJuanGee (1)

Is everybody having fun?


Black Monday 2.0.

Going to the gym to clear my mind.

I hope LFC_Bitcoin is doing fine, not having a mental breakdown.

Although, Bitcoin down 30% which happend multiple times during bull markets.

I’m good, not selling.

Think the bull market could be over though.

good good... that's exactly the mood we need to continue ATH's in fall..
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 04/04/2025, 00:46:25 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1) ,Hueristic (1)

Final bottom reached.

Nobody Mindrusted.
Let's go!
i purchased more.
i really would like to see a sharp move to

74 k maybe 65k
I would grab a hefty chumk

It probably is not healthy for a long term bitcoiner to be cheering for downity, when we have already had 25% downity (around these here prices) and we even had 30% downity if you count our correction down to $76.6k from nearly a month ago.  

You haven't had enough downity yet?  

Your desire for MOAR downity likely reflects that you are sitting on way too much cash, but what else is new when it comes to uie pooie?  

You seem to almost always be sitting on too much cash..  

Perhaps, the life of a trader, rather than one of an investor?   Perhaps?  Perhaps?

Edited: broke up into segments and added a few clarifications of ideas

cash is fine.

i do not mind having too much of it.

that's why you are buying Bitcoin now instead of 2012, I guess ?
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 03/04/2025, 20:54:02 UTC

everybody exhausted yet?


I guess we go up for real in fall or early winter... it's gonna happen anyways

I sure hope you’re right but I’m beginning to have my doubts. Days like today in my experience are usually followed by months of pain. Hopefully we’re just seeing tax selling and tariff panic and not a real downturn, but I’ll admit my faith is being tested. If this was my first rodeo I’d be panic selling here.

Yeah I also think pain (and boredom) until fall. Until everybody is exhausted and nobody believes in a bullrun anymore. You are almost there  Tongue

One a sidenote, cycles will probably be different from now on, supercycle or whatever but not what we had until now. Bitcoin is maturing and halving will have less and less impact, except from being a fading self fulfilling prophecy

I’m definitely almost there. I can see how the last cycle was messed up by the FTX fraud and I can grasp the concept that the ETFs pulled in investment and moved the cycle forward as a result this time. However, I want to believe this is just Trump showing us the Art of the Deal. He isn’t a guy to buy tops forever like Michael Saylor and I still have a shred of hope that Trump caused this calamity to get the US a good buying opportunity. Did people expect him to pump the price before the US buys their stack? Time will tell… I’m still targeting September 16th as the top for this cycle, but I do have my doubts.

If it's really September it would probably be a very disappointing ATH ...
How did you come up with that date btw?
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 03/04/2025, 20:50:13 UTC

everybody exhausted yet?


I guess we go up for real in fall or early winter... it's gonna happen anyways

I sure hope you’re right but I’m beginning to have my doubts. Days like today in my experience are usually followed by months of pain. Hopefully we’re just seeing tax selling and tariff panic and not a real downturn, but I’ll admit my faith is being tested. If this was my first rodeo I’d be panic selling here.

Yeah I also think pain (and boredom) until fall. Until everybody is exhausted and nobody believes in a bullrun anymore. You are almost there  Tongue

One a sidenote, cycles will probably be different from now on, supercycle or whatever but not what we had until now. Bitcoin is maturing and halving will have less and less impact, except from being a fading self fulfilling prophecy

halving should still have an impact...on miners.
If the price does not increase at least 2X between halvings and energy cost and difficulty rise/efficiency stays the same (stable), miners would become not profitable.
Energy cost is increasing relatively slowly, and it is possible that difficulty rise and efficiency improvement would cancel each other out, albeit it seems that difficulty is still rising faster for now.
I am not surprised that miners try to accumulate bitcoin as a result.

wouldn't difficulty just come down until miners are in profit again?
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Merits 10 from 1 user

Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 03/04/2025, 19:59:37 UTC
⭐ Merited by El duderino_ (10)

everybody exhausted yet?


I guess we go up for real in fall or early winter... it's gonna happen anyways

I sure hope you’re right but I’m beginning to have my doubts. Days like today in my experience are usually followed by months of pain. Hopefully we’re just seeing tax selling and tariff panic and not a real downturn, but I’ll admit my faith is being tested. If this was my first rodeo I’d be panic selling here.

Yeah I also think pain (and boredom) until fall. Until everybody is exhausted and nobody believes in a bullrun anymore. You are almost there  Tongue

One a sidenote, cycles will probably be different from now on, supercycle or whatever but not what we had until now. Bitcoin is maturing and halving will have less and less impact, except from being a fading self fulfilling prophecy
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 03/04/2025, 16:07:12 UTC

everybody exhausted yet?


I guess we go up for real in fall or early winter... it's gonna happen anyways
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 24/03/2025, 04:03:23 UTC

Weird.  Wonder what's happening next.

My take: Saylor is deploying his "new" 711 mil upon low liquidity on exchanges  Grin

About that, what do you think about these loans/bonds he's taking to buy more BTC ? And the massive holdings ?

I didn't use to have an opinion on this but now I'm a bit worried that it could crash BTC.

I understand wanting to own lots of BTC if you're an enthusiast, but maybe at some point you have enough, leave some to the rest of people ? Or you might cause BTC rejection instead of adoption.

Nah, he seems close to basically, tapping out (needed to promise 12% yield to make a sale), unless btc goes up 2x...then he would renew.
Right now, he is not able to greatly add to his stack and with the upcoming competition from, hopefully, BSR, he won't be able to add too much, imho.

even 2x this year wouldn't much surprise OG WOers I think... although it would make it possible to step up and put some ham into my instant ramen... yes... there will be signs....
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 24/03/2025, 03:56:10 UTC


Tends to frazzle my memory. But then, I'm old.

Then again I hand make these tinctures...  Well...

.. sounds weird, but there are qualities that fuck you up and make you concentrate on things like crazy at the same time.. that shit made me valedictorian ...nobody knew I was hitting two bongs before going to school  Cheesy
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 24/03/2025, 00:57:19 UTC