BTC is highly overvalued at the moment because the price is about one magnitude (ca 10 times) higher than the equilibrium price determined by the BTC acceptance (popularity) rate. I would suggest to sell now and buy back when the price is normalized.

I think I has much more fun to find a new bath even if it would not give a great profit. But I understand why others do not think so.

Hypothesis no 6: "If you nostalgically think that there was some time in the past that was more wonderful, profitable and full of great opportunities than the present era, then you are destined to think the same about the present era in some future era". If you miss 2009 in 2025, then you will miss 2025 in (for example) 2033.

Hypothesis no 7: "The greatest profit you can get from history studies, is reaching the hypothesis no 6". There could be the subject "The WINTER" in schools, or at least the subject "The crisis" that is its close relative. When I studied economics almost nothing was talked about these wonderful themes.

But the most wonderful price is 17 000 usd: this is the only price level that BTC has achieved in three different eras: first at the end of 2017 when it was the upper resistance price, second at the end of 2020 and third at the end of 2022 when it was the lower resistance price. 

There were specific periods for some price levels: the level 0.05 usd/BTC existed only in the 3th quarter of 2010, the level 1 usd existed only in the first part of 2011, the level 100 usd existed only in 2013, the level 2000 usd existed only in the middle of 2017... but since the 3th quarter of 2017 every price level has emerged repeatedly (more than just once).

The WINTER, I use this name to mark a period where the market is clearly irrational and tends to become even more irrational. Just like 2009 in the Bitcoin context (2010 and especially the second part of 2010 were the quite different season already with sharp price rices, winners and losers and some already declared that "they had missed the bus").
The WINTER is time full of potential, but the fruits are far far in the future.

Hypothesis no 3: "The investors abilities to being aware, exploit and enjoy the WINTER are the main determinants of their success".

Hypothesis no 4: "The WINTER is quite usual thing: every year has WINTERS." Hypothesis no 5: "Being aware of WINTER is unusual".

Being aware of the WINTER is not the same as exploiting it, it is possible that investor has no resources to take a position (to go long or short) in irrationally undervalued (overvalued) asset. Exploiting of WINTER is not the same as enjoying it, it is possible that the impatience to get fruits is so great that investor loses his position before the next season begins.

Some WINTERS are more liquid than others (enable to invest more resources is it). One prominent example of very liquid WINTER was the first part of 1991 in the Soviet Union where the prices of domestic assets formed only a fraction of the prices of foreign assets but the rouble/usd nominal exchange rate (instead of rising to eliminate this inequilibrium) prepares even to fall even more making domestic asset cheaper and cheaper and cheaper and it seemed that there were no end to this process.
The Bitcoin WINTER was not liquid - it was not possible to invest even hundred thousand usd into it. You had not to be wealthy to be an early Bitcoiner. But you definitely needed some other resources. What kind of resources?

At first, I have to admit that the topic name/subject "2009" is not fully true or is true only just a little bit as well as any other year (for example "2025" or "1981" or "2104"). The only excuse for using just this topic name is that we are in the Bitcoin forum and for Bitcoin it is very suitable and hopefully attracts some attention, more attention than for example "Looking for the roots of opportunity" or "The nests of black swans" - that are probably more accurate labels for the problem I will focus.

Having read the bitcointalk we have frequently met the nostalgic opinions that the first bitcoiners were not equal position relative to the followers. Other argue against them saying that we all were in equal starting point and joining the Bitcoin journey sooner or later was fully up to you (everyone had the equal chance to obtain BTCs with cheap prices). Before deciding one or other, lets trying to imagine the year 2009 in Bitcoin context. Only extremely few (probably less than thousand? persons all over the world that means 0.00001%) had heart about Bitcoin and if they try to talk about it to others then 99% did not want to listen them and were fully aware that Bitcoin is a scam, a ponzi-scheme, a lie, a (bad) joke... certainly nothing important, certainly not having investment potential ("even if it could have some usefulness in the distant future, everybody can just copy it").
Opinion 1 (or hypothesis 1): "About 99% people just follow the crowd and the leaders ("The Times", the president and so on): they have ayes and ears but nothing more". I suggest that it is so not only in Bitcoin context but in any other context as well. And not only in 2009 but in any other year as well. And in 2025 just as well as in 2009. (If I am right, it makes me sad, but I believe the situation changes in the future).

The reason why everybody was against Bitcoin in the first year(s) was not the thinking process but just the fact that OTHERS were against Bitcoin as well.
The reason why many of us is with Bitcoin in 2025 is the same.

Hypothesis 2: The Bitcoin in 2009 was (subjectively) not the same as Bitcoin in 2025. It was not even similar to it. The Bitcoin in 2009 rather resembles the shittiest shitcoin in 2025".

When Bitcoin hit $10k in 2017 it was overvalued.

When Bitcoin hit $100k in 2030 it probably will not be overvalued. All that matters is time (popularity takes time to grow).

from 500 to 50 000 took 10 years
from 50 000 to 5 000 000 will take 200 years

 

I agree somewhat, but would you ask the same question about gold? I think more people are using Bitcoin as a medium of exchange than those using gold, and the value of all gold in the world is vastly higher than BTC's current market cap (7-8 times higher actually).
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Yes, this function (money function) - gold as the medium of exchange -  is remarkable weak nowadays. It is so weak that it is indeed possible that BTC is stronger is this segment. But both are very low (may-be because BTC has so high transaction cost for everyday small payments) relative to fiat. I admit that BTC (and other cryptocurrencies) have strong competitive advantage in large payments between different countries. This is an excellent opportunity for crypto.

 

12 years ago the price was approximately 100usd/BTC, therefore the investment sum was around 1500 usd.

I fully agree with you.
If everyone understands that you are doing, then the right time is over. If everyone talks about an asset, then sell it.

Owning some satoshi in some exchange does not mean that this person accepts BTC at the same rate than (for example) USD. How many there are such persons for whom BTC carries the money functions (medium of exchange, store of value, measure of value and so on) as intensively as fiat money ? Of cause, it is extremely hard to measure, but one thing is sure for me - the percentage is not 10 or even 5. It can be 0.5, 1 or 2.

mBTC is now 109.18 usd. Therefore I have BTC 0.0009467(103.36/109.18).
My investment return (in four months) is -5.33 %.

The market can stay irrational longer than I can remain solvent. What if BTC price goes even to 130 000 or 150 000 before the crash?
If I am right, I need not to take such risk. 

There is quite interesting coincidence in Bitcoin price history: the large amount (at least quarter) of 2010 year BTCs had bought at price 0.05 usd, 2012 year 5 usd and 2014 year 500 usd. 100-fold difference between both 2012 versus 2010 and 2014 versus 2012.
If such speed had continued, the BTC price would be 500 x 100 x 100 x 100 x 100 x 100 = 5 000 000 000 000 in 2024   

Yes, yes the black swan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
For me this bird is not surprise. Her emerging is just a matter of time, and I am very curious what will be the exact circumstances that surround this.

 

Exactly ! It will be good thing for conscious investors. It is always a good thing if you can buy things cheaper.
 

Yes, there have been many many micro-level (or crypto-specific) crisis, but no macro-level economic crisis like 2008 or 1929 during Bitcoin lifetime.

I do not know how much Bitcoin acceptance rate will increase. Yes, it is possible that it stagnates or even fall - I think the BTC price will follow that sooner or later (or rather sooner).

Yes, Bitcoin is interesting thing, very interesting , but I have seen repeatedly that this quality does not cause huge popularity.
 

All people who predict the numerical value of Bitcoin price... all people with no exception... predict remarkable price increase (to near one million usd). All people think almost the same. What we can conclude from this ? ?