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Topic
Board Mining support
Re: Where to fix your Asic miners.
by
MZ4
on 29/11/2021, 22:44:44 UTC
I am looking for Innosilicon A10 repair center in Europe. Anyone has an idea where I should send them?
Have tried asking the european repair shops listed at Zeusbtc website?

https://www.zeusbtc.com/RepairCenter/

I messaged them and I didn't have a reply after 1 month unfortunately.
Post
Topic
Board Mining support
Re: Where to fix your Asic miners.
by
MZ4
on 29/11/2021, 22:01:45 UTC
I am looking for Innosilicon A10 repair center in Europe. Anyone has an idea where I should send them?
Post
Topic
Board Mining support
Topic OP
Innosilicon A10 Pro+ 6G two hashboards not hashing
by
MZ4
on 12/10/2021, 20:07:24 UTC
Hello,

I have the following problem: One of my A10 Innosilicon suddenly the two boards are not hashing. I start the miner all three green lights from the boards light up green, and after that they stop. Up here everything is normal. After the miner finds IP and connects only one hashboard comes alive and becomes green. The other two never light green. I have checked also the dashboard and the miner doesn't show chain 1 and 2 and shows only number 3.

I have tried to reset it number of times and it didn't change anything. During the past when I had a similar problem it worked fine after a reset.

Do you have any ideas what I can do to fix this?


Thank you.

Post
Topic
Board Mining speculation
Re: Antminer S9 questions and data
by
MZ4
on 28/02/2021, 08:12:20 UTC
I think you mean the k version is bad not the j

From what I have read on other posts I think the same. S9 and j versions I think are ok, but I NotFuzzyWarm has a different experience.

Philipma1957 what is your view on the above questions as someone who has mining experience and knowledge?

They would run good with brains +

down clock to 13th and lower power.

or auto tune at 1100 watts a miner.

They simply don't break at 1100 watts and they do break at 1400 watts.

If you can get them with psu's for 300


1 unit doing 12.8  or 13 will earn 3.80 a day before power

1100 watts = 26-27 kwatts or 1.62

so 3.80-1.62 = 2.18 a day you need 138  days.  you could start to sell them at day 100 in lots of 10 if you could still get the 300 for them. it would hasten over all roi.

If I had the power and could afford to lose 90 x 300 = 27k - 15k = 12k I would take a shot.

as I think worst case would be a 10k to 12k loss and a huge fail has to happen to go that bad.

You are the man Smiley
Thanks a lot, crystal clear and concise.
Would you trouble to overclock them with immersion cooling?
I understand that immersion has to come after 100th day since if I decide to sell there will be no value for them if they are immersed.
 
Post
Topic
Board Mining speculation
Re: Antminer S9 questions and data
by
MZ4
on 28/02/2021, 08:10:18 UTC
I think you mean the k version is bad not the j

From what I have read on other posts I think the same. S9 and j versions I think are ok, but I NotFuzzyWarm has a different experience.

Philipma1957 what is your view on the above questions as someone who has mining experience and knowledge?

They would run good with brains +

down clock to 13th and lower power.

or auto tune at 1100 watts a miner.

They simply don't break at 1100 watts and they do break at 1400 watts.

If you can get them with psu's for 300


1 unit doing 12.8  or 13 will earn 3.80 a day before power

1100 watts = 26-27 kwatts or 1.62

so 3.80-1.62 = 2.18 a day you need 138  days.  you could start to sell them at day 100 in lots of 10 if you could still get the 300 for them. it would hasten over all roi.

If I had the power and could afford to lose 90 x 300 = 27k - 15k = 12k I would take a shot.

as I think worst case would be a 10k to 12k loss and a huge fail has to happen to go that bad.

You are the man Smiley
Thanks a lot, crystal clear and concise.
Would you trouble to overclock them with immersion cooling?
 
Post
Topic
Board Mining speculation
Re: Antminer S9 questions and data
by
MZ4
on 27/02/2021, 20:39:34 UTC
I think you mean the k version is bad not the j

From what I have read on other posts I think the same. S9 and j versions are ok.
Post
Topic
Board Mining speculation
Re: Antminer S9 questions and data
by
MZ4
on 26/02/2021, 10:45:14 UTC
Please read the various s9 support questions about the s9j -- it is a horrible version....

thank you for your answer. The S9j is a horrible version or both?
Post
Topic
Board Hardware
Topic OP
Antminer S9 questions and data
by
MZ4
on 24/02/2021, 22:35:14 UTC
Since the price of the new miners are ridiculous high I was thinking to buy 70-100 S9 Antminers  that I have sourced.
I have the following questions regarding the Antminers S9's:

1) What is considered a good price for the S9?
2) What is the most stable version? Is the 13.5 THz the 14THz S9J?
3) What is the life expectancy that see those miners will have, since the coming months there are tons of S19 and other modern technology miners arriving in the market and the current difficulty skyrocketing?
4) I have calculated the break even point at around 110 days in a price around $300 and the price of 0.06 cents. Does it make sense to purchase with that ROI?
5) Is there a trustworthy overclocking firmware? I have read all the relevant topics from the forum but I didn't found anything that seems trustworthy. Does is makes sense to immerse cool them?

Any other advice is highly appreciated and thank you in advance.
Post
Topic
Board Mining (Altcoins)
Re: In the path of the lost GPU
by
MZ4
on 20/02/2021, 13:35:44 UTC
I have a quote for a quantity of 3080. The price is $2k. Do you thing should I proceed?
Post
Topic
Board Mining speculation
Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread...
by
MZ4
on 14/02/2021, 19:15:56 UTC
I have not had enough sleep for days, but I don't think my math is that bad, 15.5 to 21.4 means we had a 5.9 hashrate increment, if not for the halving we would (in theory) have had double that which is 11.8, so 15.5T + 11.8T = 27.3T  or 76%. I think your mistake was multiplying the total difficulty of 21.4 by 2 to make up for the halving, keep in mind that 15.5T of that is the old difficulty which has nothing to do with the theoretical new difficulty, do I make any sense?

The instant after the halving, it suddenly took 2X the work to mine the same amount of BTC. So if the purpose of the comparison is in relation to profitability, then I think multiplying the post halving difficulty by 2, or dividing the pre-halving difficulty by 2, is correct.

But in terms of using diff to estimate hashrate, there is no correction. The block reward amount does not come into the equation for diff correction, so 21.4T before or after the halving still produces the same estimated network hashrate.

As far as the ability to produce insane amounts of miners quickly, I don't think it would be as hard as you think for them to ramp up. And with this extended time of high profitability, they have plenty of time to secure contracts with all those giant >100MW farms, and expand their manufacturing capacity if required. They can't deliver those 37k miners until October because they have to wait for the chips.

The flip side of this, maybe Bitmain decides not to expand production even though demand is sky high, and then sell fewer miners at a much higher price point. Just seems like in the past, they do the opposite, and sell a ton of gear at prices low enough to try to really hurt their competition.



We have reached a point of gear not getting more efficient.

S19pro has 1 speed setting uses 29 watts a th
S17pro has many settings and the vnish set to 39th  gets 25 watts a th.
That is a road block to hashrate growth also missing chips will slow rate.

   In order to increase hash rate you need more power infrastructure.
Mining won't build a new dam as it is costly.
Mining can be leveraged to grow solar arrays.
   I am thinking the next stage will be more solar arrays which were funded by mining.
If so we can have strong growth since a mining farm can say we help the environment as we increase solar footprint and lower carbon footprint
This is going to happen slowly but surely maybe this bull run will be the one that sparks this type of investment off. If so then we can have large hashrate growth as it would be decreasing carbon fuel burning.

 I am not a tree hugger anti coal/gas/oil. guy I look at this from a practical viewpoint. I have seen and help build profitable solar arrays. That would scale 10x even 100x the 125k-watt field we run.

If global warming is real then this is the way to go.
If global warming is fake and the sun is simply a bit hotter then this is the way to go.
Why is that?
Sun will cool and the cheap solar power will reduce and like short sighted morons we have been buying all the coal the gas and the oil.

So either way solar is smart and carbo is stupid as fuck.
We could continue mining coal and storing it just in case the suns drops it's output. And we could be building cleaner coal plants just in case we need to switch back to them.
Oil and gas can stay in the ground for now.

Of course this would piss off gas and oil guys but they had a good run.

Also they purchased tons of solar tech so I am only telling you what will happen in 20 or 30 years from now.

All this relates to mining diff since mining will not grow without power. (40,000x the power for a gpu to a s17pro) Those power savings will not happen again.  Maybe just maybe 10 watts a th is the best we will ever see.

I am not an expert on solar panels but with some friends that we have researched on that, the problem is that you need power 24/365 per day and solar can not give it you. You need batteries to be able to store energy and have a much bigger solar panel installation to do so. That is why everyone goes near geothermal energy or hydroelectric because this can be constant supply.

Post
Topic
Board Mining speculation
Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread...
by
MZ4
on 14/02/2021, 01:51:06 UTC
Feb 2020 to Feb 2021
15.5T to  21.4T = 38.06%

Keep in mind that the last year had the halving event, so the easiest thing to assume here would be doubling that increment, so it's more like 76% rather than 36%, I believe with a very high probability that the trend of difficulty will keep rising regardless of price, but will rise a lot slower than it used to.

It can't do 114% like 2018, can't do 158% like 2019, and can't do 76% like 2020, so maybe 50%? this will take us from 21.4T to maybe 32T, 50% of the current hashrate is about 80EH, each 1EH is 10,000 S19 pro, so 80EH is 800,000 S19/S19 pro, just about a million mining gears, I would be very surprised if we could go beyond that.

Taking the 1/2ing into account would make 2020-2021 15.5T to 42.8T = 176%

In the 1st quarter of 2019, Bitmain had a revenue of >$1 billion. At $2500 a miner, that would be 400,000 miners in a single quarter. So between all the manufacturers, I don't think it is that far-fetched to think we're going to hit another 100% increase.

Thank for your reply. Logical what you say.

As I understand to make a "safe" bet I will calculate the following 3 scenarios:
1) No mining difficulty increase for the next 2 years.
2) 50% increase for the next year and 60% for the next one.
3) 100% increase for the next year and 100% for the next one.

Does this sound logical?

I understand that this I very generic way to do it with many assumptions.
Post
Topic
Board Mining speculation
Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread...
by
MZ4
on 14/02/2021, 01:17:17 UTC
Thanks for your detailed answer. I understand completely the factors and the risk that you have mentioned but I need at least to make an educated guess , so I can base my scenarios on those guesses.

I can help you with the numbers and then feel free to play with them as you see fit, I will only go back to as far as 3 years ago, as I believe values from previous years are very, very different and probably make little to no sense today (in fact even values from less year make little sense, but do hold a lot more weight than the old era when a thousand S9s would make a whole lot of difference)


Difficulty values from 15-2-2018 to 15-2-2021


Code:
2.874674234
2.967853338
3.007383866
3.2335814
3.290605989
3.381698122
3.462542391
3.494288843
3.511060553
3.796188328
3.839316899
3.943557223
4.022059196
4.138123233
4.143878475
4.219142059
4.306949574
4.415593342
4.940704886
5.024546461
5.077499035
5.172892177
5.363678461
5.199615302
5.178671069
5.595791656
5.949437372
5.949437372
6.19783992
6.389316884
6.505039002
6.72722547
6.971177231
7.019199231
7.031329606
7.152633352
7.364268059
7.454968648
7.427362643
7.182852314
7.183013626
7.184404943
7.175974755
6.653303141
6.194015746
5.646403852
5.621092246
5.106422925
5.248509607
5.618595849
5.862614532
5.883988431
5.836655169
5.814661936
5.894008795
6.061518831
6.06408179
6.07184605
6.071216044
6.068891542
6.368919654
6.379265451
6.379562392
6.393023717
6.357721118
6.353030563
6.554050172
6.702169884
6.703779555
6.704632681
6.747104133
7.459680721
7.411481914
7.409399249
7.868124125
7.93471322
8.58744535
9.064159826
9.033161131
9.013786946
9.890230142
9.985348008
10.01679887
10.18348843
10.68557238
10.77199666
10.95842971
11.89059496
12.01767456
12.7598194
12.87476027
13.00809167
13.06910849
13.69148004
13.66989171
12.72000527
12.79578964
12.97323597
12.95595155
12.87684209
12.89283761
12.94859342
13.031658
13.79878383
13.8190097
14.77636754
15.20380671
15.46609894
15.52113495
15.54674577
15.50935056
15.48691344
16.0767726
16.55292397
14.14355904
13.91252405
14.3974826
14.71521406
15.6248434
15.95865233
16.0798316
16.10480749
15.21370306
15.13804325
14.47708913
13.73235211
14.26597408
15.78474431
15.78461889
15.78421755
16.57039522
17.34594887
17.30915518
16.84756161
16.87170719
16.94780233
17.34094534
17.55799304
17.44533271
17.34599781
19.14829089
19.3146564
19.3007089
19.29808719
19.52968552
19.99733599
17.86527354
16.78777961
17.04059881
17.59680106
18.15852838
19.15715472
19.1446679
18.67016856
18.60003415
18.59959305
19.36516671
20.6074183
20.73708601
20.82353115
21.38445104
21.43439596


Percentage representation of each adjustment of the above values:


Code:
1.331956946
7.521405447
1.763511764
2.768247978
2.390641204
0.9168538
0.479974924
8.120844708
1.136101987
2.715074769
1.99063861
2.885686943
0.139078543
1.816259447
2.081169909
2.522522398
11.89220798
1.696955745
1.053877685
1.878742695
3.68819372
-3.058780657
-0.402803513
8.054587397
6.319851363
1.68098E-11
4.175227545
3.089414481
1.811181393
3.415605465
3.626335438
0.688865003
0.172817072
1.725189302
2.958836236
1.231630736
-0.370303434
-3.292020885
0.002245794
0.01936954
-0.117340091
-7.283632284
-6.903148491
-8.840983248
-0.448278349
-9.156037625
2.782509093
7.051263496
4.343054554
0.364579645
-0.804441795
-0.376812271
1.364599697
2.842039125
0.042282463
0.128036853
-0.010375847
-0.038287269
4.943705299
0.162441945
0.004654783
0.211007025
-0.552205039
-0.073777302
3.164153033
2.259972203
0.024017158
0.012726037
0.633464267
10.56122114
-0.646124261
-0.028100514
6.191121038
0.846314748
8.226285083
5.551295613
-0.341991937
-0.21447846
9.72336268
0.961735621
0.314970105
1.664100137
4.930372813
0.808794163
1.730719522
8.506376099
1.068740444
6.175444716
0.900803206
1.035602974
0.469068181
4.762157675
-0.157677097
-6.94874885
0.595788829
1.386755612
-0.133231368
-0.610603236
0.124219274
0.432455703
0.641495005
5.886632588
0.146577192
6.927832452
2.892721613
1.725174671
0.355849349
0.165006088
-0.24053396
-0.144668353
3.80875867
2.9617348
-14.55552463
-1.633499688
3.485769707
2.206854294
6.181556946
2.13639857
0.759332763
0.155324271
-5.533157905
-0.497313571
-4.366179313
-5.144245652
3.885874523
10.64610253
-0.000794557
-0.002542604
4.980783318
4.680356995
-0.212116908
-2.666759675
0.143317924
0.451022212
2.319728507
1.251648597
-0.641646922
-0.569406781
10.39025315
0.868826969
-0.072212033
-0.013583499
1.200110297
2.394562249
-10.66173242
-6.031219879
1.505971658
3.26398299
3.192212707
5.499489413
-0.065180999
-2.478493458
-0.375649598
-0.002371485
4.116077469
6.414876856
0.629228298
0.416862515
2.693682861
0.233557184

Simplified figures:

Feb 2018 to Feb 2019 :

2.8T to 6T = 114.29%

Feb 2019 to Feb 2020

6T to 15.5 = 158.33%

Feb 2020 to Feb 2021
15.5T to  21.4T = 38.06%

Keep in mind that the last year had the halving event, so the easiest thing to assume here would be doubling that increment, so it's more like 76% rather than 36%, I believe with a very high probability that the trend of difficulty will keep rising regardless of price, but will rise a lot slower than it used to.

It can't do 114% like 2018, can't do 158% like 2019, and can't do 76% like 2020, so maybe 50%? this will take us from 21.4T to maybe 32T, 50% of the current hashrate is about 80EH, each 1EH is 10,000 S19 pro, so 80EH is 800,000 S19/S19 pro, just about a million mining gears, I would be very surprised if we could go beyond that.

Thank you very very helpful information.
Post
Topic
Board Mining speculation
Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread...
by
MZ4
on 14/02/2021, 00:01:56 UTC
...
Difficulty however is the big unknown factor and it troubles me, how I should calculate it and what can be the worst case scenario about it.
To be able to calculate my difficulty scenarios, I have take as reference the difficulty for the previous 2 year and copy paste it so I can have a valid case.
...

Historical difficulty has no effect on future difficulty, to the extent that using history to suggest what will happen in the future would be far from accurate.

Some people like to say there is a hard link between price and difficulty.
Clearly the past few months have proven how wrong they all are Smiley

There are a number of factors involved, and most of them cannot be predicted with any accuracy:
1) Availability of new miners
2) Electric price
3) Electric availability (e.g. in china there are seasons each year)
4) BTC Price
5) Availability of old miners to simply be turned back on
6) Availability of old miners for sale at reasonable prices
7) Scam price of old miners - and those stupid enough to pay them

No doubt some can come up with more factors.

Two of the above have their own whole random list of things that affect them
1) and 4)

Alas the only thing you can guarantee, is that BTC price and difficulty will go up, down and sideways, but with a long term trend of going up.

Thanks for your detailed answer. I understand completely the factors that you have mentioned but need at least to make an educated guess , so I can base my scenarios on those cases.
Post
Topic
Board Mining speculation
Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread...
by
MZ4
on 13/02/2021, 23:37:43 UTC
The last days I am trying with some "home made" Excels to calculate the profitability of Cloud Mining vs Asic Mining for the BTC.
I am interested to see if it makes sense some offers that I have received for the first or the second scenario.
Difficulty however is the big unknown factor and it troubles me, how I should calculate it and what can be the worst case scenario about it.
To be able to calculate my difficulty scenarios, I have take as reference the difficulty for the previous 2 year and copy paste it so I can have a valid case.

The point that I would like some help are:
1) Do you believe that the above way is a proper way to calculate the difficulty? I have taken 2 years reference since the cloud contacts are for 2 years, and I believe also that after 2 years the Asics if I buy them will not have any sense to mine with them.
2) What is the worst case scenario that I should price in?
3) I know that all the Asic manufacturers are sold out until September - October next year. How this will affect difficulty? Do we know the capacity they have?


This thread I think is the right one to ask. I have read the terms of NotFuzzyFarm and I think it is ok. In case there is a need to delete it or relocate it just let me know.
Post
Topic
Board Mining (Altcoins)
Re: In the path of the lost GPU
by
MZ4
on 04/02/2021, 17:19:06 UTC
Hello again, after a lot of search and calls and emails, I have managed to source some AMD 5700.
Do those cards worth to invest at a big quantity ? I am mostly interested for ETH mining.

i hope you got them.

Lol no. The price now is 1300.  Undecided Huh
Post
Topic
Board Mining (Altcoins)
Re: In the path of the lost GPU
by
MZ4
on 01/02/2021, 22:11:17 UTC
Hello again, after a lot of search and calls and emails, I have managed to source some AMD 5700.
Do those cards worth to invest at a big quantity ? I am mostly interested for ETH mining.
Post
Topic
Board Ελληνικά (Greek)
Re: Φορολογηση Κρυπτονομισματων Αξιας 70.000€ [ΒΟΗΘΕΙΑ]
by
MZ4
on 28/01/2021, 12:52:45 UTC
Ένα χρήσιμο νομίζω άρθρο από ένα μεγάλο λογιστικό γραφείο.

https://www.capital.gr/arthra/3521757/kruptonomismata-kai-forologia
Post
Topic
Board Hardware
Re: Why all ASIC manufacturers are left out of stock?
by
MZ4
on 24/01/2021, 13:06:53 UTC
. But I can not understand why they are selling to Riot and not to small clients when they can get much more money from the retail clients.

Bulk sales have been always everyone's favorite, especially when both bulk and small pay the same, even better when the bulk buyers pay in advance, dealing with 1 client with 30k miners is a lot easier and cheaper than dealing with 15k clients for the same 30k miners, it's common sense.

Quote
Also does anyone has an idea what is the MOQ to be considered as a "large" client?

It used to be easier back then, nowadays with these massivly funded whales, i bet your order total needs to be a couple thousands of gears if you want to sit down with their sales manager.

Thank you again for your answers. I am not so sure the profit margins on the retail can be the same  or worse that wholesale. However it seems that you are right, since the story proves what you say.

What would be the possible solutions to this, for the retail hobbyist. Thinking loudly it might be no sense:
1) Group buys.
2) Cloud mining.
3) Form a DAO for mining.
4) ICO for mining.

Each of them has the pros and cons. Any other thoughts?

Post
Topic
Board Hardware
Re: Why all ASIC manufacturers are left out of stock?
by
MZ4
on 24/01/2021, 10:00:52 UTC
I wonder how is it possible all the Asic manufactures to have been for 2 months almost without a stock and if anyone has any information about it? I am thinking that with crazy market they should be selling 24/7 like hot bread. At least for whatever batch they can produce, something that is not happening and I can not understand the reason. Ok the silicon is rare and the companies who produce the chips have many more clients etc. But is it possible to be left so easily out of stock?


Riot alone has an order of over 30,000 miners, and they will receive the last batch by October 2021, this is one company out of the many large industrial-grade mining orders that hit Bitmain in late 2020, Bitmain staff and robots are probably working 24/7 but there is only so much they can do, the production of mining gears is capped by chips production from TSMC, large companies like Intel, AMD and Apple can hardly get enough chips for their production, Bitmain, and the other mining manufacturers are the "small fish in a big pond".


Quote
Also does anyone have heard something about when they will open their sales again?

Nobody knows, but we know it's very unlikely to be before September, I mean even if they re-stock next month, chances are you won't get the gears until the end of September, and that is being very optimistic, the Aug batch was sold in no time, I am pretty sure Bitmain only put a small portion of their products for the public as a "courtesy" to its small clients, but with whales like Riot joining the mining industry, small miners will be ignored and your will only option would be over-paying the resellers, which isn't something you want to do before thinking twice 10 times.

Thank you for your answer. I understand what you say. But I can not understand why they are selling to Riot and not to small clients when they can get much more money from the retail clients.
Post
Topic
Board Hardware
Topic OP
Why all ASIC manufacturers are left out of stock?
by
MZ4
on 24/01/2021, 03:19:15 UTC
I wonder how is it possible all the Asic manufactures to have been for 2 months almost without a stock and if anyone has any information about it? I am thinking that with crazy market they should be selling 24/7 like hot bread. At least for whatever batch they can produce, something that is not happening and I can not understand the reason. Ok the silicon is rare and the companies who produce the chips have many more clients etc. But is it possible to be left so easily out of stock?

Also does anyone have heard something about when they will open their sales again?