Since market prices are essentially an aggregate of investor psychology, it will probably require a capitulation first. That means that enough people still hanging on "hoping that it'll turn around" finally give up and sell. Unfortunately, that means more downside first.

Yup, investing is all about buying when everyone else is starting to panic and sell.  You will probably never "paint the bottom", but that's not what matters. You have to be a contrarian to make money: when others are fearful, be bold.

Unfortunately have to agree with you.  Just look at the majors (like ETH) which have already made lower lows.

Of all times to buy BTC, now is actually one of the better moments.  The froth in the price has come out and it's much more reasonable. Noone knows if the price has finished it's decline. But there's no doubt this is a better time than just several months ago.

Definitely on a nominal basis. But that isn't what matters. It's percentage basis that counts and 2018 will be nowhere close to the biggest drops we've seen.

It does indeed look like a lower-low, lower-high.

Yeah, the only green in cryptos would be BTC shorts on Bitcoin Futures (e.g. Chicago Mercantile Exchange).

If BTC buyers are doing so with excess returns from the market, then you'd expect a decline in equity markets to also trigger a decline in BTC. But we are not seeing any evidence of that (yet).

In fact, the reverse is actually more of what you are seeing. The big decline in BTC from December last year to local bottom on Feb 6 preceded the decline in the SP500, not the other way around.

Doesn't look that way.  The SP500 is down 100 points in the last two days.  (That's massive, roughly equivalent to 1000 points on the Dow.)  BTC prices?  Almost no change, either up or down.

Both of these assumptions are flawed:

(1) All that it means that a coin is #1 is that the market capitalization is the largest. That does not mean more opportunity for an individual investor. It may mean more liquidity than a much smaller coin, but since ETH is #2, it has plenty of liquidity too.

(2) Nominal prices may vary a lot, but again that does not mean more opportunity for an individual investor. That's because the variation in price in ETH is just as much on a percentage basis.

Many people have been comparing Bitcoin to digital Gold. But that is not the way they are trading, in terms of asset classes. When gold rises (like in recent months), Bitcoin sometimes moves with it and sometimes not.  In other words, the market participants are largely independent.

In that case, you can think of Bitcoin as actually a diversification from Gold. Splitting your money and buying both will reduce your overall volatility exposure.

They may have misinformation, but just the fact that TV exposure increases mindshare is probably good for Bitcoin.

Experts in branding and marketing will tell you it can take 5+ exposures to an idea before it becomes 'sticky'. If TV adds 2 or 3 additional exposures to that count, in the long run it will benefit cryptos.

Excellent. Glad to hear you think that. The more people that "give up" like you do, the more likely it is that crypto prices will form a durable bottom. That's the nature of markets.

Appreciate the concrete example, nhathongkehoc. A lot of people just say "make quality posts", but its easier to understand what that means by actually seeing it.

ETH has been over-performing BTC for a while now. The recent under-performance is just reverting that basis spread.

Sony has a TV show called StartUp that features cryptocurrencies pretty heavily (although they mis-represent it somewhat).

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt5028002/

I guess a sinking Bitcoin price brings out the best in us, huh?

Really?  Seems like plenty of long timers still posting...

Exactly. Taxation is a form of implicit legitimization. So you want your country to tax and regulate it. That's what the South Koreans did. It's good for Bitcoin and crypto in general.

Sure, that's the hope. In the meanwhile, transaction fees have at least come down to a more manageable $2 USD or so. Not low enough to enable "buying a cup of coffee", but certainly better than the $30 - $50 fees of a couple months ago.