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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
aesma
on 04/05/2025, 01:15:07 UTC

Another Frenchman kidnapped and with a finger amputated held for ransom for crypto, this time the father of an unnamed "rich crypto entrepreneur" : https://www.bfmtv.com/paris/paris/paris-le-gerant-d-une-societe-de-cryptomonnaies-retrouve-sequestre-un-de-ses-doigts-sectionne_AN-202505030361.html (link in French only)

Worrying trend.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
aesma
on 22/04/2025, 16:36:38 UTC
⭐ Merited by bitserve (1) ,JayJuanGee (1)

Is Bitcoin recovering or is it just fiat dumping?

That's the 90000$ question. I live in euroland but had decided some time ago (years) that I would focus on BTC price in dollars, both because it is the metric everybody uses but also because I would like to retire in a country outside Europe where the dollar is the reference.

However if the dollar is being destroyed that's another story.

I always was uneasy with people talking about very high dollar values for BTC in a short time, as to me that would not mean that BTC has increased that much in value, but rather that the dollar has crashed, we may be experiencing the start of that.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
aesma
on 22/04/2025, 11:10:11 UTC

My LN node has been very active today, no idea why. I usually see these movements when the price is fluctuating heavily, that's not the case today though.

I had my 2nd biggest forward ever happening today as well. Here's the notification from my telegram bot

Quote
💰 Forwarded 0.41071514 bfx-lnd0 → LOOP.

110k sats in profit today. I wish I could keep that pace. Normally, my monthly profits varies between 200 to 300k sats.

well 3300k sats vs 300k is a nice goal.

for a months earnings.
Yeah, I wish. Now, most of my expensive sink channels are drained and need to be rebalanced.

Take that ~0.4btc forward to LOOP that I mentioned earlier. Now my node will try to rebalance that channel with a max-cost of 85% of its profits, every 5 minutes, until all the sats are on my end again.

How much BTC do you have in your channels over all ?
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
aesma
on 18/04/2025, 22:47:56 UTC
⭐ Merited by Hueristic (2)

12 years is possible, then...wow.
They will come up with efficient error correction schemes, I think, so qbit accumulation might be the limited factor.
Interestingly, this would break EVERYTHING, like anyone's bank account, etc.
Maybe this explains why gold is appreciating, although it is a farfetched idea.
After all, you cannot quantum-break a piece of metal, UNLESS, AI would make alchemy possible, Smiley

To tell you the truth I'm still not sure they are not just dealing with randomness and they are basically herding cats.

But when you think about it if you can distill randomness fast enough then you can find any answer so the error correction is actually the real computation.

They may be a snake eating their tails. Wink

I think it is highly possible that the closer they get to the answer the more exponential the problems become, similar to reaching the speed of light.

Yeah what is meant by error correction is running the same computation over and over and running stats on the results. With millions of physical qbits you would run thousands in parallel.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
aesma
on 18/04/2025, 10:47:34 UTC

Quantum computing research firm Project Eleven is offering 1 BTC to anyone who can break Bitcoin's cryptography.

Quantum computing research firm Project Eleven is offering 1 bitcoin (worth around $84,081) for its first "Q-Day Prize," a global prize that will go to the first team to crack an elliptic curve cryptographic (ECC) key using Shor's algorithm on a quantum computer within a year.

"The goal of the prize is simple but urgent: quantify the true threat that quantum computing poses to Bitcoin core cryptography," the firm wrote in a statement on Wednesday. Quantum computers pose potential threats to Bitcoin primarily through their ability to break cryptographic algorithms that secure the network.

As Project Eleven notes, Bitcoin uses ECDSA for transaction signatures. Quantum computers, using Shor's algorithm, could theoretically derive private keys from public keys, compromising wallet security. The firm estimates that more than 6.2 million BTC, worth nearly $500 billion, are at risk.

"We have no clear idea how close we are to a quantum ‘doomsday’ scenario for existing cryptography," Alex Pruden, CEO and co-founder of Project Eleven, said in a statement. "The Q-Day Prize is designed to take a theoretical threat from a quantum computer, and turn that into a concrete model."
Full news source

A prize in bitcoin for destroying bitcoin, how dumb is that ?

Why would only 6,2 million BTC be at risk and not all BTC ? The rest are in multisig wallets ?
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
aesma
on 16/04/2025, 23:31:32 UTC

get well philipma1957

I've got another kind of issue, the clutch on my car is dead and I have to wait weeks for someone to change it (at an eye watering cost). Meanwhile I must drive back from vacation in a few days, and getting here was challenging, like getting uphill on the highway slowing slowing slowing...
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
aesma
on 16/04/2025, 22:07:41 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

So the tariffs are supposed to balance trade, replace income tax, bring back manufacturing, pay back the debt, and now also pay for the Bitcoin reserve ? It's a bit much isn't it ?
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Merits 11 from 2 users

Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
aesma
on 05/04/2025, 18:01:01 UTC
⭐ Merited by El duderino_ (10) ,JayJuanGee (1)

Scott Bessent worked for Soros and helped architect the moves hat resulted in Black Wednesday in Great Britain.

Such interesting times.

Apparently he's already looking for an escape hatch : https://newrepublic.com/post/193634/donald-trump-treasury-scott-bessent-tariffs-quit
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
aesma
on 31/03/2025, 08:51:32 UTC

I miss my cat but won't take a new one as that would hamper my travels.


Richy_T : I feel like a Ledger Nano looks more classy than an "old thumbdrive", and if you look at it you'll notice there is no USB A port (and it has a screen and buttons).
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
aesma
on 31/03/2025, 02:22:12 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Yeah and learn about backups...

and how flashdrives suffer bitrot

Dip looks tasty sub 81k

Oh no we're poor !


There can surely be a dilemma regarding how much to share, and then setting up the inheritance too, whether she would end up with all of your  stuff, or if you might have some other heirs in mind.

Another thing is that trust can sometimes be difficult and it can sometimes disappear, so sometimes we want to have systems in place in which our spouse does not have an incentive to either kill you or to fail/refuse to act in your own interest in terms of making sure that we live long.  It is difficult to know the answer, but your idea of setting up some joint accounts and even accounts for care of the kids might not be a bad idea, but if the amounts get to be too much, then the wife could run off with the funds and things like that.

Frequently if you are in a relationship long enough, you can get some sense of the trustworthiness of the other person, yet we have a society that is problematic when it comes to property rights and/or even the creation of bad incentives related to money, wealth and value.  Surely there are some cultural differences, too.. so not all parts of the world are the same in regards to these kinds of matters, even though surely wealth can have tendencies to corrupt the minds of people on both sides... so sometimes there could be value if each of the spouses have their own wealth, but frequently there can be wealth disparities that might cause one spouse to have what the other spouse has and potentially attempt to achieve through evil and/or deceptive means.

I guess the best way is to find the right person but that's easier said than done.

What I'd like to avoid is :

- getting ruined
- losing my eventual kids. Divorce is one thing but the kids have to stay in my life (when they're kids I mean)

I wasn't thinking about getting killed, I guess I want to avoid that too (or tortured by thugs hired by the wife)
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
aesma
on 30/03/2025, 22:58:29 UTC

Yeah and learn about backups...
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
aesma
on 30/03/2025, 18:50:55 UTC

So, it's official: we're having the worst Q1 of the cycle's top year in Bitcoin history.



Such a pathetic start to what should have become the final and the greatest year of current cycle. If we're following the 2017 pattern (which I believe we're doing) we should face 5 consecutive months of green dildos and euphoria. Slight decline then and another Q of Bitcoin glory and a facemelting final rally.  Cool     

P.S. choppa soon  Grin
P.P.S. don't you dare to mindrust  Tongue

Interesting chart. 3 red months in a row is relatively common, 4 and 5 are rare, and 6 never happened. So April is anyone's guess, if I was a trader I would short BTC on the 2th though, it will probably be bad. As well as the stock market and not just the US one.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
aesma
on 30/03/2025, 15:50:57 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Stock market lost another $1 trillion yesterday because of Trump announcing new tarrifs, it almost entered correction/ bear market territory.

Bitcoin should making new ATH's just like gold, unfortunately it is not seen as digital gold but as a highly speculative asset that follows the stock market., It doesn't matter how bullish anyone is.

This could be more disappointed than previous bull martket, the usual 4 year cycle is dead and burried instead Bitcoin has entered the so called super cycle.

Won't be shocked short term to $65k before $200k later this year.

Preferably not that low but I do understand what you meaning

Trump is using the same trick when he was previously president using tarrifs to tank the market in order to buy-in cheap stocks for him and his rich entourage.

Difference between than and now is they add Bitcoin to their portfolio.

Although, Trump doesn't give a rat ass about his MAGA, the average supporter is stupid, arrogant and a fat fck.

Trump is squeezing every dollar out of this opportunity by scraping the bottom and than...pump pump pump!.

I'd like to think that you're right but to me it doesn't look like it. Trump probably knows he's not good at trading. He managed to bankrupt casinos after all. So he likes to get cash given to him, through fraud and corruption if necessary, and not invest any of his own money. So he has no money to put in the markets to buy the dip he created. And his policies might well tank some companies for a long time, starting with Tesla of course.

As I see it even the "tech bros" that flocked to his inauguration are probably going to be losers in the end, because if global trade goes down, they make less money. If retaliatory tariffs are levied against them, they're screwed.

Don’t get married.

but I realize we could live in a different culture and in some cultures I can understand why you may not want to show all your cards right away.

I'm French so right away talking about money is a huge taboo. On the other hand our divorce laws aren't that bad, If I own something outright before marriage there is no way it gets taken away in a divorce unless I purposefully changed the marriage contract to share everything (which you have to be stupid to do). French women aren't that into marriage anyway, but if I find a woman elsewhere marriage might be mandatory, maybe even sooner than reasonable, in that case I would be very careful about laws, marriage contracts etc.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
aesma
on 30/03/2025, 14:15:37 UTC
⭐ Merited by vapourminer (1) ,Hueristic (1) ,JayJuanGee (1)

I guess it's human nature. Nothing against women, but they do tend to favor security in the present time (profits lock-in), rather than future potential profits (delayed gratification, with the associated risk -- which appears very high if they don't understand how Bitcoin works). So, yes, I can understand their way of thinking, and I know that it may cause friction if they know certain things about coins and wallets and such. So, I choose to keep it to myself, and only disclose what is needed to justify certain actions.

I'm single right now. My family members know I'm into BTC, my father already wants me to sell and tells it all the time, and he's not interested in getting any money, he thinks it would be good for me...

Let's say I find a woman one day, when things get serious/kids are involved I would want her to know about BTC, the plan is that I would live off my stash by then so I'm not going to pretend I still have a job (well, maybe, but for other reasons, like having "me time" ), however I'm thinking telling her the real size of my stash would be a bad idea. So my idea, giving her a smaller number, half, or a third (my stash isn't that big that it would make sense to stop working if I only had a lot less, until BTC is much higher of course). Not just saying but having the rest in a colder wallet and not touching it, and really using the fake number as if it was real. That way the lying is minimal.

What do you think ?
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
aesma
on 25/03/2025, 15:03:01 UTC

Why choose such negative scenarios?  Sure I mentioned $55k could happen as if it were not too likely, but still I mentioned that it could happen, and even with the SBR, it sounds like it would take some time for that to be established.

There are positive scenarios and negative scenarios, and the negative scenarios don't really seem very likely, and by the time we get through 2025 and half of 2026, then maybe we will be pondering if even 5 digits are going to be possible again.. ?  depending on how much BTC's spot price might be able to drag up the 200-WMA in the coming 6-18 months.

I'm trying to understand Sailor's strategy in case of a pullback. Using cash in the company to buy BTC was one thing, but now his company doesn't generate as much cash, and is on a downhill slope. If he relies so much on new money when things are good, he's not going to get any when things are less good, so I only see selling corn as his fallback. And it all looks more and more like a Ponzi.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
aesma
on 24/03/2025, 04:16:31 UTC

Yeah but let's say we have a dip to the number JJG was talking about, 55K, what happens with StrategyB ? Surely it would need to sell coins, unless some savior bails it.
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
aesma
on 24/03/2025, 02:15:36 UTC

Weird.  Wonder what's happening next.

My take: Saylor is deploying his "new" 711 mil upon low liquidity on exchanges  Grin

About that, what do you think about these loans/bonds he's taking to buy more BTC ? And the massive holdings ?

I didn't use to have an opinion on this but now I'm a bit worried that it could crash BTC.

I understand wanting to own lots of BTC if you're an enthusiast, but maybe at some point you have enough, leave some to the rest of people ? Or you might cause BTC rejection instead of adoption.
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Re: [FREE RAFFLE #3] Icarus Custom Card🔐🎰
by
aesma
on 20/03/2025, 21:32:05 UTC

13 - aesma

 Wink
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
aesma
on 20/03/2025, 21:29:14 UTC

Quote
"We're ending the last administration's regulatory war on crypto and bitcoin, and that includes stopping the lawless 'Operation Choke Point 2.0.,'"

Quote

Jesus. Even when the words sound positive, Bitcoin crashes whenever Trump says anything about it.

Gosh...people are calling every little wiggle a "crash".
That said, if you are 50X long or short, then a 2% wiggle wipes you out   Tongue

Yeah. BTW are you really a whale if you use 40X leverage ? Looks more like a casino high roller...
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
aesma
on 20/03/2025, 00:22:54 UTC

87K, nice candle.