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Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (15GH/S per Unit)
by
altoidmintz
on 27/06/2014, 19:49:10 UTC
Or switching to p2pool Wink

This would be my guess.

Sheesh...can't even dump my shares at this price...guess I'm not the only one waking up to the grim reality.  Looks like your words are being heard mister Puppet.

Can't dump my shares bc Havelock malfunctioning...says I don't have any shares to sell
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Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (15GH/S per Unit)
by
altoidmintz
on 27/06/2014, 18:45:35 UTC
Just me or is Havelock buggin...?
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Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (15GH/S per Unit)
by
altoidmintz
on 25/06/2014, 23:09:26 UTC
...
What do you do with ASIC and the historic cases which refute this claim?

Which ones are those?

Asicminer had increasing returns to scale for a while. Its growth outpaced the network even with sub100% reinvestment. I believe it's not the only case either although I would have to look around a bit.

ASICMINER was selling overpriced mining gear to ignorant/starry-eyed miners.  It was mining with self-made chips and miners, and the competition at the time of greater-than-network-growth was nominal.

Got it. So basically we need to start building our own chips.

Also, could we not play up the marketing due to our p2p pool integration? We could argue a value added not perceived merely through divs.
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Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (15GH/S per Unit)
by
altoidmintz
on 25/06/2014, 20:08:59 UTC
...
What do you do with ASIC and the historic cases which refute this claim?

Which ones are those?

Asicminer had increasing returns to scale for a while. Its growth outpaced the network even with sub100% reinvestment. I believe it's not the only case either although I would have to look around a bit.
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Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (15GH/S per Unit)
by
altoidmintz
on 25/06/2014, 16:00:29 UTC
...
Quote
Now, will someone please answer my question. Puppet sort of answered it, but not really:

I already did a bazillion times. Like here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=310783.msg7347749#msg7347749

and here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=310783.msg7411291#msg7411291

Great! Yes. That is what I meant when I said, "Puppet sort of answered it but not really..."

Specifically, the point you make:

A 100% reinvestement strategy will not pay out a satoshi in dividends ever but will also not be able to increase the hashrate at the same pace as the network; the mining revenue as % of investment is simply lower than the difficulty growth, so your share of the network and therefore,  share value will simply slide over a long time until approaches zero and thus you end up with ~0% ROI.  Its like buying a unprofitable miner and using all your revenue to buy more unprofitable miners.

THIS is where you lose me. In short, I don't believe this and would like to hear the case for it.

If a reinvestment strat was expected to ~0% ROI why would any rational actor ever do it?

Are all miners irrational or are your numbers off?

What do you do with ASIC and the historic cases which refute this claim?
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Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (15GH/S per Unit)
by
altoidmintz
on 25/06/2014, 13:03:06 UTC
He says, "No reinvestment..." which is out of step with reality to begin with!
...

No its full reality for the next ~3 months. If the current network growth keeps up, its gonna be reality for longer, potentially for forever.
...

...
so here is a prediction: friday he will suggest further witholding dividends to accelerate paying off the loan  "speed up "reinvestments". That way he gets his money back, he gets to pocket another round of hardware purchase kickbacks and increases his exuberant hosting fees.  Clueless shareholders will rejoice even though the final result of this is that they  will not even come close to  the best case return I projected.

Alternatively, although it ammounts to pretty much the same: cryptx will announce a new security and offer existing shareholders a paid "upgrade". Just another way to get more BTC from the suckers since his mining gear is rapidly running out of steam.


LOL!!!

Contradiction. Just as I called. Yes, this is turning out the way I called. CryptX has to and will do something along the lines of reinvestment. Contrary to Puppet's insulting insinuation that CryptX will do something deceptive, however, I think CryptX will do something beneficial. On the grounds that he has continued doing so in the past. Usually when he is quiet for a while he speaks with a new and better plan than even expected.

Now, will someone please answer my question. Puppet sort of answered it, but not really:

Korb do you think if we re-adjust the div share to be a smaller %, perhaps ~ 10%, it is still to late? Or would we be able to recover with such a strategy in your opinion?

Puppet, feel free to chime in on that as well.
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Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (15GH/S per Unit)
by
altoidmintz
on 25/06/2014, 02:22:08 UTC
Puppet,

I am starting to think that all BTC mining operations are like a dog chasing its tail in terms of turning a profit. Let's assume that difficulty will go up as you say and that PETA will not make a profit. Do you think that all Bitcoin mining operations will also end up in the same situation?

[...]

I don't mean to encroach on the question posed to Puppet, but I can answer this from experience.

Yes, developing and maintaining a mining operation is a exactly like a dog chasing its tail. It's a cycle of finding better hardware to temporarily outpace difficulty...which ultimately increases the difficulty...which leads you back to finding more efficient / large quantities of hardware. It doesn't matter how large or how small the farm is, this same cycle will have an effect on all participants in one capacity or another.

This cycle is so vicious that there will be a period of time when only miners with unlimited, free energy will profit.

Heck, it hasn't even been two years since ASICs have been released and we're already pushing into "4th Generation Chips" territory. The product lifecycle we're working with is insane!



Korb do you think if we re-adjust the div share to be a smaller %, perhaps ~ 10%, it is still to late? Or would we be able to recover with such a strategy in your opinion?

Puppet, feel free to chime in on that as well.
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Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (15GH/S per Unit)
by
altoidmintz
on 24/06/2014, 19:22:35 UTC
Don't be fooled, Puppet has his own agenda, he is not wasting is time here out of good will trying to prevent people from losing their money...

Putting accusations to the side, I still disagree with his modelling.

Where is the reinvestment in his model?



That gives this result



No reinvestments for another 3 months, and cryptx NAV would be ~0.017 BTC / share...


He says, "No reinvestment..." which is out of step with reality to begin with! He models reinvestment REVENUE, but not the beneficial effect of SPENDING that fund.
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Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (15GH/S per Unit)
by
altoidmintz
on 24/06/2014, 19:15:15 UTC
...I really think cryptx needs to either substantially lower hosting/admin fee's and/or get a couple of actual chip geek's on the payroll developing his own chip if this project is really going to flourish...

+1
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Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (15GH/S per Unit)
by
altoidmintz
on 22/06/2014, 16:43:14 UTC
No rational actor would go that long without reinvestment anyway. There is a reinvestment fund for a reason! At the point in time in which the fund ostensibly would max out, we can expect reinvestment to occur. CryptX wouldn't just let his reinvestment wallet collapse.
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Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (15GH/S per Unit)
by
altoidmintz
on 22/06/2014, 16:41:30 UTC
I always said my simulations where very (very) optimistic.

Now lets continue being optimistic without ignoring the current reality, and lets assume the current hashrate spike is just a one time anomaly and after the upcoming  ~25%  adjustment,  network growth will reach a record low average of 7%/week and decelerate further by 3%. It doesnt get much more optimistic than that:



That gives this result



No reinvestments for another 3 months, and cryptx NAV would be ~0.017 BTC / share, and thats still assuming record breaking reinvestment efficiency.
In reality fair valuation is probably around half that, or around 1/10th of its current price.

Ive seen lots of idiocy in the security forums, but this one takes the cake.


Lol. Reality check dude. You're forecast predicts a rapid and dramatic div drop - something which has NEVER ACTUALLY HAPPENED.

In fact, divs have consistently risen.

Try modelling reality next time, not just whack arbitrary numbers.
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Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (15GH/S per Unit)
by
altoidmintz
on 20/06/2014, 21:33:07 UTC
June 20th, 2014 - Dear unit holders,

...

We announced to further examine and experiment with p2pool last week. We have set up our own p2pool node ( http://pool.petamine.co:9332/static/ ) and after several days of testing we can confirm that it is running stable and are ready to direct the entire PetaMine to p2pool.
Therefore we are issuing a vote whether or not to switch to p2pool. The vote will only be valid for current unit holders and held until Wednesday, June 25th 2014 - 12:00 GMT. Votes will be weighted based on the amount of units of each individual unit holder. Based on outcome, we will direct our hashrate to p2pool.

Click the link below to place your vote:
https://nl.surveymonkey.com/s/5KVLXD3

Take a look at our public p2pool node (0% fee, so you are welcome to join):
http://pool.petamine.co:9332/static/

...



+1
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Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - NEW IPO, NEW HARDWARE, 1,500 TH/S HASH RATE
by
altoidmintz
on 14/06/2014, 16:01:42 UTC
1) stop dividend payment until we have reimburse our loan

Disagree!
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Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - NEW IPO, NEW HARDWARE, 1,500 TH/S HASH RATE
by
altoidmintz
on 10/06/2014, 21:32:03 UTC
I'm a bit surprised with how cheap shares are going for tbh.

Nobody is buying on Havelock.  As far as I can tell all of the securities are slipping (at least the ones I watch are).

It wouldn't hurt to try getting on other exchanges at this point. We are big enough we can do it. Also, getting direct sales from the Peta-Mine website is a possibility. We are getting large to the point that Havelock volume, while not bad, isn't sufficient to stimulate significant growth.
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Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - NEW IPO, NEW HARDWARE, 1,500 TH/S HASH RATE
by
altoidmintz
on 09/06/2014, 16:27:48 UTC
...Also, BTC is expected to increase to 5000 by the fall...

wat
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Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - NEW IPO, NEW HARDWARE, 1,500 TH/S HASH RATE
by
altoidmintz
on 08/06/2014, 03:25:04 UTC
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Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - NEW IPO, NEW HARDWARE, 1,500 TH/S HASH RATE
by
altoidmintz
on 02/06/2014, 13:41:47 UTC
Quote
To have a better view about current unit holders dividend / reinvestment preference, we are opening a vote where every unit holder can submit their preferred ratio. The vote will only be valid for current unit holders and held until Thursday, June 5th 2014 - 12:00 GMT. Votes will be weighted based on the amount of units of each individual unit holder. Based on outcome, we will adapt reinvestment/dividend strategy.

AWESOME! Even though it may produce little to no effect, THIS IS TRANSPARENCY and we appreciate it.

For myself, I'm content with any reinvestment amount under 60%. I'll be voting to reinvest 50%, even as a vote of confidence, but also because it falls in my acceptable range.
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Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - NEW IPO, NEW HARDWARE, 1,500 TH/S HASH RATE
by
altoidmintz
on 01/06/2014, 16:44:09 UTC
50%reinvestment the rest divs minus hosting, which will be lower now that BTC price has jumped up

my div guess .0021

I haven't run the numbers to verify that div estimate

BUT

I can confirm hosting cost will be significantly lower this time due to fiat/btc spike.
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Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - NEW IPO, NEW HARDWARE, 1,500 TH/S HASH RATE
by
altoidmintz
on 30/05/2014, 20:37:01 UTC
If i could vote, i wold give big resounding NO to 50/50, we should have that loan paid back as quickly as possible by putting 100% towards it so that reinvestment's can start sooner

If i could vote, i wold give big resounding NO to 50/50, we should have that loan paid back as quickly as possible by putting 100% towards it so that reinvestment's can start sooner

I'm just guessing here, but I'm thinking my votes would counter yours.

Here's an idea for accounting

http://piratepad.net/4IuFS2gHeU

Since there is no public source for share-ownership. fill in the shares you own, you can do so anonymously. Let's see whether it adds to 30% of total shares or more.

I'm down. Revised:
http://piratepad.net/4IuFS2gHeU
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Re: [HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - NEW IPO, NEW HARDWARE, 1,500 TH/S HASH RATE
by
altoidmintz
on 30/05/2014, 15:57:58 UTC
Why does it matter how many shares are sold in IPO? We now have 15GH/share, so what would be the benefit?
The more shares sold in IPO, the less CryptX has to pre-finance, we currently pre-financed 964 BTC. If and additional 10,000 shares are sold in IPO, the loan would be reduced to 530 BTC, with complete IPO sold out, this would mean, no loan has to be paid back.

Ah ok that makes sense. It would have been more motivating for investors if we were clearer about this early on imho.

It was mentioned, in Prospecuts, and this post of CryptX:
We suggest to read the Prospectus in detail, depending on how many shares are sold in IPO, we can deploy a certain amount of hardware.

Quote
Depending on the quantity of units sold, one of the following scenarios will unfold:



Call me dumb, but I really don't see anything about pre-financing in there.

In any case, just because it appears in the prospectus doesn't mean that potential investors "get it." Whatever happened to our marketing effort?