Hmm maybe this could be an interesting discussion. I think the end game is an interesting discussion but that a single company like KnC or Gox will destroy bitcoin if they fail I find boring.

Lets say bitcoin become the global currency. All the mining is in the hands of all countries different goverments. What can they actually do, sit down together and discuss like they try to do now regarding Ukraine and vote to do some kind 51% attack. Anyone have any idees? My guess is that they at that point have past the point where they want to shutdown bitcoin. And they wouldn't be able to print more money would they?

The bitcoin foundation forcing regulation upon us would for me be the worst move ever, mainly because I view regulation for most part as the opposite of freedom and also becuse I think the small group of people regulation would be even more subject to political pressures and bribes etc.. than the companies working in the space.

Just my thoughts.

I guess you like to think you are apart of the solution to this, trying to fill up a page every day but I actually think you are apart of the problem, pushing every other interesting KnC discussion away.

But this is kind of funny. That would be the day when the Swedish government bailed out a bitcoin company. In someway I guess we have won if that happens, bitcoin have then become to big to fail! :-)

But anyway are you interested to know why the Swedish government or sometimes EU do give grants to some companies that set up their operations in the northern part of Sweden. Maybe that is a bit of topic, but is is certainly more intresting to discuss than this:

With these transfer fees we need a new banking system! :-)

Well if they are after "liars and scammers" isn't this thread a weird choice to spend your time on. Not saying KnC will succeed which is not given but they are not exacly east european gangsters with fake names and a phony companies running away with all the money and leaving no trace.

Bashing failures saying like "you promised me a bitcoinminer and I got a coffee heater six months late etc..." makes sense if you are angry but at some point you need to either let it got or actually do something about it and that you won't do wasting your time here just writing random angry comments.

Me personally I am worried about the difficulty level, manufacturing delays, bitcoin price etc. and that my investment will not pay off (in bitcoin or fiat) so I do my own calculations from time to time to see if I should cancel my order or not, and I havn't yet, maybe I do, but that is a risk I take. But I am not the least worried that they will run away with all the money and outright scam me. That is kind of a big difference. Maybe it is because I live in Stockholm I feel that way, could be different if I trusted my money to some random company on the other side of the earth, (which I would not do in the first place). So maybe people see thing differently from the other side.
Anyway they have done some misinformation for example about keeping your coins ready etc., but it is not exactly the same as the fake company running away with your money scams you can easily find if you want to spend your life protecting people on bitcointalk. :-)

Yes I think the Avenger's pics are funny too. It is like the guy icebreaker who hade Avenger's role in some other threads. It's just such a wierd way to spend your life but people should do what they want.

Yeah it is to little and mixed information coming out of KnC so they certanly spread some FUD themselves. :-)

I am a long time lurker on bitcointalk, but usually newer post anything. I sometimes have a look at this thread to read any updates on the neptunes, I have ordered some. The thing is this thread is quite useless for discussing for example the resent 'tape out' since every other post tries to spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt like your posts. It's silly to deny that FUD isn't the reason for all your pictures an comments on every other page. And I think you should have a place to do that if i makes you feel better, I am not trying to take that away.

But I am so curious about the reason for it. It must be such a large part of you life. Have you lost money on KnCminers and have made it your lifes work to do this or do you get paid for it or are you just bored? I don't understand it.

And all other thread seems to have on or two Avengers also. It makes you think that all manufactures have paid a few people to thrash each other treads. Maybe it is similar to rooting for the home team in football and booing the other team or is it just that this community just have so many people being scam out of money they cannot afford to lose.

Anyone more than me that think it is weird. But in some way funny.

So the price of Bitcoin does not matter. I have seen this statement here so many times so I have to ask, do you all pay electricity with a fixed bitcoin price?
Since the margins over electricity get slimmer and slimmer at least for me it matter alot. Am I missing something?

But you are right it would come down to a probability, a perfect storm. I wonder what is the risk that this will happen before our sun dies? It would be fun if someone manage to calculate it.

Yes but isn't it a finite number of maximum zeros.

So it could be always possible of the number of possible input combinations are even greater.

And the input combinations are the nuance, all bitcoin addresses and all combinations of all possible transactions from all possible bitcoin addresses that can fit within a block.

It is a bit late here so i could have missed something.

edit: And all possible combinations of transaction sizes.

For any possible input you say, that would be a perfect storm.
Any combination of all made transactions plus any miner bitcoin address plus the nuance. That is a lot of combinations. :-)
Someone can probably calculate if it even theoretically possible. Maybe start with if it is theoretically possible if you assume there are no new transactions, just combinations of all bitcoin addresses and the nuance.

Posting quotes from EU-VAT pages is not the same as understanding them. But now I don't really believe you are a liar, I am sorry for calling you that, now I think you have tried to understand EU-VAT but just did not get it.

But you should never go full retard.


We living in the fantasy world called EU pay VAT everyday, don't be ignorant pulling something from EU-VAT pages you don't understand and start calling us dumb-asses.

And I don't care about AMT. I didn't post because I have something against them, I posted to stop you from spreading lies. I am actually happy you have bought from them. And I am curious to see how it turns out.

Yes, fraudulent is probably the wrong word, ignorant is better.

I have no idea about other AMT claims but why are you trying to support the claim that you don't need to pay VAT in EU? You are just spreading lies.


This is just not what VAT is. EU VAT is a value added tax on goods and services within the European Union (EU). Just google it.


This is also a lie.

Why are you saying these things? I you have no clue just use google and spend 5 minutes on it instead of posting here.

800TH, that was much much lower than I expected. Could it be a case of understating the numbers?

Haha this is funny. Could not resist posting in a thread I don't really belong. I live in the EU and I can confirm we do have VAT here in the EU. Companies not collecting VAT from customers (customers not being a corporation) is committing tax evasion and they do have to state the VAT on the invoice and not just include it in the price. This whole AMT thing quite funny and I am looking forward to see what is going to happen. Will they ship or will they run or will they maybe be charged with tax evasion.

edit - And I could add, if this is not an EU-product shipped from EU but instead a product shipped from the US, VAT will be collected at customs. If you manage not to pay VAT, you are commiting tax evasion, there is no way around this. This specific statement from AMT is fraudulent.

Datacenter availability, that's an interesting tought.
I agree with your post and we don't have any solid data so this is all going to be guesses of some sort.
22PH for BFL in Q2 could be a good guess (on the safe side I hope).

Do anyone have any ideas about Black Arrow? I read somewhere their first batch was going to be 8000 units, sounded like a lot of units/preorders to me at least if that meant the number for X-3 since I think they are now on batch 2. Anyway that's 16PH in Q1 if all is going according to plan. And maybe another 16PH for Q2 for batch 2. But I have no source for this.

There are three batches, one which they named "existing customers only" and we named "batch 1", one which they named "batch 1" and we named "batch 2" and one which they named "batch 2" and we named "confusion". 1200 units each to a total of 3600 units.
Maybe we should just use the KnC names to make this easier for us all to understand. Existing customers only, batch 1 and batch 2.

Yes 20PH next July is smoking some weird stuff but so is 2000PH i guess.

I don't think the end game calculation will be a good prediction for the next 6 months. But it is interesting. But I guess you need to include the price end game for bitcoin also in that calculation. I also believe that the end game of mining will be mining companies with employees wanting pay, stockholder wanting dividents, replacement cost of equipment etc... so I electricity won't be the only cost it must cover, but it will of course be the largest one. 

I believe that in a 6 months timeframe estimation of production capacity and the current orderbooks will propably give the best estimate. I could be wrong of course.

But back to BFL is there any information, excluding from Josh who I think might over promise a bit, of how large their orderbook is and how large their production capacity will be when/if they start delivering. Is there any past estimation before the conversion to Monarchs?

Puppet of course these numbers will be off but I think it would be worth the effort just to get the right order of magnitude. I would say the different views people posting here have of total hashrate in july differs from 20PH to 2000PH. We must be able to close that range a little bit.
Even if the conclusion is something like 100PH to 300PH (could be something different) I think it would have been worth the effort.

Cointerra is to low. I remember reading somewhere that they have batches of 1000, could it just be that darcimer's posting just is the number of units not the hashrate, meaning we double the numbers.

Regarding BFL, are volumes of >10x (18000 units) really realistic? This is question not a statement. Even if Josh thinks he can produce and sell 1000 monarcs every day, there must be a more realistic number for us to close the range between 20PH and 2000PH i july. One assumption could be that BFL will only be able to push on half hashing power of KnCminer before Q2 and set BFL to something like 7500PH TH in Q2. I might be completly off here. Discuss.

Great thread! I have been looking for this. Just using 30% diff change is not realistic in the long run and probable not in this timeframe either.

Let me start with some easy ones:

Thash:         4200 Thash
Origin:              KnCMiner
Product:              Neptune Batch I (customers only)
Expected Delivery:   Until Q2
Scanario:              Realistic
Source:              https://www.kncminer.com/categories/miners
Reasoning:      Probable going to be shipping early Q2 (since they expect to ship all three batches before end of Q2. They have sold 1200 with a low estimate of 3Thash so let's assume they run at 3.5Thash. 1200*3.5 = 4200.

Thash:         4200 Thash
Origin:              KnCMiner
Product:              Neptune Batch I (new customers)
Expected Delivery:   Until Q2
Scanario:              Realistic
Source:              https://www.kncminer.com/categories/miners
Reasoning:      Same reasoning as above.

Thash:         4200 Thash
Origin:              KnCMiner
Product:              Neptune Batch II
Expected Delivery:   Until Q2
Scanario:              Realistic
Source:              https://www.kncminer.com/categories/miners
Reasoning:      Same reasoning as above plus I assume that they will eventually be sold out.

Or maybe you being sarcastic ;-)