
what i see? bitcoin climbing the stairs.
the price increases by approximately 10-12% with each step it climbs. perhaps this bull market will be different from the others in this regard. we know that price volatility has decreased and market cap has increased. therefore,
we may need to be prepared to change our definition of a “bull market.” if the price continues to climb by two more steps, we could see an ath between 150-155k.
What is your definition of a bull market that is needing to be changed?
We are in a bull market until we are not, right?
We been in a bull market since about November 2022, yet we might not have had realized it until either mid-2023 or perhaps as late as October/November 2023.
Perhaps at some point, we will go back to being in a bear market? Yet maybe the bear market is skipped this cycle? Is that your definition of a change in the bull market?
Maybe if the BTC price breaks below the 100-WMA? or even comes within 25% of the 200-WMA those might be signs of a transition from a bull to a bear market?
I doubt that guys here agree on the definition anyhow. Some guys seem to think something like a 10% correction constitutes a bear market, and sure others how other definitioins that might have both a quantity factor and a time factor.
For me, I tend to think that going from bear to bull and then from bull to bear could end up having errors so that by the time we might recognize that we had been in a bear market, for example, then we might end up transitioning back into a bull market. I am not clear in my own definitions except to consider that there is both a time and a quantity element so it might not be easy to know which one we are in during a transitionary period or a potential transitionary period.
in fact, a bull market is still a bull market. but when we say “bull,” we may not be thinking of the big, rapid rises that we associate with other times in the market.

as we know, when the process was complete and we looked back, there were weeks and months when the price rose significantly at the end of each cycle, and times when it fell significantly. we didn't need formulas, moving averages, etc. to determine when we were in a bull market. everything was right there.
and if someone said “bull market,” this is the kind of process that would come to mind. no one could have predicted that a bull market would last since 2022, i suppose. that’s the change for me.
https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/we know that the regularity of the bitcoin graph will increase, but we may not have considered how this will affect the bull-bear cycles.