That would probably be outrageous, much bigger scandal for sure. Theymos would end up on at least -3 over it at least.

I'm really hoping this topic isn't just because you didn't want to pay $1 to teleport your rank again, lol.


What happened? Absolute train wreck.

To be fair I cringe thinking about the bicointalk vs altcoinstalks thread over there and this topic just reminded me of that. So it's now in the sorting box instead, out of public view, where nothing ever get's sorted.

I think someone else already said but the scandal in deleting posts/topic is resolved with users using common sense and just reporting their own post/topics for deletion, often with the intellect to modify the content to "delete" so it's easier for mods to identify, which happens all the time for reference sake. But I did laugh about users paying for this feature, which would give the impression that the patrons/royalty over there paid up because they wanted that feature. As far as I know, no-one did, they did it just to support the forum and/or wear the badge. Similar to copper member, the only regular rank that is purchased is express rank, which is similar regarding posting images and links.

So that just leaves this topic, which definitely wasn't intended to be a comparison between this forum and another -  in order to appreciate this forum somehow (did I get that part right?) - but ultimately is centered around that theme exclusively in both OP, as well as inevitably the discussion, despite best intentions it seems. Never thought I'd see the day when a user here is using that forum as an example to appreciate things here, but I guess that day is today.

I'm glad to hear the gesture is well received. I didn't want other to think it was coming across as simply trying to promote something else, but instead show recognition where due etc. It wasn't a very difficult decision to be made to be honest, I recently requested access for myself and other global mods to translator membership group (previously still in the hands of inactive 1st president), and when processing applications it seemed obvious to update things to allow transporting of translator status, from a respectable alliance at least 


Also 2nd President tbf, not just a workhorse 


I guess the post you're looking for is the "tagged and flagged" one, effectively over some light-hearted trolling and critical questioning (don't ask me what the screenshot was of, can't remember anymore, but software probably). Probably a neutral could of sufficed for that, in more of a diary-style format for members who are into that sort of thing, but this is Lauda afterall. I think eddie13 tried to question Lauda over it if I'm not mistaken, during the period where mosprognoz got involved and then imploded into blackmail and eventually kicked out of DT lol. Those were the days, at least at -2 it was more interesting, but Lauda's neg didn't last long either.

Did I miss anything

Fyi for any alliance based translators here, over on the other forum it is now possible to teleport your translator status, for any AOBT members wishing to do so. Hopefully this can be understand within the context of the respect the forum has for this alliance. If anything it's an opportunity to post portfolio and broaden your opportunities, as well as be officially listed as a Translator, hence a few of you have already joined, but more are welcome if interested 

Regards,
-dragononcrypto
(2nd Pres of ALTT)

I think mine would be more like sub $25K, but only really based on the "where is this going" and "how long is this massive trading zone going to actually last for", also think it's pretty damn unlikely tbf.

If it weren't for reducing some exposure at the start of the year then I think it'd be the similar if we returned to around $40K... but then again this would be at the 200 Week MA at this point so would be a great long-term buying opportunity as long as you have the dry powder available. Obviously if you don't, then I get how this would be stressful, and I'd feel stressed or frustrated if didn't have enough fiat available for that.

Starting to realise this is the first time in six years I've been more chill about the market overall, sometimes not being 99% exposed is a nice feeling lol. If price reached $100K rather than say $40K next then I can imagine the feelings of greed would kick in with me thinking "why I am not 99% exposed like usual", but I think after a cycle or two you get over this need to have the maximum gain/risk possible.

As for current price, despite the lower highs and lower lows, the current channel over past 6 months looks very stable, even if naturally it's a downtrend, it's super orderly. Kind of reminds me of the $25K to $30K consolidation that also took 6 months before price doubled in value. This could just take another test of the lower bound of support around $50K before popping off higher (assuming we re-test support again for like the 4th time after getting rejected for a 3rd time, ie carry on with same as usual with the current ping-pong between support and resistance). The potential black swan / capitulation event looks more like it'd be around $43K now rather than $30K, given in a week price would have completed 6 months of consolidation, which is looking more and more bullish every month that passes. The main reason being the 200 WMA has moved up from $32K to $40K now, so while the potential for this to act as support remains the same, the support price is now considerably higher than it was 6 months ago.

If anything a return to $30K would more likely signal a much longer-term consolidation (between ~$30K and ~$60K), which wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing even if not immediately bullish. Generally I think this is no time to be sitting on the sidelines with high potential for further upside by the end of the year, but also not necessarily the time to be "all in" at current prices like it was in September/October 2020 when it looked like price was going to explode to the upside before it predictably did. Chances are those of don't have enough coin will load up in the low 50s as they have been for months already, while those who aren't in need of more coins will take average in the low 40s, just because of the low risk / high reward possibilities long-term.

Just to point out this is because off topic posts aren't moderated by mods over there, self-moderated topics are possible but only with the user subscribed to specific membership groups. So for bounty managers and official/verified accounts this isn't a problem as self-moderated option comes with the membership, but for "regular" users this is very expensive to put it simply.

So it's not not that notblox1 couldn't do anything about it, it's that they didn't want to pay 1.1 ETH for the privilege for moderate their own topic, was much cheaper to come here 

Does anyone know if they use a spreadsheet to document users / posts, has anyone signed up to investigate yet?

Trying to help deal this out on another forum...thanks in advance.

Correct, at present with price range between $60K and $70K, I'm not particularly convinced about any considerable downside or upside for that matter, until the range is broken at least - which could take another few months at current pace. Even if I'm more 55/45 siding with downside. You're suggestion of a bet of not reaching 20% higher than the 200 WMA is an interesting one though, as at present that would be a correction to $43,090 (35909 x 1.2), as opposed to sub $40K, which is approximately the area I imagine support would be found given a deeper correction. Based on current linear trajectory, that would be around $56K for the MA within the next few months (*at current prices that is), which would mean reaching $68.4K at +20%. Although notably the trajectory is currently set to slow it's pace in approx 10 weeks as it starts to knock out $20K to 60K candles, this wouldn't take effect (*) until mid August. So overall, that'd be a lot fairer bet for me that the idea of sub $40K by the end of the year, quite clearly. I'm otherwise confident that price in 2024 will be higher than 2024, so no bet from me regarding that. But also, as referenced, until we're back down to $60K then I only really see further range-bound accumulation and distribution.

Overall my general theory is that if $60K support is broken again, that $50K levels won't hold and we'll return to volume support / opening price around $40K, or otherwise around the 200 WMA if it catches up by then. I'd like to believe the theory that ETF buyers are strong hands, but given we've already seen outflows during bearish price movements (even if not very consistently), I suspect the floodgates of sellers will open below $60K. As even if you bought the ETF at $50K that's still a 25% return, which compared to most other ETFs, it's considerable. For BTC, it's obviously very little.

I think it did, given I posted it after price had already dropped below $70K... sometimes I forget sarcasm is lost on the internet 


Yes, it looks a lot more interesting now after all this consolidation, and increasingly likely the break-out will be definitive once it occurs - ie continue in that direction for months to come once it happens. Price looks pretty indecisive still, given higher bullish and bearish volume candles cancelling themselves out in recent days. Given the low volume, it could certainly go either way from here.

I'm still anticipating a further correction since we've been failing to maintain the previous cycle ATH for so long now, which has never been a problem before in previous cycles, as well as other factors such as failing to continue to the upside from $68-70K levels back in March, which was the mid-cycle top potential, similar to summer 2019, and completely the opposite to December 2020 when price pierced through it with ease at $21K. Now ironically it's around $89K which would be the next target for a mid-cycle correction, but I'd happily concede that at that level a mid-cycle correction is unlikely to play out, so would probably be somewhat irrelevant it seems.

Additionally the miner capitulation hash ribbons post-havling signal last month (like clockwork) suggesting further consolidation/correction rather than immediate upside, which has generally been pretty reliable over the cycles, and so far is playing out even though it's only been a few weeks. So while at present price still looks/structured bullish, above longer-term MAs etc, there are bearish macro factors in play which wasn't the case a few months ago when I was speculating about a correction or consolidation as opposed to immediate further upside. This is nearly always the case with a few months of consolidation within a range at the highs, similar to early 2021 between $50K and $60K, where there were warning signs prior to a 50% correction. Of course we could look back and blame the China ban that was the catalyst, but this is generally irrelevant; the market was fragile enough for a state actor to take advantage, whereas if the market was full-blown bullish it would have barely had any effect on bullish momentum. Naturally a buy signal could otherwise turn this around to parabolic-bullish pretty swiftly like in July 2020, so as I said initially, it could quite easily go either way even if there are bearish warning signs that lack follow through.

Price strength is otherwise flirting with getting rejected from overbought levels, similar to November 2021, which while I don't believe will lead to a "major" correction (ie -75%), it could still lead to a significant correction before a 2025 bull market takes off, as there is a still most of two quarters left in the year, so plenty of time. At least historically, this type of a rejection often leads to a around a 25-35% correction, or alternatively a few months of consolidation (ie on top of the few months we've already had), which doesn't seem like a crazy idea anymore (ie 6 months consolidation). But again this is a case of if price is able to comfortably return to and maintain overbought levels, then there is a lot of room to the upside between an RSI of 70 and one of 90, similar to $35K to $45K move, or $42K to $69K. So generally, there's a lot more reason to be cautious at current prices compared to 3 months ago, even if not quite bearish if price can hold $60K support level. I just personally think price will struggle to do that, as was the case last month, whereas this time around returning to these support levels will be a lot worse, for example breaking the 20 Week MA around $63K has been a reliable signal for a deeper correction to come.

It otherwise generally seems likes longer-term OTC sellers are distributing to ETFs, hence the range-bound price right now, given the relatively low spot volume in recent weeks/months, the continued accumulation (overall) from ETFs, and otherwise HODL waves showing longer-term holders taking profits. This seems also pretty clear from number of Bitcoins produced per day vs accumulation from ETFs. It's been said for months that this imbalance would lead to much higher prices (such as yourself), but so far this hasn't happened, and based on the low spot volume, the selling must be coming from elsewhere like OTC. This seems to be the current battle in play, and whether the current price range will be confirmed as an accumulation zone by ETF buyers, or a distribution zone for OTC sellers, isn't possible to assess until it happens.

Aside from how much bitcoin ETFs have aggressively been accumulating (around ~5% of total supply last I checked), I don't doubt that OTC sellers have a lot more than that on offer to sell at current prices if they continue as they have been. So this range could last another few months at this rate, until sellers run out of coins to sell, or otherwise ETFs slow down or stop accumulating. Generally I think it's best to let these whales play games between themselves, and let it play out, as there could be a bear whale / bull whale type of event that happens behind closed doors that would catch a lot of people off guard. So anyone longing or shorting on leverage within this range need to be extremely carefully, already the recent chop is a major warning sign that there is a determined battle between different entities or groups of bulls and bears at present. That might sound like a dramatic or exaggerated analysis of current price movement/range, but bear in mind the bulls are acting transparently via ETF accumulation that's well documented, while OTC bears are far from transparent with their dealings, so in this case I'd say have the slight upper hand, because no-one is really able to track how much they are selling or how much they have to sell.

You'll never see sub $70K prices ever again.

Your general reasoning is a good reason to consider the bet that's for sure. I was wrong about a deeper correction from $48K, although technically I was never wrong about the idea of $30Ks at upper $60Ks, I simply pointing out that if a top occured from there would likely lead to $30Ks (more likely than finding supporting above that level). But I never said we would top out in the $60Ks, if anything the opposite is true, but it's somewhat beside the point. I was actually more convinced we'd go higher than previous ATH once we got there, even if I still considered a 50% correction as likely (from a new ATH). The issue here is that I'm only willing to consider a bet with at minimum a top formation. Because to put it simply I'm not naive enough to make a bet based on price topping out at X. The bet for me would be less about whether there will be a correction (that there already is) but how deep the correction could go.


Yeh probably. I'm not even 60/40 that price goes to $40K either. That would be more like 52/48 if I had to assign random numbers. Probably 55/45 that we reach $50K at least.


OK Bitstamp instead, sure.


I'm not suggesting we make a bet unless price is around $60K, or has already gone below. Sure this could mean that if price dumped to $55K and failed to recover, there would likely be no bet. But otherwise, below $61.4K I'm interested. $60K was more of a round number reference. As price is finding support again from the 200 MA on 4hr (as anticipated) then I'm not jumping into a bet here for obvious reasons. I'd be better off re-considering around $80K. Bistamp otherwise does provide a considerably lower price requirement, though I understand and respect the desire to stick with this exchange. It's certainly one I'd have to think about, based on breaking $40K but not necessary reaching $37K either.



2024 would be fine for me. Depends on the bet, if it were $40K or $80K that's clear cut I think (even if takes a while). Otherwise 2024 would be fine for me. Assuming I'd lose either way by 2025 that is. As a summary, this is the bet I'd be more willing to take, and I think is fairer for the both of us, based on my previous reasoning that the % difference would be the same going to $40K or $80K from approx $60K.


That would be fair, I'd only consider the bet as lower than $40K (even if only by a cent and based on a wick). Given that's ultimately the level you seem convinced confident price won't break. I'm otherwise not considering this a slam dunk bet either, and I wouldn't be willing to bet much on it. It's be more for the lolz and fun rather than any potential satoshi gain. There'd be more fun to be had with offering double or nothing odds to such scenarios as reaching $50K or $70K once the bet is applied (from both sides). Even if it'd mainly be taunting, it's all fun and games.


I'm just pointing out ways in which I could lose the bet and should consider my options here.


2024 would be fine. We can take 2025 off the table here. I wouldn't even feel hard done by if it reached there in 2025, I'd probably have a lot more to be concerned about if that happened.

My bad, I might had missed your counter offer, but got the impression you weren't interested in the vagueness of a 50% drop in 2024, as per below. As I said before, until there was a top formed/forming, there wouldn't be any bet I'd be willing to make on where a 50% correction came from, as it would be a complete stab in the dark (ie $80K, $100K, etc), only that I think it would in 2024.


You were wise to not take that bet then


At current price (between $60K and $70K roughly), I'm pretty neutral about whether there will be such a correction from here, or higher levels, like $80K. What I believe is more likely to happen isn't necessarily the odds I'd apply, as I'd prefer to stick to the odds that the chart is telling me. Even being 50/50 is a bit of a dubious position, as it's only the 20 DMA that's broken, the shorter-term time-frames remain bullish.



On a side note: I'm also slightly surprised that price didn't continue on to $80K after breaking ATH, as there was certainly room for a blow-off style top with maximum overbought conditions. The momentum wasn't on the side of the bulls after all it seems, as it wasn't selling pressure but more so lack of buying pressure (based on volume that was declining since the top rather than increasing/maintaining with sell volume). But with that, and without a blow-off top with high sell volume, it doesn't necessarily put me in better position (in the context of betting on further downside), as price is instead consolidating right now. Neither the bulls nor the bears are showing they have the momentum for either further upside or downside, even if one side will eventually have a breakthrough with this in the near-term. But as referenced, below $60K, I would be 60/40 anticipating further downside over the next few months. Even if market structure isn't in my favour necessarily right now, I acknowledge that GBTC selling probably is at the moment.

So based on Coinbase high of $73,835.57, I make a 50% correction from current high $36,917.79, which I'd be willing to make a bet over given a break of $60K. Granted this would only be a further -38% to the downside, but would be -50% from the top, which as you said you don't believe is very unlikely (at least without reaching $80K or higher). But I can understand that if price fell below $60K, maybe you'd increase your odds of reaching around $40K and therefore the bet would no longer be in your favour. But I'm basing this in your initial statement that would remain true even with breaking $60K or $50K for that matter:


So with this in mind, and a break of $60K (and price around that level as it were), I think me betting on $40K coming first and you on $80K would be a fairer bet no?  That would be 33% in either direction from there. And would also mean I'm not relying on a precise number to fall to, given that I think -50% is more of a maximum that's likely, and could easily be a few percent off either way. I'd feel pretty daft if price got to $40K but miss $37K in reality. If anything I wonder if this bet would favour you more here, as price could reach $80K before reaching $40K for example... which is a risk I'd have to take here.

(With that last part I'd have to consider whether this bet would really be fair after all, and whether simply reaching $40K this year would fairer for me, even if price reached $80K for example)


Bare in mind that UnDerDoG81 has been the market since 2013, not just during the bull run, so I doubt they are clueless here.

I don't think that's what JJG was implying what you are saying either, only that the decision could be more emotional rather than logic based, which would also make sense if it's based on what he/she feels comfortable with holding, rather than what logically would be the "best" quantity to hold. Being 100% invested is otherwise very greedy, so you can look at this either way (even JJG isn't 100% invested!)

Just be aware that selling around ATH is historically a very risky strategy. But also, depends on your exposure how much your selling etc. If you're 100% invested, then sure, you could be overexposed here, even if price were to go to the upside, you wouldn't be "losing" much by holding 90%. Especially if you'd feel more comfortable having some dry powder for a potential correction.

Often I think it's less about whether price is more likely to go up or down, but what you feel more comfortable with, or which scenario you'd prefer to be. Ie, would you prefer to have 10% capital for a potential correction, or prefer to be 100% in rather than 90% if there were further upside? That's the real question here. To me that'd be a no brainier, as I'm not as greedy as I used to be, but everyone is different.


Not sure if you were asking me, but at present I'd say 50/50 further upside. With $60K breaking I'd be 60/40 for further downside. With $69K breaking to the upside I'd say 60/40 further upside. Not massively swaying in either direction here and from a trading perspective this is very much in a "no trade zone" when inbetween support and resistance. Hence emphasis on too early tell. But also if you're not willing to sell below $60K (for obvious reasons), then you'd have to make a decision before then. Not gonna lie, some of the best analysts are suggesting that the cycle is over now with ETFs entering the space, which while I generally agree with, I don't believe it will be fully realised until GBTC selling is resolved. Either than, of net inflows returns to positive again, which again above $69K would be quite likely I think.

As for the idea that ETF investors will jump ship if price corrected in half, I think the opposite is true. They got in knowing price could correct 50% or further, and are instead much more likely to double down at a considerable discount, after some consolidation and price stability (ie not buying the dip per say), compared to retail who are known for panic selling. I don't think they are naive or going to be quick sellers, but instead they will happily sit back and let prices fall until strength returns to the market, as they have done this week, as is the norm for ETF investing, in order to buy strength not weakness.

Obviously this is speculation that ETF holders will be strong hands, as is that they will be weak hands, when neither can be proven yet. But that's all we have to go on for now: speculation.

Yes, but you can take my opinion with a dose of salt as I've been sceptical about this rally since $48K 

According to Pi Cycle Top, as discussed elsewhere, $70K is either the mid-cycle top (like in 2019, 2016 and 2012), prior to a correction and consolidation, or this is the late-stage top, ie start of full blown bull market, like in 2020, 2017 and 2013. Based on time, I see this as a mid-stage not a late-stage top, especially given this indicator has "factored in" a new ATH being at this mid-stage top, and has previously been the most accurate at identifying these types of tops. This would otherwise be the first time there has been no "mid-stage correction" in Bitcoin's history, so while possible, the argument is that "this time it's different" - which is a fair argument given the introduction of ETFs and new ATH already.

More than anything I think ETFs are following the price, not leading it. There has been net inflows on the way up and net outflows on the way down generally speaking, even if they are helping to drive the price in both directions. All it will take is for GBTC to offload the rest of their coins, which may only take a couple of months from here, but until then and seeing net outflows, there remains selling pressure.

Based on price alone, either $69K breaks to the upside and price rallies further, or otherwise $60K breaks to the downside, leaving a pretty sizeable volume gap down to $52K at best, but more realistically $42K to $44K (which would still be a macro higher low). Also within a couple of months the 50 Week MA will be around these prices too, so bullish continuation could start from there quite easily. Based on 200 WMA projection, it should be around $37K by August (that was also a consolidation level) and would be a full -50% haircut, which is about as low as I see price going for now, if the correction lasted 4 months.

Wasn't expecting that, would of thought inflows were positive based on the buying pressure. 3.8K Bitcoin is a fair amount of corn to scoop up from ETFs. Reclaiming $69K will likely bring back the ETF volume imo though, this would help to nullify the fake-out ATH scenario with a bullish weekly wick. Either that or $68K get's confirmed as a resistance level for the time being. This is otherwise the first real test of short-term resistance since $40K levels based on cloud, MAs and volume, so I can understand with the hesitancy from ETF investors on this one, given they quite clearly aren't in the market to buy dips.

The only relevance to me is based on potential selling pressure, as I explained above. We've seen consistent outflows in the past 2 months and it's fair to assume that will continue (irrespective of price), until it no longer does or slows down to become insignificant. Naturally these outflows weren't that relevant when the overall inflows of ETFs outweighed the outflows when price was trending upwards, especially when a lot can be attributed to GBTC holders moving to other ETFs. However this week, similar to January correction, the outflows are again outweighing the inflows. It means that GBTC is significant when it comes to selling pressure, at least at present. Even if just one of many factors including miners reserves (that last I heard they hold 1.82m BTC), liquidiations, even exchange holdings, etc.

Your questions in general seem better directed to GBTC holders, rather than myself and potentially others. I actually agree with what you're saying overall though. Why do holders care if GBTC is holding it's peg, why bother move to Blackrock just because the fee is currently lower (when next year it could be same as GBTC anyway). But this "why the outflows" question isn't relevant to me, only the data, that shows outflows.

So according to CoinTelegraph, it'd be around 4 months (though the wording "current rate" shouldn't be considered accurate here):


By my calculations, and current average selling, it'd be more like 3 months (26.6 billion (total) / 274.2 million (average per day) = 97 days). Based on the actual current rate, for example this week's average so far of 542.5 per day, it would actually take 49 days. So somewhere between 1.6 months (current rate) and 3.2 months (average so far). That puts the estimated range as May 8 to June 23. The middle of that range is May 30*.

The fact GBTC is recording record outflows is a good thing however and should be encouraged. The sooner they sell their coins, the better, it is literally just a matter of time. If anything, the lack of inflows at current price is more of a concern in the immediate term, with Blackrock recording their lowest inflows to date of only $75m, compared to an average of $277m. Especially when the record of $849m was made at $70K prices. Price has dropped -15% since then and remains at a 10% discount. Where did all the ETF buyers go? It gives the impression they only want to buy in big amounts on the way up, not on the way down (buying strength not weakness). It also shows that GBTC holders are not currently moving their investments to other ETFs, but instead to cash to put it in simple terms (at least this week). This is all only based on two days of data, so is too early to tell, similar to how ETF data in general is only 3 months old (mostly during an uptrend), so is too early to tell whether investors will be buying down as well as up.

*Probably should be noted that it's unlikely 100% of investors will flee GBTC, so the end date for continuous outflows could be much sooner

Yes, this I agree with and have maintained as an opinion since the ETF. For now, the ETFs will follow the market, not the other way around. At least until most Bitcoin held long-term is in ETFs rather than self-custody.


This time it still could be different, and arguably already has been different. That of making an ATH prior to the halving which has never happened before. But I think price aside, the dyanmics of the 4 year cycle will still play out, especially since the current recovery has been over 12 months, meaning there is a lot of room for 3-9 months of consolidation, starting with a correction.


Well you said 2022, not 2020, so wasn't that funny 


Even if you compare to 2024 to 2016, there's not a lot of difference. Namely a correction followed by correction prior to and after the halving.