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Showing 15 of 15 results by ediface
I actually thought it was from ediface, but his account was corroborated by trulycoined.
Oh man, that's funny. The flux capacitor actually was from me because that's what went through my head while I was reading it because essentially he's making the claim that at 12 he observed one of great discoveries of science just as Galileo did (not incorrectly like Aristotle did) and he did it all on his own. I actually left off an important part of the quote because right before he starts the story he says:
"Before I had ever ready(sic) Einstein,.."
So I can understand why you thought it was from him. But the end quote for the article in my original post is right before the flux capacitor part.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/cycles-einstein-galileo-geometry-of-time/
"I was probably about 12 years old and I fell out of a tree and over a cliff falling probably a couple of hundred feet. I was lucky and it was Fall so at the base of the cliff was a mountain of leaves. The leaves broke my fall but my teeth nearly came through my bottom lip. The wind was knocked out of me and my nose was bleeding." <---- end of article quote here
...and when i came to I had a revelation! A vision! A picture in my head! A picture of this! This is what makes time travel possible: the flux capacitor!
"I was probably about 12 years old and I fell out of a tree and over a cliff falling probably a couple of hundred feet. I was lucky and it was Fall so at the base of the cliff was a mountain of leaves. The leaves broke my fall but my teeth nearly came through my bottom lip. The wind was knocked out of me and my nose was bleeding." <---- end of article quote here
...and when i came to I had a revelation! A vision! A picture in my head! A picture of this! This is what makes time travel possible: the flux capacitor!
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/cycles-einstein-galileo-geometry-of-time/
"I was probably about 12 years old and I fell out of a tree and over a cliff falling probably a couple of hundred feet. I was lucky and it was Fall so at the base of the cliff was a mountain of leaves. The leaves broke my fall but my teeth nearly came through my bottom lip. The wind was knocked out of me and my nose was bleeding."
...and when i came to I had a revelation! A vision! A picture in my head! A picture of this! This is what makes time travel possible: the flux capacitor!
He's starting to sound just like a kid who lived in my college dorm who always told the most outlandish stories. He always had to one-up whatever you said. It was fascinating to listen to someone be so creative and believe every word they said no matter how unrealistic the stories got.
It's sad because I've learned a lot from MA about investing, economics, politics, etc. And also because I still believe Socrates has a lot of value as a tool, but needs tons of work to be of value to individual investors. It appears he is unraveling though.
"I was probably about 12 years old and I fell out of a tree and over a cliff falling probably a couple of hundred feet. I was lucky and it was Fall so at the base of the cliff was a mountain of leaves. The leaves broke my fall but my teeth nearly came through my bottom lip. The wind was knocked out of me and my nose was bleeding."
...and when i came to I had a revelation! A vision! A picture in my head! A picture of this! This is what makes time travel possible: the flux capacitor!
He's starting to sound just like a kid who lived in my college dorm who always told the most outlandish stories. He always had to one-up whatever you said. It was fascinating to listen to someone be so creative and believe every word they said no matter how unrealistic the stories got.
It's sad because I've learned a lot from MA about investing, economics, politics, etc. And also because I still believe Socrates has a lot of value as a tool, but needs tons of work to be of value to individual investors. It appears he is unraveling though.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/gang-of-four-trying-to-start-race-wars/
"In my company, we are like the UN. We have EVERY race, creed, and gender among our ranks. I find it offensive that people like this are in the public eye and fanning the flames of violence. This type of speech only inspires hatred on both sides that some will use to justify violence against others. This is highly irresponsible and people like this do not belong in any public office. The man who fire bombed and tried to kill ICE workers was inspired by AOC. He adopted her characterization that they are holding people in concentration camps. Meanwhile, the media is doing its best to ignore this attack because it would go against AOC. This type of rhetoric inspires people perhaps with mental issues to act."
Not once has anything been said by Mr. Armstrong condemning the racist, anti-religious, and misogynistic statements of the President of the United States. And this is his response to the condemnation of the line-in-the-sand tweet by the President of the United States. I am now completely done with any services provided by Mr. Armstrong.
"In my company, we are like the UN. We have EVERY race, creed, and gender among our ranks. I find it offensive that people like this are in the public eye and fanning the flames of violence. This type of speech only inspires hatred on both sides that some will use to justify violence against others. This is highly irresponsible and people like this do not belong in any public office. The man who fire bombed and tried to kill ICE workers was inspired by AOC. He adopted her characterization that they are holding people in concentration camps. Meanwhile, the media is doing its best to ignore this attack because it would go against AOC. This type of rhetoric inspires people perhaps with mental issues to act."
Not once has anything been said by Mr. Armstrong condemning the racist, anti-religious, and misogynistic statements of the President of the United States. And this is his response to the condemnation of the line-in-the-sand tweet by the President of the United States. I am now completely done with any services provided by Mr. Armstrong.
There is nothing Trump has said that is racist or misogynistic you can only imply he is a racist or against women indirectly but that is possible for just about any statement made. There is no way you can win this argument logically it is purely emotional but you can quote something he said and try your best. It sounds to me like you are the being sexist implying men cannot insult women just because of their gender. This is political correctness which is a disease. We judge other people by ourselves so this says a lot more about you than it does Trump. I guess you also believe Trump raped 26 women since there have been about that many accusations, you just don't know how ugly politics can get.
So is it now a crime to be against the religion of Islam which has been one of the most murderous religions? Mohammed was a warlord, no other prophet has cut off so many heads.
Your words, which happen to be littered with fallacies, say enough about you that I don't need to address them.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/gang-of-four-trying-to-start-race-wars/
"In my company, we are like the UN. We have EVERY race, creed, and gender among our ranks. I find it offensive that people like this are in the public eye and fanning the flames of violence. This type of speech only inspires hatred on both sides that some will use to justify violence against others. This is highly irresponsible and people like this do not belong in any public office. The man who fire bombed and tried to kill ICE workers was inspired by AOC. He adopted her characterization that they are holding people in concentration camps. Meanwhile, the media is doing its best to ignore this attack because it would go against AOC. This type of rhetoric inspires people perhaps with mental issues to act."
Not once has anything been said by Mr. Armstrong condemning the racist, anti-religious, and misogynistic statements of the President of the United States. And this is his response to the condemnation of the line-in-the-sand tweet by the President of the United States. I am now completely done with any services provided by Mr. Armstrong.
"In my company, we are like the UN. We have EVERY race, creed, and gender among our ranks. I find it offensive that people like this are in the public eye and fanning the flames of violence. This type of speech only inspires hatred on both sides that some will use to justify violence against others. This is highly irresponsible and people like this do not belong in any public office. The man who fire bombed and tried to kill ICE workers was inspired by AOC. He adopted her characterization that they are holding people in concentration camps. Meanwhile, the media is doing its best to ignore this attack because it would go against AOC. This type of rhetoric inspires people perhaps with mental issues to act."
Not once has anything been said by Mr. Armstrong condemning the racist, anti-religious, and misogynistic statements of the President of the United States. And this is his response to the condemnation of the line-in-the-sand tweet by the President of the United States. I am now completely done with any services provided by Mr. Armstrong.
Thank you for the help. Isn't the 9/29/2017 COST a failed bullish reversal because the reversal is 164.96 and the closing on 9/29/2017 was 164.29. Also 81.74 for the 7/29/2016 SPY seems way to low to be a monthly bullish reversal since SPY closed at 217.12 on that date.
Yep, copy and paste errors. Those were the same values as the row above. So COST reversal is $159.81 and SPY is $2134.73 which have been updated. Those didn't have an impact on the returns though since that's just reference data.
I think a few of the reversals were miss typed. Do you mind checking the 6/3/2019 WMT,
4/15/2019 COST, 9/29/2017 COST, 7/29/2016 SPY. I think these reversals were not elected because you used the closing on Monday instead of the closing on Friday. Also what does "Rev Dt" column mean?
4/15/2019 COST, 9/29/2017 COST, 7/29/2016 SPY. I think these reversals were not elected because you used the closing on Monday instead of the closing on Friday. Also what does "Rev Dt" column mean?
The first column is the last trading day of the period in question. The period in question is the Rev Dt column. For example, the last trading day of September 2017 was the 29th so for the above COST example a monthly reversal was elected in September 2017 (Rev Dt) and the trading day where the reversal was elected was 6/29/2017 (first column - Rev Election Dt). The first column is then used to get the open of the next trading day which is used for the open of the trade (column H). With that said...
6/3/2019 WMT was corrected to 6/7/2019 and Rev Dt was corrected to 6/3/2019
4/15/2019 COST was corrected to 4/5/2019 which is the last trading day of the week of 4/1/2019
9/29/2017 COST is correct as it is the last trading day of September 2017
7/29/2016 SPY is correct as it is the last trading day of July 2016
Thanks for pointing those out.
Re-posting the link to the spreadsheet I started a couple months ago.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZJ8y06rALN-1eUPX_1ZbAfJ4SPP1oM_LcMHg5fsLW_I/edit#gid=0
My main purpose for posting this originally was to try to get some confirmation in my understanding of the reversal system which was not available via Socrates support and this is the only specific trading strategy listed in the documentation (open a position the open of the next trading day and close at the election of the reversal in the opposite direction). But since this information is proprietary I do not want to continue to update with new information. I will close out the open positions when that happens, however, so I will do some updating. And, I will say that the major changes are for the weekly reversals in the DOW (bullish positions were closed out and bearish positions were opened and then closed out all with losses), the USD/EURO weekly and monthly bearish reversals were all closed out at $1.1343, and WMT had several weekly and a monthly bullish reversal elected so more positions would have been opened.
In my limited experience so far I do not believe that Socrates is a fraud. The monthly reversals have overall worked very well for the handful of assets shown here. Also, there has always been follow-through when all of the bullish or bearish monthly reversals are elected for an asset.
I also believe that Socrates is extremely complicated and getting started is completely overwhelming. There is a lack of support for users trying to understand how to use the system, there are bugs, there is limited historical data, no back-testing capabilities, and some critical information is not included that was available in the version WEC attendees were able to use. It also does not have any capabilities for screening assets. Even if you have the ability on your own to scrape the data it is too expensive to get access to what you would need (i.e. the reversals). It essentially feels like the system is still designed for institutional users who would have access to everything in Socrates.
I am currently trying to build a strategy, as alluded to but not well-described in the user manual, for using failed election of reversals which seems to have some promise. Again, the lack of back-testing capabilities and limited access to data makes this an extremely difficult task.
@bikefront @MTL4 Could you send me a PM? I have some questions for you on your experience with Socrates.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZJ8y06rALN-1eUPX_1ZbAfJ4SPP1oM_LcMHg5fsLW_I/edit#gid=0
My main purpose for posting this originally was to try to get some confirmation in my understanding of the reversal system which was not available via Socrates support and this is the only specific trading strategy listed in the documentation (open a position the open of the next trading day and close at the election of the reversal in the opposite direction). But since this information is proprietary I do not want to continue to update with new information. I will close out the open positions when that happens, however, so I will do some updating. And, I will say that the major changes are for the weekly reversals in the DOW (bullish positions were closed out and bearish positions were opened and then closed out all with losses), the USD/EURO weekly and monthly bearish reversals were all closed out at $1.1343, and WMT had several weekly and a monthly bullish reversal elected so more positions would have been opened.
In my limited experience so far I do not believe that Socrates is a fraud. The monthly reversals have overall worked very well for the handful of assets shown here. Also, there has always been follow-through when all of the bullish or bearish monthly reversals are elected for an asset.
I also believe that Socrates is extremely complicated and getting started is completely overwhelming. There is a lack of support for users trying to understand how to use the system, there are bugs, there is limited historical data, no back-testing capabilities, and some critical information is not included that was available in the version WEC attendees were able to use. It also does not have any capabilities for screening assets. Even if you have the ability on your own to scrape the data it is too expensive to get access to what you would need (i.e. the reversals). It essentially feels like the system is still designed for institutional users who would have access to everything in Socrates.
I am currently trying to build a strategy, as alluded to but not well-described in the user manual, for using failed election of reversals which seems to have some promise. Again, the lack of back-testing capabilities and limited access to data makes this an extremely difficult task.
@bikefront @MTL4 Could you send me a PM? I have some questions for you on your experience with Socrates.
Yes, the gmw can be used to find opportunities, assuming they do not have a lower winrate and such. This is assuming it even works at all- it seems more backward looking and a rather lagging indicator that changes often- but again, it needs to go by Reversals for signals.
If the GMW can't be used as some type of a signal as part of a trading algorithm then I'm not sure what value it would have at all. The only way to test that is to gather the data and find its potential as a forward looking indicator which is all I am doing. Ideally, it should be tested as both an indicator for entering and exiting positions, as well as not taking any position at all. So if phase transitions and waterfall statuses are precursor for large moves up and large moves down then I should be able to quantify what it means to fulfill the parameters of those patterns and determine the probability of Socrates correctly predicting that pattern being fulfilled. I may need to look into the arrays and reversals so that I can avoid the scenarios where it may not be fulfilled which is fine. However, if the status doesn't do any better at predicting the future movements of an asset then it's just words and colors on a web page so I can say it feels like X is going to go up or down now.
And by the way, the one who wrote the imgur user guide was me. I only pretended it was not me because I wanted to have it viewed and critiqued objectively instead of being referenced. I will probably delete it soon because it simply does not work.
I'm not sure what user guide you are referring to. The user guide I was quoting is directly from the ask-socrates website.
The 30/70 rule you are referring to is in the user manual, as well:
Quote
The Panic Cycle Models identify potential timing of abrupt, possibly dramatic price movement. A Panic Cycle differs from a turning point or a directional change insofar as it does not necessarily reflect a high or low, nor is it attempting to reflect the beginning of a change in trend.
Weve observed that approximately 70% of the time, a Panic Cycle has been an outside reversal (e.g. when price exceeds the previous session high while also penetrating its low), or capitulation, whereas approximately 30% of the time it has been a relatively fast one way move.
(Note: the use of the term reversal in the phrase outside reversal has absolutely no relation to the term "Reversals" from the proprietary Reversal System available in Socrates it simply refers to a dramatic price move in which a market price exceeds the previous session high while also penetrating its low).
Weve observed that approximately 70% of the time, a Panic Cycle has been an outside reversal (e.g. when price exceeds the previous session high while also penetrating its low), or capitulation, whereas approximately 30% of the time it has been a relatively fast one way move.
(Note: the use of the term reversal in the phrase outside reversal has absolutely no relation to the term "Reversals" from the proprietary Reversal System available in Socrates it simply refers to a dramatic price move in which a market price exceeds the previous session high while also penetrating its low).
I was under the impression that the stop was meant to be set a little under the elected Reversal. Once a Reversal is elected, it can test the Reversal as support or test the next Reversal, according to how it is supposed to work. Otherwise, it would net too high of a drawdown.
From the user manual:
Quote
Thus, when considering Reversals as part of your investment or trading strategy, it is generally advisable to utilize a stop orders. In such case, we typically recommend looking at the closest opposite Reversal in the same time frame you used to enter a market position (e.g. weekly or monthly) as a price point in which to set a stop order
Armstrong has said that the GMW is not a trading tool and should not be used to trade. However, he has said some conflicting things in regards to the arrays and Reversals. He said we never trade in anticipation. Let the market show you the way. On the flip side, he also said the arrays can be traded if the market makes a high or low against a Reversal when it coincides with an array turning point.
This was why I took a position in SDOW: the arrays were showing a significant turning point for last week. If I had used the daily bearish reversals as an entry point as stockpile had mentioned he had used, I would have gotten a bit better of an entry point. So I will be watching those more closely as I consider buy/sell points. I expect the daily bullish reversals to start to come down from where they are now (as of now the next one is at $26,602.43) once Socrates sees a bottom for this current correction I will use that for an exit
This is also why I didn't take positions in DIS/WMT/SPY even though bullish reversals were being generated. The arrays were pointing to a turning point last week for all of these, as well. And since the bearish reversals are supposed to be the stop loss points, I expect that as long as bearish reversals are not elected on DIS/WMT/SPY I should watch for daily bullish reversals to be elected for entry points on those and have a much better entry point than Socrates does.
The problem with options is that even if Socrates is right, theta can eat into value. Other things such as earning reports and other Greeks can really skew the value. I don't know if Socrates is better or worse on individual stocks, as they are not as liquid as generalized asset classes. I would guess it is not as good. I also have not tried the GMW on the daily level, but be careful of using data on specific things that works well when backtesting- it could be just a coincidence.
I'm just monitoring right now and looking for anything that could signal a trade. When looking for an investment using Socrates one suggestion is to start at the GMW and look specifically for yellow or blue statues as they indicate the potential for trading opportunities. This would be verified by going to the arrays and reversals to see what they are indicating. So if they are going to be valid potential trading opportunities then shouldn't they statistically be better than random signaling a potential move in an instrument? At least worth some analysis I figured. Two strong candidates are "Crash Mode" (5%+ decline within 5 days 22.3% of the time - 76 data points) and "Phase Transition" (5%+ rally within 5 days 3-of-7 times with worst performance being 2.52%). Would be nice to be able to back test as far back as Socrates has generated data for, though.
ediface, would an election of the opposite Reversal really be practical? I can see some huge drawdowns in that kind of strategy. I was thinking of adding max profit and max drawdown on those things so we can consistently assess profit as well as loss.
It doesn't seem practical to me but that is where the stop losses are set by Socrates.
I was thinking of adding max profit and max drawdown on those things so we can consistently assess profit as well as loss.
If according to MA the best way to use Socrates is using the reversals, arrays, and GMW on each of the time levels then it certainly makes sense to put more data points in here to generate better buy/sell signals beyond the basic trading of reversals on a single time level. If there are formulas or examples for Google Sheets available anywhere that would be helpful.
Also, wondering why you chose to have subscriptions in those particular products? Also, if you could post some of your live trading entries and exits, that'd be great, if you are using real money to trade. If not, that's okay too, just that I'd like to know the actual trades made by the Socrates system.
The assets I picked are because I own those particular stocks long-term. Being familiar with those assets I figured it would allow me to more quickly figure out how to best use Socrates for any of my trading strategies. At this point I've only made a few live trades based on Socrates. I bought a few options for V and WMT based on the election of some daily and weekly reversals (I think overall break even on this) and I'm currently holding SDOW based on the turning point last week. I am waiting for the pull-back on DIS since the election of the monthly bullish reversals were more than 1% above them ($120.66). I will certainly post if I trade anything based on Socrates.
My main focus right now (outside of my full time job) is building out a semi-automated, if not fully-automated, trading system. I've got a majority of the core architecture built so now I am working on the trading algorithms. I was hopeful that Socarates would make this a simple task but that's not the case as of yet. I do scrape all the GMW statuses every day from the Global Stocks and can generate performance of those (there is some promise at least with a couple of the statuses on the daily levels). There are some gaps in the data, but I've got a good chunk of it since the middle of February. I want to start scraping all of the assets but I need to add the assets to my database first which I just haven't gotten around to doing.
I'm not a frequent trader and have limited knowledge of TA so I've been trying to build my knowledge base as I build out the system and try to crunch some data to see what gets spit out. Any ideas on how to process Socrates data (or any data for that matter) I'll gladly put the time in to do that since it would certainly be mutually beneficial.
ediface, please label all columns, eg type of Reversal. Also please add other metrics, such as length of time it took to reach the Reversal, maximum drawdown from the point of entry, maximum potential profit. Posting real time trades for all to see is needed.
Alex, also please post the next Reversals so we know how far price is expected to go and it can be verified by all users in real time to avoid hindsight bias.
Alex, also please post the next Reversals so we know how far price is expected to go and it can be verified by all users in real time to avoid hindsight bias.
I added the sell price column which is the next reversal in the opposite direction at the given time level. I can only update those number regularly for the DOW, V, WMT, and DIS since those are the ones for which I have subscriptions.
If someone wants to give me formulas for the other metrics then I'll add them to the sheet. What is the benefit of the other data in determining Socrates performance specifically which would be buy the reversal and sell on the stop loss (election of the opposite reversal)?
Anyone using the Private Blog or Socrates Pro, please post trades in real time...
...and use only Reversal Elections on the Weekly+ timeframe.
...and use only Reversal Elections on the Weekly+ timeframe.
Exactly why I have the Google sheet that I will continue to maintain. Trades use the open price the day after a reversal is elected and will sell when a reversal in the opposite direction is elected. If anyone has any other data points for me I'd be more than happy to add them to the sheet. I will likely be purchasing some further snapshot reports over the weekend and will enter that data, as well. The Nasdaq, Hang Seng, Shanghai, Gold, Oil and some individual stocks are on the top of my list. As of the close today there were no further bullish or bearish reversals on the weekly level for the DOW, S&P 500, COST, DIS, V, or WMT.
I've only gone back a few pages in the thread so far, but one of the things I wanted to mention that was talked about was essentially if MA was a charlatan. Having read his blog since 2015 there have been a number of long-term predictions that have been amazingly accurate. I'll try to go back and find the posts where he made the predictions as I think I probably have a number of them saved. But for now the ones I remember that stand out the most were:
These were all predictions based on Socrates reversals and not MA's opinion and they were all measurable and correct. There are plenty of other things like the rise in 3rd parties winning, independence movements, BREXIT, and Trump that are pretty much verifiable, as well. Essentially, there is enough here that makes it clear that if he says something is going to happen at the very minimum it is worth the time to investigate.
So I'm fairly confident from what he's said that we will see the trade of a lifetime in the next few years. I'm pretty sure we'll see that unfold as soon as we start electing the next weekly and bullish reversals in the DOW in the 26600-26700 area. We've already retested that area twice now and most often it's the third time that we see the follow through.
- The collapse in the Euro being put off because it held 1.06 in 2016
- The bottom in oil February 2016
- Gold needs to close a month above $1365 to be bullish again
- In 2016: The DOW would need to close a month above $18500 before making a run to $23000
- In 2017: The DOW would need to close a month above $23500 before making a run to the $26K-$28K range
- January 2018: Socrates was strongly warning that the rally was done
These were all predictions based on Socrates reversals and not MA's opinion and they were all measurable and correct. There are plenty of other things like the rise in 3rd parties winning, independence movements, BREXIT, and Trump that are pretty much verifiable, as well. Essentially, there is enough here that makes it clear that if he says something is going to happen at the very minimum it is worth the time to investigate.
So I'm fairly confident from what he's said that we will see the trade of a lifetime in the next few years. I'm pretty sure we'll see that unfold as soon as we start electing the next weekly and bullish reversals in the DOW in the 26600-26700 area. We've already retested that area twice now and most often it's the third time that we see the follow through.
I agree looking forward things get muddy looking at monthly arrays and trying to extrapolate forward,
Well that good it's not just me then
its very frustrating and adding to that would be Martins blogs during selloffs. He tends to get worked up talking about major support areas so far from price. The Dec low comes to mind, the only number I shouldve cared about was 21,600.
Yeah, I've gotten confused a number of times on the blog because he seems to talk about different time units within the same conversation. But having access to the data myself to parse through has made a world of difference. The two most obvious things that Socrates was pointing to in the DOW were a pause in trend in February which the weekly and daily arrays pinpointed to 2/25 and picked the high to the day, and then this week. It did a really good job with WMT, too. It was bobbing between $97 and $100 for two months and then early April a weekly bullish hit and it took off. As I said, though, I haven't really built up enough confidence in interpreting the data for signals or come up with a great trading strategy yet (especially an exit strategy) so it hasn't benefited me as much as I would have liked. Position trading on the daily reversals doesn't seem to be a great option when they are often close together but your strategy of using them for entry/exit points for longer term trades makes a lot of sense.
Glad to find some discussion on this topic...I've subscribed to the pro version of the ask-socrates service since mid-February and am still trying to figure out the best way to use it for developing a trading strategy. So hoping to add some useful information and gain some knowledge from the discussion here.
To start with, I've got a Google sheet showing the performance of the weekly and monthly reversals of the assets I have access to.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZJ8y06rALN-1eUPX_1ZbAfJ4SPP1oM_LcMHg5fsLW_I/edit#gid=941090084
I have subscriptions to the DOW, V, WMT, and DIS and purchased snapshot reports for S&P 500, COST, and EUR.USD last week (haven't done the EUR.USD performance yet but unsurprisingly it's been all bearish)
Without any other signals the performance for these assets has performed admirably. As suggested, adding in the arrays for analysis should provide a significant increase in performance, as well. For example, the arrays for the DOW, WMT, and V were all pointing to May on the monthly level and 5/6 on the weekly level as being the strongest target with directional changes. As a comparison, COST and DIS both have directional changes for May, however, this month is not the strongest target for either of those assets. You can see the performance since the close 5/3 on the 2nd tab in the sheet. As of the close yesterday (5/10) DIS and COST have held up better than the other 4. So even though the reversals were firing off for SPY, DIS and WMT with all the directional changes in the arrays they did not look like promising trades so I held off on opening any positions.
So my strategy at this point is to just go with the inverse ETF on the DOW (SDOW) since we failed to elect the weekly and monthly reversals in the 26600-26700 before the directional changes hit and either wait for bearish reversals to fire off for any of these assets or just hold until we approach a bottom. I'm hoping someone can shed some light on what the arrays are indicating and let me know if my analysis makes sense:
Monthly Data:
May was a directional change and June is our next turning point so we should see a decline into June with the opposite into July which is a panic cycle month. We then see the opposite trend into September which is the strongest target. Based on that I would expect to look for an exit point in June using the weekly arrays unless we get a stronger correction and the weekly bearish reversals start getting elected. If that's the case then the July panic cycle might start to looks like an outside reversal to the upside (i think only electing bearish reversals would indicate that???) so holding on for a bottom in July would then make sense. The weekly arrays should provide what is needed to determine those moves...
Weekly Data:
The commentary states: "there is a chance of a decline moving into the week of April 29th with the opposite trend thereafter into the week of May 20th" and then "The strongest target in the Weekly array is the week of June 3rd for a turning point ahead, at least on a closing basis. It does appear we have a choppy period starting the week of May 20th until the week of June 3rd with each target producing the opposite direction for that 3-week period."
I'm having a lot more trouble with this array. Going into this week the arrays looked pretty clear that we were approaching the end of this rally. But when I look at the most current version of the arrays the arrays and write-up don't seem to be lining up with what I see when I just look at the array and what has happened in the market to this point. There are directional changes this week (5/6) and next week (5/13). This week's directional change was pretty clear and initially I expected a decline to continue at least into the next turning point (5/20) and potentially through the week of 6/3 which is the strongest target. But there is a directional change for next week and the write-up indicates a rally into 5/20 so that really muddies the water. Maybe that's because the water is muddy at this point since the monthly and weekly arrays are not showing the same trend but I just don't have enough experience with the arrays to make that determination.
Any thoughts or insights are much appreciated.
To start with, I've got a Google sheet showing the performance of the weekly and monthly reversals of the assets I have access to.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZJ8y06rALN-1eUPX_1ZbAfJ4SPP1oM_LcMHg5fsLW_I/edit#gid=941090084
I have subscriptions to the DOW, V, WMT, and DIS and purchased snapshot reports for S&P 500, COST, and EUR.USD last week (haven't done the EUR.USD performance yet but unsurprisingly it's been all bearish)
Without any other signals the performance for these assets has performed admirably. As suggested, adding in the arrays for analysis should provide a significant increase in performance, as well. For example, the arrays for the DOW, WMT, and V were all pointing to May on the monthly level and 5/6 on the weekly level as being the strongest target with directional changes. As a comparison, COST and DIS both have directional changes for May, however, this month is not the strongest target for either of those assets. You can see the performance since the close 5/3 on the 2nd tab in the sheet. As of the close yesterday (5/10) DIS and COST have held up better than the other 4. So even though the reversals were firing off for SPY, DIS and WMT with all the directional changes in the arrays they did not look like promising trades so I held off on opening any positions.
So my strategy at this point is to just go with the inverse ETF on the DOW (SDOW) since we failed to elect the weekly and monthly reversals in the 26600-26700 before the directional changes hit and either wait for bearish reversals to fire off for any of these assets or just hold until we approach a bottom. I'm hoping someone can shed some light on what the arrays are indicating and let me know if my analysis makes sense:
Monthly Data:
May was a directional change and June is our next turning point so we should see a decline into June with the opposite into July which is a panic cycle month. We then see the opposite trend into September which is the strongest target. Based on that I would expect to look for an exit point in June using the weekly arrays unless we get a stronger correction and the weekly bearish reversals start getting elected. If that's the case then the July panic cycle might start to looks like an outside reversal to the upside (i think only electing bearish reversals would indicate that???) so holding on for a bottom in July would then make sense. The weekly arrays should provide what is needed to determine those moves...
Weekly Data:
The commentary states: "there is a chance of a decline moving into the week of April 29th with the opposite trend thereafter into the week of May 20th" and then "The strongest target in the Weekly array is the week of June 3rd for a turning point ahead, at least on a closing basis. It does appear we have a choppy period starting the week of May 20th until the week of June 3rd with each target producing the opposite direction for that 3-week period."
I'm having a lot more trouble with this array. Going into this week the arrays looked pretty clear that we were approaching the end of this rally. But when I look at the most current version of the arrays the arrays and write-up don't seem to be lining up with what I see when I just look at the array and what has happened in the market to this point. There are directional changes this week (5/6) and next week (5/13). This week's directional change was pretty clear and initially I expected a decline to continue at least into the next turning point (5/20) and potentially through the week of 6/3 which is the strongest target. But there is a directional change for next week and the write-up indicates a rally into 5/20 so that really muddies the water. Maybe that's because the water is muddy at this point since the monthly and weekly arrays are not showing the same trend but I just don't have enough experience with the arrays to make that determination.
Any thoughts or insights are much appreciated.